Oracle's high debt, negative free cash flow, and credit downgrade make it a risky investment and a potential market warning sign.

This week, Oracle invoked its force majeure clause. Am I saying it correctly, Lou? In one of its contracts related to the Stargate project.

Interestingly, Oracle and its partners in this matter are completely ignoring the issue. Yes, that's what really caught my attention, Emily , that they took it lightly . The stock price dropped slightly and then recovered, as if to say, "No, this is..."

The remaining performance commitments of OpenAI are a major reason to own Oracle shares today. When do we see the use of the force majeure clause ? Because this does n't make headlines very often.

When have we heard so much about him before? For example, the COVID-19 pandemic is a clear example. Parties usually seek to terminate contracts in exceptional and unforeseen circumstances .

Unfortunately, we are not aware of the details of the contract between Oracle and its developer. But we have some indications, as there have been reports that Oracle is apparently responsible for providing power to this data center.

We have seen headlines suggesting that this could present a challenge , including obtaining the necessary approvals for this deal. If I had to guess , I think they are trying to invoke the force majeure clause because they are unable to provide the necessary power within the expected timeframe.

As a result, they do not expect the project to be completed on time . However, it should be noted that... although everyone says that this is not the case, we will adhere to all of these deadlines.

I repeat, I do not believe that the force majeure clause should be invoked unless there is something happening behind the scenes that is of grave concern. If there isn't something going on behind the scenes that is deeply concerning , why is Oracle fighting for a few cents this decade by getting negative headlines?

This raises another question: Is this an indication of Oracle's current financial situation?

correct. I think the most interesting question is: Why them ? And why now? Look, I'm not surprised that it's Oracle that's interfering, not Alphabet or Meta. As you know, we have only talked about relative strength, not about Oracle not having any money.

They also have well-established businesses. But they were the ones who started it from the beginning. It's ridiculous. This is a group of characters. This includes everyone. Blue Owl is involved here.

Everyone we talked about, really? They are all involved in this . So, maybe that's all. But why now too?

Because, as Emily pointed out, I haven't been following this project, which, like other data center projects, has been under criticism for months. I wonder, are any of Oracle's funders worried?

Is Oracle considering a return to the debt markets? That is the question being asked of them. Therefore , they are trying to show their strength. This could just be a conspiracy theory, and Oracle could be conducting its end-of-quarter assessment and realizing it needs to update its data.

But I think this is not routine, and perhaps it confirms what we already know, which is that we were right to question the strength of this group of players compared to others.

But the interesting thing, Travis, is that I see this as never to be repeated, or it will be the highlight of our annual review , the Bear Stearns moment.

Looking at the numbers , I just looked at Oracle's balance sheet as of the end of August 2026, where its cash balance was $37 billion, while its debt was $125 billion .

One of the things I constantly monitor is the cost of these debts. I regularly follow the Oracle and CoreWave companies. The cost of these debts has increased significantly.

The challenge seems to be that the entire market is investing in AI development , but that development, from giant cloud computing providers to modern cloud computing and Oracle, is now debt-based .

The cost of this debt is rising, and it's rising for everyone, but it's rising even more for these companies, because the bond markets are starting to ask: "Is there really a big return here?"

Yes, and you can look at the credit default spreads on a lot of debt, especially Oracle debt, and you will see how wide these spreads are, indicating weak demand in secondary markets, meaning that buyers of this debt are taking it at a large discount compared to the expected returns, which, in my opinion, reflects the perceived risks behind many of these companies.

I think it is worth mentioning, as I have stated before and will repeat, that Oracle serves as a warning sign, given its high debt. It has recently faced a downgrade in its credit rating, and its free cash flows are negative.

It did not have the huge balance sheet that many other giant companies had when these initiatives began and expanded into building massive data centers .

So, when I think about companies going under, to the point that some people think they will, Oracle is the most prominent example. It's somewhat like the first domino to fall.

This is why we focus so strongly on why they are so keen, in this case, to reduce the expected increase in rent over two years if they cannot resort to the force majeure clause.

If this starts happening to Oracle , who else might it happen to ? Okay, so has Blue All been exposed here? No, Oracle was not exposed here.

I don't wish Oracle any harm, but perhaps if things go as planned, we will be able to answer some of these questions instead of just speculating about them.