TSLA acts as a SpaceX proxy with merger upside; seasonal patterns suggest a 30% rise by year-end.

I'm 44. basically starting from scratch with only around 15 to 20 Tesla shares worth of total starting capital. I put 75% into Tesla SpaceX and want to build the remaining 25% around the I13 with only small amounts to add each week.

I DCA into Tesla around 380 to 400. Would you sell those shares at a loss and move the money into SpaceX for a tax loss harvest? I already have more than enough Tesla shares in another account to cover the recommended retirement number.

it sounds like you have the retirement bag already for Tesla. with Tesla around 365 and if you bought at 380, you're not make getting much of a tax harvest.

we every Wednesday we look at the Tesla SpaceX pair chart and it's getting tighter. is kind of moving more in lock step but watch that chart because that can be a great way to build a bag also pair trade them especially if you can do it taxree

let's get into some Tesla stuff you know if you do want to do the tax less harvesting identify how many you want of that 380 call spaces.

One, the merger. Okay, this is going to happen. The merger premium math is going to be somewhere between 40% premium and 60% premium. And if that lands, the price of Tesla today would go to 512 bucks.

Market cap of Tesla would go to 2.02 trillion. And the premium in dollars per share is at an extra $146, which is substantial.

Think of your Tesla shares today as a proxy for SpaceX with a kicker. That's a call option on the future. The combined Tesla SpaceX model today would be a combined market cap of $4.03 trillion.

Still a good bit less than Nvidia, but the second most powerful company on the planet. Soon to be the biggest company on the planet is my forecast. and then the biggest company ever on the planet because of all of the TAMs they're going after which I've spoken about a million times.

Also, timing is very important. We're going to talk about seasonality. All right, they're on fire right now. There's a truckload of stuff happening real loud. We've got the Cyber Cab.

We've got Roadster announced yesterday, October 1st. Model Y is completely sold out in China and the US. You can't get your hands on it till next year. Optimus V3 is in production.

Semilaunch is coming. The big truck, by the way, they're also going to be selling them in Europe. That thing will sell like hotcakes. You will not be able to get your hands on one.

From what I've heard, there's 1,800 have already been pre-ordered in California. California. And also, we have all-time high diesel prices, which are absolutely making the case for Tesla semi-truck.

It's as if the timing is everything in the markets, but it's somehow Elon's timing and planning are uncanny. Very uncanny. We have FSD version 15 coming. Terrafab construction has begun.

We had record Q2 deliveries and revenue. And Q3 is looking like it's going to be completely gang busters as well. I mean, everybody's now buying a Tesla. I think half of all cars in the half of all EVs in the US are now Tesla.

So, everybody wants FSD. Nobody's buying a dumb car anymore. They all want a car that drives themselves. And there's a million Tik Tok videos every single day happening.

This is the seasonality of the run from here. If the average seasonality return repeats, Tesla should go up 30% between now and year end. You can add the price. Say 460 multiply by 1.3.

Sorry, 360 * 1.3 will get you to Nirvana, Valhalla, whatever. All good.

identify. Do you want to go from something that's about to pop potentially, not guaranteed that it will with all the the crazy catalysts that are hitting right now at once and move to kind of SpaceX that's in unlock hell or wait, that's up to you, too.

Just like Tesla stock we showed earlier, real estate very important to understand where you are in the season.

if Brian Gwal is correct from Raymond James and Tesla SpaceX goes to 800 bucks in a year, you could make that [snorts] you can turn that $300,000 into $5.04 million, 17 extra money.

What happens to the synthetic longs on Tesla and SpaceX when they merge? So the what happens is after a merger the actual options price gets indexed and I've covered this on Twitter and Patreon a bunch of times.

So imagine there is a ratio of shares before and after that is applied to your LE contract. So instead of getting 100 say shares per contract you get a certain other ratio of those shares per contract uh whatever that may be.

So for example 100 share Tesla call becomes a contract delivering consideration. It could be 1.7 3.7 whatever it is and that is the modifier there as well. So don't worry you a lot of f out there people saying oh your leaps disappear after measures.

No no and I've been through this so many times. I've had leaps on companies that were acquired and you just you get even more. It's like a stock split. It's it's a great windfall uh when it does happen as well.