$TSLA

说话者认为特斯拉CyberCab的发布是成功的,尽管存在监管方面的担忧,并认为埃隆·马斯克是一位有远见的人,同时反驳了媒体的负面报道。

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Bull v. Bear: TSLA Cybercabs Hit Road, Accelerates GOOGL Waymo Competition
Schwab Network发布 2026-09-04 · 18 段内容
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18 段内容
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特斯拉股价今日放缓,此前备受期待的 CyberCube 活动推出了一款没有刹车和方向盘的汽车。该公司没有像之前“Cyber Truck”等精彩展示那样对活动进行直播。特斯拉现已在美国德克萨斯州注册了约 48 辆 Cyber Cab 车辆,尽管一份联邦文件估计产量约为 1000 辆。

Tesla shares are slowing down today following the launch of the much-hyped CyberCube event featuring a car without brakes and without a steering wheel. The company did not broadcast the event live as it had done with previous dazzling shows such as "Cyber Truck". Tesla has now registered approximately 48 Cyber Cab vehicles in Texas, although a federal filing estimates production at around 1,000 of them.

美国国家公路交通安全管理局目前正在评估特斯拉的发布和自行认证流程。这是根据路透社的报道。原因是什么?因为它是一辆缺乏方向盘、踏板或后视镜的自动驾驶汽车。

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is currently evaluating Tesla's launch and self-certification process. This is according to Reuters. What is the reason? Because it is a self-driving vehicle that lacks a steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors.

无论如何,正如我所说,公共载客航班今天在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的有限区域开始运营。媒体不让埃隆·马斯克有任何犯错的空间,这有什么问题?他们,我的意思是,关于这件事的每篇报道都是负面的,尽管它呈现的是一辆没有方向盘、没有踏板、没有后视镜的汽车,不是吗?

一辆会自动驾驶的汽车,而且成本远低于 Waymo,因为它们依赖摄像头,而不是雷达或激光雷达。它正在彻底改变我们的出行方式,而每个人都在说:“哦,你知道,活动没有直播。”所以,他们很生气。

我无法理解为什么这个人的形象在他所做的每一件事中都被这样扭曲。所以,是的,你知道,你读《华尔街日报》的报道,听起来像是一个错误和一个糟糕的夜晚,而事实上恰恰相反。但他们希望步伐更快,他们对事情发生的速度感到不满。

他承诺在 2025 年前交付,并在 2026 年全面推出,而他们在他改变世界的同时要求他遵守这些日期。黛安,对我来说,媒体对埃隆·马斯克的报道如此奇怪,令人震惊。因此,我不同意这里的普遍趋势。

我认为他在改变世界。这真的很了不起。我真心相信他是一个有远见的人。

Regardless, as I said, public passenger flights began today in a limited part of Austin, Texas. What's wrong with the media that doesn't give Elon Musk any room to make mistakes? They were, I mean, every report about this was negative, even though it presents, as I mentioned, a car without a steering wheel, without pedals, and without mirrors, isn't that right ? A car that will drive you autonomously, and they will do so at a much lower cost than Waymo, because they rely on cameras, not radar or LiDAR. It's revolutionizing the way we get around, and everyone's saying, "Oh, you know, the event wasn't broadcast live." So, they were angry. I cannot understand why this man's image is being distorted in this way in everything he does. So, yes, you know, you read the Wall Street Journal story, it sounds like it was a mistake and a bad night, when in fact it was quite the opposite . But they want the pace to be faster and they are unhappy with how quickly things are happening. He promised to deliver it by 2025 and fully launch it in 2026 , and they are holding him to those dates while he changes the world. It's astonishing to me, Diane, how bizarre the media coverage of Elon Musk is. Therefore, I disagree with the general trend here. I think he's changing the world. It's truly amazing. I truly believe he is a visionary.

但当我上车时,我的脚感觉想踩,你知道,什么能阻止你的脚踩踏板?当你在车内时,会出现某些反应。是的。是的。你对机器的信任远超过我对人类的信任。我更信任机器,黛安。这是我的简要观点。

But when I get in the car, my foot feels like pressing, you know, what would stop your foot from pressing the pedal? You have certain reactions that appear when you are inside a vehicle . Yes. Yes. You trust machines far more than I trust humans. I trust machines much more, Diane. This is my quick opinion.

是的,我认为我们应该开始采用这个,因为我觉得它很棒。我看到人们发布的一些照片,尽管他们没有直播活动。但它真的很棒。只是中间的大屏幕和向上打开的车门。你知道,他们明天下午 5 点开始向公众提供航班。那将是一个优势。

Yes, I thought we should start adopting this because I found it amazing. I saw some pictures posted by people even though they did not broadcast the event live . But it's really great. Just the large screen in the middle with doors that open upwards. You know, they will start providing flights to the public tomorrow at 5 pm. That would be an advantage.

我认为真正的问题,除了缺乏许多人想要的直播清晰度之外,是他们将如何实际扩大规模?他们将如何获得批准?国家公路交通安全委员会开始对 CyberCab 进行调查,因为他们没有可依赖的控制或标准;他们习惯于看有方向盘和踏板的汽车。

因此,他们没有依据来提出论点。因此,将对此事进行调查。那可能是焦虑的一部分。

I think the real concern, aside from the lack of, you know, perhaps the clarity of the live stream that many wanted, is the reality of how they are going to scale this up? How will they obtain approvals? The National Highway Traffic Safety Board started an investigation into CyberCab because they have no controls or standards to rely on; they are used to looking at cars with a steering wheel and pedals. Therefore, they have nothing to base their arguments on . Therefore, there will be an investigation into this matter. That might be part of the anxiety.

股价因这一消息而上涨。这就是为什么你今天可能会看到下跌,只是缺乏清晰度。但这都是关于未来的扩张。他们将如何提高产量?他们将如何将这些汽车部署到不同的城市?

The stock rose based on this news. That's why you might see the decline today, just a lack of clarity. But it's all about future expansion. How will they be able to increase production? How will they be able to place these cars in different cities?

因为,正如凯文提到的,我不怕机器。我的意思是,我在芝加哥开过车,这里有很多鲁莽的司机。我信任这些电动“网络出租车”远超过我邻居的司机。

Because, as Kevin mentioned, I'm not afraid of machines. I mean, I drove in Chicago, there are a lot of reckless drivers around here. I trust these electric "cybercabs" much more than the drivers in my neighborhood.

所以,是的,我认为这将是真正的指标:他们将如何实施所有这些雄心勃勃的项目,无论是 CyberCab 还是 Optimus 人形机器人,提高产量、使用量和销量?

So, yes, I think this will be the real indicator: how will they be able to implement all these ambitious projects, whether it's CyberCab or Optimus humanoid robots, increase their production, use and sales?

如你所知,自由现金流正在减少,而他们电动汽车业务的毛利率在这一阶段已经下降。

As you know, free cash flow is decreasing, and the gross profit margin has declined for their electric vehicle business at this stage.

所以,是的,这里有一些担忧,但是,嘿,我觉得它真的很酷,如果他们把它带到芝加哥,我会第一个排队尝试,尽管没有方向盘。因此,我支持完全自动驾驶(FSD)。但我不确定刹车。

So yes, there are some concerns here, but hey, I thought it was really cool, and if they ever bring it to Chicago, I'll be the first in line to try it out despite the lack of a steering wheel. Therefore, I am in favor of Full Self-Driving (FSD). But I'm not sure about the brakes.

我们还没有解决一个问题:如果你在约会,谁会坐在车的哪一侧。我们不会深入探讨这个问题。我想给自己一些时间。所以我选择了一个三周的时期。我研究了不平衡看涨价差策略。我以大约 355 的市场价格买入了一个看涨期权。

事实上,现在的价格略低。我买入了一个 355 的看涨期权,到 9 月 25 日的变动价值约为 30 美元。所以,我以 355 买入一个期权,以 385 卖出两个期权,然后以 395 买入一个期权。

我花了大约 7.70 美元。现在的价格更低。现在大约 7.10 或 7.15 美元。它略有下降,但你有足够的时间。你有时间让事情对你有利,黛安,你正在买入这个回调,并预期一个符合回归 385 预期的变动,该股昨天几乎达到了这个水平。

它达到了 375。所以,这是一笔给你时间、给你 21 天的交易,你预期上涨 30 美元,黛安。

We haven't yet addressed the question of, if you were on a date, who would sit on which side of the vehicle. We will not delve into this matter. I wanted to give myself some time here. So I chose a three-week period. I looked at the unbalanced call butterfly strategy . I bought a call option at approximately the market price of 355. In fact, the price is slightly lower now. I bought a call option of 355, and the move through September 25th is worth about $30. So, I bought an option at 355, sold two options at 385, and then bought one option at 395. I spent about $7.70. The price is lower now. Around $7.10 or $7.15 now. It has dropped a little, but you have enough time . You have time to make things work in your favor, and you're buying this dip, Diane, and expecting a move that aligns with expectations of a return to 385, a level the stock almost reached yesterday. It's reached 375. So, this is a deal that gives you time, gives you 21 days, and you're expecting a $30 rise, Diane.

是的,让我们看看凯文这里的看涨交易,它通过使用不平衡看涨价差策略而不是垂直期权来降低成本。看看 9 月 25 日每周的期权。所以,我们距离到期日还有 3 周。我们有那么多时间用于可能的复苏。

以 355 的执行价格买入一个看涨期权,并以 385 的执行价格卖出两个期权。这是你希望股票达到的水平。然后以 395 的执行价格买入一个看涨期权。简单来说,你买入一个范围为 30 美元的垂直向上看涨期权,并卖出一个范围为 10 美元的垂直看涨期权。

你支付大约 7.70 美元的成本。这是之前交易的价格。股价略有下跌。现在可能交易在接近 7.20 美元的价格。所以,你可以获得略便宜的价格,但你需要更大的百分比变动才能超过这笔交易的盈亏平衡点,大约在 362.70 美元以上。

那个点,仅比当前股价高出约 3.5%,给你 3 周的时间在那个位置。

Yes, let's take a look at Kevin's bullish trade here, which reduces the cost by using an unbalanced call butterfly strategy instead of a vertical option. Looking at the options for September 25th weekly. So, we have 3 weeks until the expiry date. We have that amount of time available for a possible recovery. Buy a call option at an execution price of 355, and sell two options at an execution price of 385. This is the level you want the stock to reach. Then buy a call option with an execution price of 395. Simply put, you buy a vertical upward call option with a range of $30, and you sell a vertical call option with a range of $10. You are paying approximately the cost of a city of $7.70. This is the price at which it was traded previously. The stock price dropped slightly. It is probably trading now at a price closer to $7.20. So , you can get a slightly cheaper price, but you'll need a larger percentage move to get past the breakeven point on this deal, which is around $362.70 up. That point, which is only about 3.5% above the current share price , gives you 3 weeks in that position.

你可以从风险概况中看到,最大盈利点在你卖出两个期权的地方,即接近 385 的执行价格。但是,即使股票继续上涨并超过 395,这笔交易的利润仍将超过一倍。因此,采用不平衡或破损的“期权蝶式”策略,而不是仅仅买入 355-385 的垂直看涨期权,降低了入场成本,这就是你的风险,不是吗?

这笔交易中每份价差 770 美元。你支付的折扣将是你的风险,但你确实需要大约 3.5% 的上涨才能超过 362.70 的盈亏平衡点。

You can see here from the risk profile that the maximum profitability is at or near where you sold two options, at or near the strike price of 385. But, even if the stock continues to move upwards and surpasses 395, the profit will still be more than double on this trade. Therefore, doing an unbalanced or broken "option butterfly" strategy instead of just buying a 355-385 vertical call option reduces the cost of the entry point and that's your risk, isn't it? $770 per spread in this deal. The discount you pay will be your risk in this, but you really need an upward move of approximately 3.5% to get past the breakeven point at 362.70 upwards.

凯文,我选择了一个稍微便宜一点的期权,只是为了给自己一些下行风险敞口,但这并不是一个看跌的交易。它更接近中性,略有下跌倾向。我看了这里的看跌期权日历。我选择了9月25日的周度期权,还有3周到期,买入执行价为340的看跌期权。

它现在大约亏损11美元。然后我卖出了同样的执行价为340的看跌期权,但那是9月11日的周度期权,还有7天到期。所以,这是一个为期两周的看跌或中性偏空的看跌期权日历。你为此支付大约4.50美元的折扣。

它现在可能交易在接近480的位置,因为股价已经接近那个执行价,导致其价格上涨。但是,当你看到这样的交易时,你支付大约450美元。那是你的风险,150美元,但你的目标执行价是340。

然而,同时,你可能有一个大约在327到355之间的区间,在这个区间内你仍然可以从这笔交易中获利。

Kevin, I chose a slightly less expensive option just to give myself some downside exposure , but it's really not a bearish deal, you know. It is closer to neutral with a slight tendency to fall. I looked at the put options calendar here. I went to the September 25 weekly options that expire in 3 weeks, and bought a put option with an execution price of 340. It's out of profit about $11 down. Then I sold the same put option 340 in the September 11 weekly options that expire in 7 days. So, this is a two-week bearish or neutral to bearish put options calendar here. You pay a discount of approximately $4.50 for that. It is probably currently trading closer to 480 because the stock has moved closer to that execution price, which has led to an increase in its price. But how, when you look at a deal like this , you're paying around 450 for it. That's your risk, $150, but you're targeting an execution price of 340. However, at the same time, you probably have a range between about 327 and 355 where you can still make a profit from this trade.

是的,你有一个两周的日历,如果价格没有立即达到那个移动,它可以让你延长时间,但你说得对,汤姆。这笔交易不仅是看跌的,它也是中性的,因为它正在积累“theta”,做多“vega”,并且正在积累“theta”,如果我们现在停留在当前这个区域附近,这笔交易很可能会表现良好。

所以,是的,这是一个例子,说明了“日历价差”策略非常灵活的一面。你并不真的需要价格下跌到340水平才能获利。你今天经历的波动可能正在为你做很多工作。所以,正如我所说,这笔交易让你有能力在未来延长其持续时间,但这是一个略微看跌的交易,汤姆。

Yes, and you have a two-week calendar here that will allow you to extend the time if you don't get that move right away, but you're right, Tom. This deal is not only bearish, but it is also neutral in that it is accumulating "theta", is long in "vega" and is accumulating "theta", and this deal is likely to be good if we stay anywhere in this area right now. So, yes, this is one example that illustrates the very flexible aspect of the "Calendar Spread" strategy. You don't really need the price to move down to the 340 level to make a profit. The movement you are experiencing today is probably doing a lot of the work for you . So, as I said, this deal gives you the ability to extend its duration in the future, but it's a slightly bearish deal, Tom.

是的,我提到的那个事实,即在未来七天内随着到期日临近,你可以回购你的空头期权,并将其展期到另一个周度期权。那些转移,特别是如果它们处于执行价,可以扩大到超过5.5美元或6美元。

因此,即使是一次调整也可能消除你所有的风险并开始产生盈利,这取决于股票的位置。在接下来的七天里,你在那个空头期权上也有一些分配风险,所以请记住这一点。

Yes, and that fact I mentioned about the possibility of repurchasing your short option as the expiry date approaches within the next seven days, and rolling it over to another weekly option. Those transfers, especially if they are at the execution price, can expand to more than $5.5 or $6. Therefore , even a single adjustment could eliminate all your risks and start generating profitability, depending on the stock's position. You also have some allocation risks on that short option over the next seven days, so keep that in mind.

所以,我们这里有一个看跌的日历价差,黛安,以及凯文在特斯拉股票上的不平衡看涨看涨价差交易。

So, we have a bearish Calendar Spread here, Diane, and Kevin's unbalanced bullish Call Butterfly trade on Tesla stock.

这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-04看涨本条
特斯拉股价今日放缓,此前备受期待的 CyberCube 活动推出了一款没有刹车和方向盘的汽车。
2026-09-04看跌
好的,现在我们来谈谈特斯拉和“Cyber Cup”活动。围绕这个活动有很多炒作。从你的角度来看,我们的观众需要知道什么?
原话 06:49 ›
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