SMH leads risk-on sentiment; current breakout may face rejection unless confirmed by daily closes above the 50-day MA.

Next up into the SMH. Now, this is really where the story is, guys, and I've told you guys this for a long time. The SMH, the semis, they lead the way. They illustrate how much risk-on appetite there is in the growth sector with these semiconductors, especially with this AI data center build-out.

So, let's Let's into this chart and really break it down, all right? So, we see here what we've got going on for any of the new viewers, all right? We've got the low uh isolated down here from the April 2025 lows, and you can see we have an inclining parallel channel that encapsulated most all of that price action until we deviated here in March and then ripped right through the top end of it.

And you can see over the last few dips, we keep coming back down into this parallel channel. Now, the last 3 days have taken us straight through the top of the parallel. On Friday, we paused, sold off at the once we reached the top.

Now, today, we gapped up over it, allowing more space overhead to run, very similar to what occurred here back on August 17th.

And notice what happens when I flip on the daily moving averages, we also have a very similar situation. Price gapped up over this daily 50 moving average in blue, much like what it did back here.

But, the following day sold off back under this declining trendline, uh not securing and confirming a breakout. So, we're in a very, as I said, similar scenario here. One candle closing up above this inclining parallel channel.

Will we follow that up tomorrow? Well, history shows us we likely will not and likely see a rejection from this breakout. But, that's something I'm monitoring very closely.

I've been talking ever since this decline that the markets will likely get into more near-term bullish uh sentiment if and when we start putting in daily closes above this 50 moving average on the SMH specifically.

You can see here we closed basically right at that 50 moving average. Tomorrow, do we extend up above today's candle? We'll have to see. That then would lead more towards bullish activity leading through next week, which is the FOMC.