Tesla transforms into an autonomy and robotics platform; Optimus becomes the primary profit driver by mid-2040s in the base case.

This is a plain English reading of my 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model base case. Over the next two decades, the model does not treat SpaceX and Tesla as nice growth companies.

It treats them as engines that can reorganize how the world moves bits, atoms, energy, and intelligence.

Today, they are already large. By the mid-2030s, in this base case, their combined scale looks less like two successful tech firms and more like a pair of industrial civilizations sitting on top of the global economy.

By the mid-2040s, the base case is extreme, even by the standards of ambitious long-term forecasts. SpaceX operating profit alone is measured in the trillions of dollars per year, and Tesla's autonomy and robotics businesses have grown from nearly nothing into pillars that dwarf the old car company.

Tesla. From car company to autonomy and labor. In 2026, Tesla in the model is still largely the company the public knows. Vehicles drive most of the profit. Energy storage is a meaningful second act and software, full self-driving, is a growing but not yet dominant slice.

Robo-taxi and Optimus are almost invisible in the early numbers.

Through the 2030s, the mix changes. Cars still sell, but they stop being the whole story. Energy, especially utility-scale storage, scales into a real industrial franchise as grids and AI load demand more batteries while ASP declines on a learning curve.

Full self-driving software scales with the fleet. Robo-taxi, once the network and regulation allow unsupervised miles at significant scale, becomes a real transportation platform with major financial impact to Tesla's bottom line.

Optimus, still early in the mid-2030s, is the seed of something much larger.

By the mid-2040s, in the base case, Tesla's business is transformed. Vehicle hardware profits, relative to the rest of the company, are a speck. Energy storage now sees annual deployments in the vicinity of 1 terawatt hour.

Autonomy, robo-taxi, is a major pillar, though still much smaller than Optimus in this base case. And Optimus, humanoid robots sold with software attached, becomes, in this model, the single largest Tesla profit engine.

The idea that Tesla does not only move people and store electrons, but also sells general-purpose labor. That is the dominant story, not more Model Ys, but Tesla as the operating system for physical work and autonomous mobility.

The upside is that cars fund the data and manufacturing muscle. Then autonomy and robots re-rate the company into a different industry altogether.

On a combined basis, the base case fair value of the two companies together as of 2026, looking forward out to 2046, sits in multi-trillion-dollar territory. Larger than either company alone and larger than many people's intuition for what's possible. That is intentional.

The model is not asking, will they grow 15% a year? It is asking, what if reusable launch, global connectivity, AI infrastructure, or autonomy, and humanoid labor all partially work?

A merger is optional in this model, not assumed as destiny. Merger synergies, if a deal closes, are real, but they're secondary. Shared manufacturing, AI, and overhead savings matter, but they're not the main story.

The main story is that SpaceX and Tesla attack different bottlenecks of the same future. Energy, transport, compute, intelligence, and labor, and each one's success makes the others world more plausible.

If this narrative feels aggressive, good, it should. The next 20 years in this file are not a quiet compounding narrative. They are a bet that a small number of platforms can become the backbone of how a more energy-rich, more automated, more intelligent world actually runs.

And there you have it, a plain English reading of my 20-year SpaceX and Tesla valuation model in the base case.

The last question is a scenario of a merger between these two companies. I believe that the idea will be proposed to investors. I think that is only a matter of time. No one would question whether or not it makes sense for these two companies to become one.

It obviously does. The only big variable here is whether enough Tesla shareholders would vote in favor of a merger for it to actually take place.

This is why my combined model includes a 20-year model for SpaceX plus an independent 20-year model for Tesla in the same spreadsheet. And also a few different sheets relating to the potential of a merger.

If it happens, what year does it happen? What are the financial benefits, the synergies, and most important of all, what's a fair ratio in the event of a merger? Is it 50/50? Spoiler alert, no. 60/40? 20/80?

I think a very important thing for Tesla and SpaceX investors, but in particular Tesla investors to consider is what's the intrinsic value of both Tesla and SpaceX over the long term.

If a merger is proposed, you want to have done your homework ahead of time and really thought about this. So you're making an informed decision.

One of the dedicated sheets inside my 20-year valuation model includes exactly that, the fair merger ratio based on my estimated fair value in the base case for both SpaceX and Tesla over the 20-year horizon.

What are they both worth today? And therefore, what would be the fair ratio in the event of a merger?

Now, that said, obviously Tesla investors would want somewhat of a premium above the fair value of Tesla.

The bottom line, these two companies belong together. I strongly suspect we'll get to vote on this very outcome soon, and I urge everyone to make sure they've thought about this ahead of time, rather than being surprised or unsure and uncertain about what's fair, what's reasonable, and how you'll vote.

Together, the next 20 years for Tesla and SpaceX will be unfuckingbelievably awesome.