ORCL — All updates

Oracle just reported quarterly financial results and the stock is up over 3% in the after market hours. The company reported an additional $30 billion in backlog just from 3 months earlier and it's RPO, remaining performance obligations, have soared to $664 billion.

But does all of this make Oracle stock a buying still? Remember I've had the stock ranked as a buy, so I'm happy to see the share price increasing. But let me share with you these latest results and let me share with you my updated estimates for fair value and update you on my ranking for buy, hold, or sell for Oracle stock following these results.

I felt the results were great, but the what Wall Street hates the stock. It really is interesting. After hours trading, this this stock was up about 7 or 8% yesterday after the results came out.

The stock was performing well in the first couple hours of trading this morning and really fell off.

Now, this morning we did get CPI data and that's what I mean by that, right? So, we've seen oil rally up all week long until the pullback today. Sure, it hit my key4 104 level and pulled back, but still it was a tremendous move recently in oil and that added inflation issues that really the Fed has to come out and combat now.

So obviously we have escalation in the Middle East continuing over the straight of Hormuz. Now the Red Sea, now strikes by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia, oil facilities. All of this adding to the turmoil that adds to inflation.

Now let's talk about the CPI report here today. So CPI report coming out this morning basically in line except for one number that was hotter than expected. Yesterday I discussed how if we had an amazingly good acrosstheboard CPI report maybe the Fed wouldn't have to hike.

That didn't happen. We got a inline slightly hotter than expected CPI report. You can see right there core CPI coming in hotter than expected at 3% versus the 2% anticipated. Every other number was in line.

It's done folks. the Fed is going to have to hike next week no matter what the president says. All right, so that's number one. Now, speaking of which, let's talk a little bit about what the Fed or what the odds are because this is pretty remarkable, folks.

The odds of a Fed rate hike next Wednesday sit right now at 86.5% chance. In Fed terms, that's essentially a sure thing. That's as almost as good as the the inside information that some of our politicians trade off of.

I mean, that is that good. Now, again, how do we play this? There's not really a major way. But my point still remains is that this is a lock for a raise next week. And there's no major economic data.

I mean, the only thing that could maybe sway is if the the price of oil gapped sharply lower by like $20 next week on a deal. Even then, it's likely the Fed will be raising rates.

All right. So, we have a scenario here where next week we have a two-day Fed meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. The decisions out at 2:00. Then at 2:30 there'll be a press conference.

Those are the main factors that we need to watch next week. We're kind of in this interim period now after Oracle earnings.

Oracle moving higher this morning after an earnings beat and guidance that exceeded estimates. The company still expects CapEx between 90 and 95 billion for fiscal 2027.

So, Oracle, they reported earnings buck 92 per share on an adjusted basis. Revenue up almost 30% to 19.3 such more than 19.3 billion.

These Oracle earnings might mark a turning point. So, we'll see.

Wow. Oracle actually went negative. That was not on the bingo board. So, that is somewhat surprising. There's still some debt raising that needs to be done, but that's okay.

Oracle keeps a lid on capex as customers pay upfront.

The other big player today reporting earnings, Oracle, man, Oracle so beaten up, so far away from its highs like a year ago. 56% down from its recent highs in June down about 40% heading into earnings.

They're they're they were expected to do well and they absolutely crushed it, right? Beating EPS by 10% um beating revenue uh having great guidance moving forward. Everything was pointing up for uh for Oracle.

Oracle is it's having difficulty maintaining some momentum that we saw earlier. So uh with Oracle, I mean I get the debt story. Um I mean I mean a lot of people are very concerned about them you know taking on tons and tons and tons of debt.

yeah as Tim was kind of saying it's this race against time for Oracle they are uh you know doing this massive capex spending and it is yet to be seen if the revenues that they are uh going to derive from it can catch up to the amount they've spent.

You know, tens of billions of dollars at this point here.

Uh Brett says, "Oracle and Adobe, let's see those premiums at the open." Two of the big earnings reports. Oracle Restoration Hardware gapping up.

The first one is probably the most obvious. It is indeed Oracle, ticker OCL. It rose 6.97% in the pre-market on Friday after it reported better than expected first quarter financial results and raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance.

simple slide just showing Oracle's overall revenue and revenue growth rate this quarter. Yes, it was basically sequentially flat revenue at 19.3 billion compared to 19.2 billion 3 months ago.

But notice the seasonality that is historically there for Oracle as a legacy software vendor from Q4 to its Q1 fiscal year from May to August uh has been erased. No more sequential downturn.

They had a sequential uptick. 30% year-over-year revenue growth.

From an equity standpoint, Oracle earnings, we had that yesterday. We are seeing that stock move to the upside, maybe reducing some of the fears about capex spending and the return on investment.

>> Yeah, we are seeing the shares up. They're up about 5% in the session here. They were able to beat both on the top and bottom line. Revenue came in at 19.3 billion for the quarter.

Street was looking for 19.14 billion. That's around a 30% increase on a year-over-year basis. and cloud revenue also did exceed the street's expectations slightly, but they did still meet or beat the street's expectations.

Now, the free cash flow, I think, is one of the big headline movers for this earnings announcement that actually came in at5.4 billion, which obviously is still a loss, but you are actually comparing that to the expectation from the street of cash flow uh negative being around $9.56 billion.

So they have actually readjusted their strategy a little bit looking for more prepayments when it comes to these deals that they are signing and they're leveraging those prepayments in order to uh operate their business rather than going into their cash reserves or uh some of their their bond reserves if you will.

So that's something that the street is al also recognizing the software side of their business a little bit light here but the guidance was also relatively strong and so we are seeing the shares up and the fear that maybe capex spend is going to continue to reacelerate to the upside for Oracle.

Their CFO is pretty much saying at this point in time they have no plans for that and if they do obviously that impact will actually happen in the fiscal year 2028 for some of the newer clients that they do bring on which once again is a side really for the market.

Second subject up here we're going to talk about Oracle and Adobe. Their earnings have come out. I want to share my opinion and perspectives on if I like those stocks, if I don't, those sorts of things.

Oracle. Listen. The numbers are good. It's an A- minus grade here, okay? Revenue's up 30% for the company. That's a strong number and we're looking at a constant currency basis, always important to look at that, right?

Oracle just sent a massive warning to SpaceX. And Oracle earnings just gave us a big middle finger to that underwriting.

Oracle OpenAI sound signs 300 billion-dollar deal. But, wait a minute. For how many gigawatts is it? Because if we take a 300 billion-dollar deal and divide it by the gigawatts, divide it by how many years it is, then we're going to find out how close it is to 50.

We got Oracle, we got Adobe, and we got Restoration Hardware on deck today.

We do have big earnings today. Restoration Hardware, Oracle, and Adobe will be looking at those. Uh Adobe and Oracle are going to come out first at 5 minutes after the bell and then Restoration Hardware will be 5 minutes after that.

Well, and Oracle made us wait an extra five and a half minutes, but they've just sent their numbers across the wire, so let's dive in here. We've got revenue coming in at 19.35 billion.

The estimate was looking for 19.13, so a clean beat there. Also a clean beat on EPS, $1.92. The estimate was looking for $1.75. Their operating income for the first quarter, 8.15 billion.

The expectation was for 7.81. Operating margins coming in better than expected at 42%. Cloud infrastructure revenue, that's at 7.39 billion. That's also better than expected. Their software support revenue at 4.9 billion, a beat there as well.

Software licensing revenue, 655 million. That's just slightly under the 718.8 million dollar consensus that the street was looking for here. But, we are up and more than 9% right now.

They're also uh looking across their second quarter, which will be their current quarter. EPS they're projecting to be a dollar 85 to a dollar 93. We'll call that in line. The consensus uh was looking uh for about a dollar 90 here, a dollar 89.

So, uh they've got their outlook here for EPS um in line with maybe perhaps a touch low at the midpoint there. Um but, how are you looking at these numbers? I mean, the street is accepting them.

There were a lot of always questions around Oracle with the CapEx and their debt and their free cash flow. Uh but, we are up 7 and uh 3/4% right now.

Let's go deep now on a big name and that is Oracle and preview today's earnings report in our tech spotlight. I think about Oracle and I remember a year ago where they had one report where the stock was up 30% and wow that was a lot of fun.

But um look we've saw a selloff uh we see sell-offs and rallies when it comes to this. You know there were two selloffs in the last few. So, what do you think um is happening here?

The options market is actually betting a lot on volatility.

You also have uh I think Oracle earnings, right?

VR wants to take a look at Oracle. So, Oracle up 5.68%. Oracle back above the trend line. Oracle actually testing its 200 day. Be very curious to see if we can get a close above this on the 200 day for Oracle.

They have earnings in two days, too. So, that's probably going to be our biggest earnings report this week.

And Oracle, another name with a massive RPO backlog. Theirs was I think close to $640 billion. But, they are also spending heavily. They had negative free cash flow. There's a lot of debt conversations and concerns about that debt.

How do you determine whether the enormous backlog that Oracle has is an opportunity or a financing risk? We see it as an opportunity and we start we think as some of these data centers come online, it'll start to work through that and alleviate some of those concerns.