SMH — All updates

if I hover over the dialogue box next to SMH, there's a note that tells us that the daily cycle might show strength because the synced trough might already be in place.

So this is a very early turn here right now in the SMH to just be monitoring right now. We haven't actually cleared any kind of range highs yet, but uh this is something to certainly be aware of.

Right on the SMH, SMH comp uh performing extremely well compared to the Q's and the S&P up around 2%, guys. Not quite filled that gap from Wednesday, right? But a 2% move up uh is not too shabby for uh the semiconductor industry, right?

And speaking of downs sloping trend lines, we have this really, really key downstoping trend line that we just broke above today. You can see we've tested it here, here, here, broke above it, right?

Actually opened up above it, came back down, right? Went below, retested it, and now are looking to potentially break above it.

Uh next up into the SMH. And guys, I remind you as I do nearly every day, the SMH is my leading indicator. And what were we looking for today? We were looking for price to get up above yesterday's highs and close.

Well, we didn't get that to accomplish on the charts. Cleanly, as you see here, is the daily candle. Yesterday's high was up here at $58057. We didn't even breach that level on intraday trading.

Next up into the SMH. Now, this is really where the story is, guys, and I've told you guys this for a long time. The SMH, the semis, they lead the way. They illustrate how much risk-on appetite there is in the growth sector with these semiconductors, especially with this AI data center build-out.

Interestingly enough, SMH, we've actually been watching SMH and IGV. Some days it seems like the hardware gets pounded and the software trades all right and then the next day it's reversed.

So, we've been kind of looking at both of those. The SMH here, this looked to me like it was button up against the 50. Now, today I know it's early. It's still in the pre-market. We're trading above the 50 here.

Now, I'm going to move on here to the SMH index. What did you say about SMH? We received a request regarding SMH earlier in the program, and I said I would present it here.

Interestingly, I do n't usually analyze this indicator; Katie and RV are following this , and you can see that they were expecting this market to move downwards in this timeframe.

There was a previous low here that aligns with the earlier low I'm going to show you in the Nasdaq index, and as you can see, they have a signal indicating a possible drop again.

Okay, what I'm going to do now is switch to the SMH index. So, what did you say about SMH? We received a request for SMH analysis earlier in the program, and I said I would present it here.

Interestingly, I do n't usually conduct an analysis of SMH; Katie or the RV team do, and you can see that they were expecting this market to move downwards in this timeframe. There was a previous low here that corresponds to the low I'm going to show you in the Nasdaq index, and you can see here that the indicators are pointing downwards, which means it may go down again.

Now what I'm going to do is I'm going to look at SMH, XLF, XBI as proxies for the stock market because how these align. Then we'll look at the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 uh and if uh have a little time we'll look at the VIX and then I'll show you the market condition monitor uh moving forward.

I've done this with this SMH in the past.

Next up into the semis, guys, and then as you all know, I love following the semis as a leading indicator. And guys, what happened Friday is something all of you guys can follow because I've tried to go step-by-step to help you understand whether we're going to be bullish near-term with the semi in uh with the semis or we're going to be a little bit bearish.

Most importantly, I'm gauging bullish sentiment with this chart right here, the SMH, guys. And the SMH, as you see here, finished basically flat on the day, down .01%. Now, after hours, slipping just ever so slightly in anticipation of these Nvidia earnings.

And I'll remind you guys, I've been highlighting these moving averages on this chart, and I've been doing so for a reason. You see this 50-daily moving average in blue that comes in through the screen.

We had one day above it, and then a technical sell-off from that point. The sell-off has pushed price back into the parallel channel that price has been contained since the liberation day lows.