SPY — All updates

And finally, what we are going to do here is look at the stock market outlook for the S&P 500. It is Friday again, September 11, 2026. Obviously we have seen a very rangebound market uh seeing just even on social media uh folks getting very bearish at lows and very bullish at highs.

There in lies the trading range that we are really operating in right now. Um, that's why in future speak earlier this week, I was really trying to hone in uh on seeing the overall condition of those EMAs on the daily time frame to help you to filter the signals from the noise.

Right? If you're uh if you're only following price and simply staring at price, you are losing sight of what is really happening sometimes, right? So trying to find ways to simplify what you look at so that way what you are looking at is a more simplified matrix as opposed to all of those inputs that we could have access to.

So one of the things that has changed a lot over the years is we just have more and more external inputs that are at times clouding our judgment. Right? So in order to simplify that you have to look and see and and just ask the question what really matters here right in situations like this what really matters and often times what you will find is trying to strip down a lot of what you're looking at and simplify what you're looking at can actually lead to greater clarity and that is something I think that is very important And you know you've seen it with other traders over the years as they evolve right what they look at often times doesn't get more complicated it actually gets simpler uh so that is something that you know I would ask everyone to look hard at and understand if this was a week which you got really chopped understand and look at why that happened and what you can do in the future to learn and grow right every opportunity uh creates an opportunity for growth.

If we are in that mindset for it, if we look at it from a victim mindset, then we're in a whole another camp uh where we are unlikely to really see any meaningful change uh in our trading.

Okay? Every day gives us an opportunity and it's our job to seize that opportunity. We may not see change right away, but if you are consistent and finding opportunities and areas in and around trading for growth and development, right, that can compound over time and lead to more to more meaningful step changes uh in your overall trading performance.

So, that's something that I think is very important here. So, let's go ahead and uh jump into this S&P chart. We're going to look at our weekly and daily cycle analysis uh as usual.

And this is our weekly and daily cycle analysis for the S&P with of course the Slim MCM on the left here. As you're seeing on the intermediate term, it is now neutral. And in the short term, uh it is slightly bearish.

Let's go ahead and hop over now into the charts. And what you're seeing here is that there's a low that is due 810 to around 914 uh in the S&P. The RS is still positive. The overall translations are also very very strong.

We have moved down to this zone here uh from 7596 to around 7527 and so far that is holding uh and uh this is a very strong translation which does indicate that we are likely to see still new highs coming prior to year end as we get out into this next rising phase here.

If we jump over to the short term now earlier this week I highlighted that it is very important to find things that can help us to simplify what we are looking at and um one of those is the slim ribbon.

I like to ask the question are we in parallel to the upside in those EMAs? Are we in parallel to the downside or are we really flat and this is really a very flat situation here.

So, this is not a very bearish left-hand translation. This is a very choppy one where we have not seen a lot of follow-through below this low at 7638. You have a short-term low 914 to around 923.

The RS has been down, but again, a neutral ribbon. We are seeing a series of slightly lower highs and lower lows. But uh you know certainly this is a grind again a trough that is due 914 to 923.

There is a fib right around 7530. You now have this old low here from Thursday at 7580. And on the upside if we start moving through these old highs here at 70 at 7771 well obviously that would be more positive than anything else. right now very neutral stance uh in the market and that's why I think it is super important to hone in on market environment and staying attuned to that.

If you don't uh and you aren't following how either strong or weak a translation is, you may get caught getting overly bearish towards lows or overly bullish towards highs. This is a very choppy translation.

Plus, you have a flat EMA, right? That combination really spells traps all over the place.

I can see a bearish trend starting on the SPY. The 10 is now under the 20. Price is now under the 50.

S&P 500, this one has had a mild IDSS dip. And it's going to be just a I think a weak pullback rather than a total wash out. Again, it was very interesting yesterday. All of the I13 were on fire.

Every single one, including things like Bitcoin, etc. And the S&P 500 was down. So, that means people are selling the traditional names, traditional stocks. I don't track them.

I've got enough to track right now. But this was an interesting divergence between the Q's and the S&P 500.

You can see it better maybe in the spy. Just an unbelievable move up after a breakdown failure. This is the daily chart of the spy. The 20 MA is flat, so I'm not expecting it to really keep going. I'm expecting some back and forth first.

However, keep in mind that the market trend is upward. We have a new sell signal on the SPY indicator. By the way, I told you last week that I wouldn't go near this market and now we have another sell signal on SPY.

We talked about the reason, which is that everything shows a downward widening and I can never touch this market.

Now, regarding the S&P 500, by the way, I expect the first ten days of September to be tough . This is usually the period when technology stocks are most severely affected. Therefore , expect this indicator to decrease slightly as well.

However, the S&P 500 index continues to rise because money keeps being printed, and that thing keeps going up and up and up. It is still in an upward trend, there is still a buy signal, and there is no sell signal.

Therefore, despite the weakness in September, I will not short the S&P 500 because it is closely linked to the global money supply.

looking at the spy for instance I I did take a long trade on this bounce over here and then I'm still short some from over here. So, um, that I covered most of it and actually I covered a lot of it right here and sold back a little bit right here, but I I still have a core position short the SPY and the semiconductors as well.

All right, let's jump into the S&P 500 first with the SPY on the daily time frame. You can see here guys, what have I been saying was going to happen and what should happen because we talk about this in this show so often.

We talk about breakouts and retraces to that trend line from which it broke out from. We clearly see we have a high pivot back here on June 2nd. Today was the day we had price come back in and tag that exact same price point and get support and bounce up off of this range.

Now, if you take away everything that's going on in the background, this should be a bounce setup. We have three sharp days moving lower right into an area of support. We should be bouncing up tomorrow and testing the gap fill from trading action yesterday.

But with the macro backdrop and with price action already coming so close to this level of support in essence weakening this area, that's reducing probabilities of a potential bounce.

But, I would not be surprised to see us up and close positive tomorrow just because of the technicals on the chart. We very well likely will need help in the 10-year yield and US oil department for that bounce to materialize.

Let's talk about you the 20-day. You actually noted that on the S&P 500, you were watching the 20-day, right? What does that tell you? So, well, we're below the 20-day now. So, you know, normally what we want to see is a positive test to that support level today, tomorrow.

Based on developments, doesn't look like we're going to get it. So, the next level of support is going to be the um 100 day moving average. Sorry, the 50-day moving average. And that that's a little over 1% away.

Next one after that is the 200 day moving average that clocks in a little over 3%. So, not a lot of downside arguably, uh, but potential areas of support that we will need to see that they hold.

And if they do, that can bring about some buying opportunities, you know, for others in the market, maybe even for us at the Pro Portfolio.

Now, if it's a down payment, you're going to be saving for the next 7 or 10 years, yeah, go throw it in the S&P. Go throw it in whatever dividend fund you want to here and earn some interest, move up with the markets over the next, you know, several years.

I'm not worried about the interest I'm not getting the compound growth cuz it's not invested in the S&P.