S&P 500 likely breaks 50-day MA targeting ~7400; this level offers accumulation opportunity for year-end rally.

So, let me just bring up a chart of the of spiders here real quick. It's just not a great chart, but it works. Um, so this is the the S&P and there there's certainly some levels that we want to kind of look at and once we start getting over to to where we are.

The the 200 day moving average is way down here. It's uh on the SN on on spiders and using spiders right now as kind of a just a proxy for the S&P 500. That's around 715 718 on the S&P.

But to get down to that level, you're breaking down below two and three standard deviations of the 50-day moving average. So I I think the 50-day is, you know, kind of this potential support level.

We're probably going to take this out before the end of the month.

And again, a lot of it depends on what happens with the FOMC. A lot of it depends on a lot of things right now, but if we do take out this 50-day, I think we get down here towards potentially about 740ish, which is going to be two standard deviations below that 50-day moving average.

I, you know, so 7,400ish on the S&P is a likely downside target for the S&P.

I don't know if we get there, right? There's there's a there's a lot of momentum still in within the markets and we're not seeing a whole lot of negativity and and when you take a look at sentiment across the board from investors, investors are still fairly bullish and there's not a lot of major concern kind of overlying the markets right now.

So kind I would say around that 7,400 level is probably your your maximum downside risk at least for now.

Um midterms are going to be another issue. what happens between now and the midterm election. So, if you kind of use that 7,400 level as kind of your downside target, I think you can start accumulating there for potentially a November kind of that end of the year rally coming out of the midterm elections.

However, however those come out once the market can digest that outcome whether you know who controls the house, who controls the senate, is it a sweep, you know, whatever happens and what does that mean for policy?

Once the markets can get their hand their their hands around that outcome and gridlock would be the best outcome then I think the markets can rally into year end.

We'll see. But uh you know so again just from levels I I would watch the 50-day which is where we are right now. The 100 day is right below that where that's the 100 day sitting currently right around 7 7500ish and then below that around 7,400.

I think those are your key levels to watch here over the course of the next you know ne next couple of weeks next couple of months.