Speaker defends Tesla's CyberCab launch against negative media coverage, viewing Elon Musk as a visionary and the event as successful despite regulatory concerns.
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Tesla shares are slowing down today following the launch of the much-hyped CyberCube event featuring a car without brakes and without a steering wheel. The company did not broadcast the event live as it had done with previous dazzling shows such as "Cyber Truck".
Tesla has now registered approximately 48 Cyber Cab vehicles in Texas, although a federal filing estimates production at around 1,000 of them.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is currently evaluating Tesla's launch and self-certification process. This is according to Reuters. What is the reason? Because it is a self-driving vehicle that lacks a steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors.
Regardless, as I said, public passenger flights began today in a limited part of Austin, Texas. What's wrong with the media that doesn't give Elon Musk any room to make mistakes?
They were, I mean, every report about this was negative, even though it presents, as I mentioned, a car without a steering wheel, without pedals, and without mirrors, isn't that right ?
A car that will drive you autonomously, and they will do so at a much lower cost than Waymo, because they rely on cameras, not radar or LiDAR. It's revolutionizing the way we get around, and everyone's saying, "Oh, you know, the event wasn't broadcast live."
So, they were angry. I cannot understand why this man's image is being distorted in this way in everything he does. So, yes, you know, you read the Wall Street Journal story, it sounds like it was a mistake and a bad night, when in fact it was quite the opposite .
But they want the pace to be faster and they are unhappy with how quickly things are happening. He promised to deliver it by 2025 and fully launch it in 2026 , and they are holding him to those dates while he changes the world.
It's astonishing to me, Diane, how bizarre the media coverage of Elon Musk is. Therefore, I disagree with the general trend here. I think he's changing the world. It's truly amazing. I truly believe he is a visionary.
But when I get in the car, my foot feels like pressing, you know, what would stop your foot from pressing the pedal? You have certain reactions that appear when you are inside a vehicle .
Yes. Yes. You trust machines far more than I trust humans. I trust machines much more, Diane. This is my quick opinion.
Yes, I thought we should start adopting this because I found it amazing. I saw some pictures posted by people even though they did not broadcast the event live . But it's really great.
Just the large screen in the middle with doors that open upwards. You know, they will start providing flights to the public tomorrow at 5 pm. That would be an advantage.
I think the real concern, aside from the lack of, you know, perhaps the clarity of the live stream that many wanted, is the reality of how they are going to scale this up? How will they obtain approvals?
The National Highway Traffic Safety Board started an investigation into CyberCab because they have no controls or standards to rely on; they are used to looking at cars with a steering wheel and pedals.
Therefore, they have nothing to base their arguments on . Therefore, there will be an investigation into this matter. That might be part of the anxiety.
The stock rose based on this news. That's why you might see the decline today, just a lack of clarity. But it's all about future expansion. How will they be able to increase production?
How will they be able to place these cars in different cities?
Because, as Kevin mentioned, I'm not afraid of machines. I mean, I drove in Chicago, there are a lot of reckless drivers around here. I trust these electric "cybercabs" much more than the drivers in my neighborhood.
So, yes, I think this will be the real indicator: how will they be able to implement all these ambitious projects, whether it's CyberCab or Optimus humanoid robots, increase their production, use and sales?
As you know, free cash flow is decreasing, and the gross profit margin has declined for their electric vehicle business at this stage.
So yes, there are some concerns here, but hey, I thought it was really cool, and if they ever bring it to Chicago, I'll be the first in line to try it out despite the lack of a steering wheel.
Therefore, I am in favor of Full Self-Driving (FSD). But I'm not sure about the brakes.
We haven't yet addressed the question of, if you were on a date, who would sit on which side of the vehicle. We will not delve into this matter. I wanted to give myself some time here.
So I chose a three-week period. I looked at the unbalanced call butterfly strategy . I bought a call option at approximately the market price of 355. In fact, the price is slightly lower now.
I bought a call option of 355, and the move through September 25th is worth about $30. So, I bought an option at 355, sold two options at 385, and then bought one option at 395.
I spent about $7.70. The price is lower now. Around $7.10 or $7.15 now. It has dropped a little, but you have enough time . You have time to make things work in your favor, and you're buying this dip, Diane, and expecting a move that aligns with expectations of a return to 385, a level the stock almost reached yesterday.
It's reached 375. So, this is a deal that gives you time, gives you 21 days, and you're expecting a $30 rise, Diane.
Yes, let's take a look at Kevin's bullish trade here, which reduces the cost by using an unbalanced call butterfly strategy instead of a vertical option. Looking at the options for September 25th weekly.
So, we have 3 weeks until the expiry date. We have that amount of time available for a possible recovery. Buy a call option at an execution price of 355, and sell two options at an execution price of 385.
This is the level you want the stock to reach. Then buy a call option with an execution price of 395. Simply put, you buy a vertical upward call option with a range of $30, and you sell a vertical call option with a range of $10.
You are paying approximately the cost of a city of $7.70. This is the price at which it was traded previously. The stock price dropped slightly. It is probably trading now at a price closer to $7.20.
So , you can get a slightly cheaper price, but you'll need a larger percentage move to get past the breakeven point on this deal, which is around $362.70 up. That point, which is only about 3.5% above the current share price , gives you 3 weeks in that position.
You can see here from the risk profile that the maximum profitability is at or near where you sold two options, at or near the strike price of 385. But, even if the stock continues to move upwards and surpasses 395, the profit will still be more than double on this trade.
Therefore, doing an unbalanced or broken "option butterfly" strategy instead of just buying a 355-385 vertical call option reduces the cost of the entry point and that's your risk, isn't it?
$770 per spread in this deal. The discount you pay will be your risk in this, but you really need an upward move of approximately 3.5% to get past the breakeven point at 362.70 upwards.
Kevin, I chose a slightly less expensive option just to give myself some downside exposure , but it's really not a bearish deal, you know. It is closer to neutral with a slight tendency to fall.
I looked at the put options calendar here. I went to the September 25 weekly options that expire in 3 weeks, and bought a put option with an execution price of 340. It's out of profit about $11 down.
Then I sold the same put option 340 in the September 11 weekly options that expire in 7 days. So, this is a two-week bearish or neutral to bearish put options calendar here. You pay a discount of approximately $4.50 for that.
It is probably currently trading closer to 480 because the stock has moved closer to that execution price, which has led to an increase in its price. But how, when you look at a deal like this , you're paying around 450 for it.
That's your risk, $150, but you're targeting an execution price of 340. However, at the same time, you probably have a range between about 327 and 355 where you can still make a profit from this trade.
Yes, and you have a two-week calendar here that will allow you to extend the time if you don't get that move right away, but you're right, Tom. This deal is not only bearish, but it is also neutral in that it is accumulating "theta", is long in "vega" and is accumulating "theta", and this deal is likely to be good if we stay anywhere in this area right now.
So, yes, this is one example that illustrates the very flexible aspect of the "Calendar Spread" strategy. You don't really need the price to move down to the 340 level to make a profit.
The movement you are experiencing today is probably doing a lot of the work for you . So, as I said, this deal gives you the ability to extend its duration in the future, but it's a slightly bearish deal, Tom.
Yes, and that fact I mentioned about the possibility of repurchasing your short option as the expiry date approaches within the next seven days, and rolling it over to another weekly option.
Those transfers, especially if they are at the execution price, can expand to more than $5.5 or $6. Therefore , even a single adjustment could eliminate all your risks and start generating profitability, depending on the stock's position.
You also have some allocation risks on that short option over the next seven days, so keep that in mind.
So, we have a bearish Calendar Spread here, Diane, and Kevin's unbalanced bullish Call Butterfly trade on Tesla stock.
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