TSLA 可作为 SpaceX 的替代标的，并具备合并带来的上行空间；季节性规律显示其到年底有望上涨 30%。
逐段跳播
我44岁，基本上是从零开始，全部起始资金大约只相当于15到20股Tesla。我把75%投进了Tesla SpaceX，剩下25%想围绕I13来构建，每周只小额加仓。
I'm 44. basically starting from scratch with only around 15 to 20 Tesla shares worth of total starting capital. I put 75% into Tesla SpaceX and want to build the remaining 25% around the I13 with only small amounts to add each week.
我在380到400附近定投Tesla。你会亏本卖出那些股票，把钱转进SpaceX来做税损收割吗？我在另一个账户里已经有足够多的Tesla股票，足以覆盖建议的退休金额。
I DCA into Tesla around 380 to 400. Would you sell those shares at a loss and move the money into SpaceX for a tax loss harvest? I already have more than enough Tesla shares in another account to cover the recommended retirement number.
听起来你在Tesla上已经攒够了退休的那一袋。Tesla现在大约365，如果你是在380买入的，那你做不了多少税损收割。
it sounds like you have the retirement bag already for Tesla. with Tesla around 365 and if you bought at 380, you're not make getting much of a tax harvest.
我们每周三都会看Tesla SpaceX的配对图，它正变得越来越紧，走势更趋于同步，但要盯住那张图，因为那也可能是攒够一袋的好办法，也可以对它们做配对交易，尤其是在你能免税操作的情况下。
we every Wednesday we look at the Tesla SpaceX pair chart and it's getting tighter. is kind of moving more in lock step but watch that chart because that can be a great way to build a bag also pair trade them especially if you can do it taxree
我们来看看一些Tesla相关的东西。如果你确实想做税损收割，先确定你想从那个380看涨期权里要多少。
let's get into some Tesla stuff you know if you do want to do the tax less harvesting identify how many you want of that 380 call spaces.
第一，合并。这会发生的。合并溢价的计算大概会在40%溢价到60%溢价之间。如果这成真，Tesla今天的股价会涨到512美元。Tesla的市值会达到2.02万亿美元。每股溢价是额外的146美元，这相当可观。
One, the merger. Okay, this is going to happen. The merger premium math is going to be somewhere between 40% premium and 60% premium. And if that lands, the price of Tesla today would go to 512 bucks.
Market cap of Tesla would go to 2.02 trillion. And the premium in dollars per share is at an extra $146, which is substantial.
把你今天的Tesla股票看作SpaceX的代理，还附带一个额外彩头。那是一个押注未来的看涨期权。今天Tesla SpaceX合并后的模型市值会是4.03万亿美元。仍然比Nvidia少不少，但会是地球上第二强大的公司。
我的预测是它很快就会成为地球上最大的公司，然后成为地球上有史以来最大的公司，因为他们正在追逐的所有TAM，我已经讲过一百万次了。
Think of your Tesla shares today as a proxy for SpaceX with a kicker. That's a call option on the future. The combined Tesla SpaceX model today would be a combined market cap of $4.03 trillion.
Still a good bit less than Nvidia, but the second most powerful company on the planet. Soon to be the biggest company on the planet is my forecast. and then the biggest company ever on the planet because of all of the TAMs they're going after which I've spoken about a million times.
另外，时机非常重要。我们要谈谈季节性。他们现在火得不行。一大堆事情正在轰轰烈烈地发生。我们有Cyber Cab。我们有昨天10月1日发布的Roadster。Model Y在中国和美国完全售罄，你到明年才能拿到。
Optimus V3正在生产。Semi发布即将到来。顺便说一句，那辆大卡车他们也会在欧洲销售。那东西会卖得像热蛋糕一样。你根本抢不到一辆。据我所知，加州已经有1800辆被预订了。
加州。而且，我们还有历史新高的柴油价格，这绝对在为Tesla半挂卡车造势。就好像时机在市场中就是一切，但不知怎的，Elon的时机把握和规划简直神了。非常神。我们有FSD第15版即将推出。
Terrafab已经开工建设。我们第二季度交付量和营收都创了纪录。第三季度看起来也会完全火爆。我是说，现在人人都在买Tesla。我觉得美国一半的汽车、一半的电动车现在都是Tesla。
Also, timing is very important. We're going to talk about seasonality. All right, they're on fire right now. There's a truckload of stuff happening real loud. We've got the Cyber Cab.
We've got Roadster announced yesterday, October 1st. Model Y is completely sold out in China and the US. You can't get your hands on it till next year. Optimus V3 is in production.
Semilaunch is coming. The big truck, by the way, they're also going to be selling them in Europe. That thing will sell like hotcakes. You will not be able to get your hands on one.
From what I've heard, there's 1,800 have already been pre-ordered in California. California. And also, we have all-time high diesel prices, which are absolutely making the case for Tesla semi-truck.
It's as if the timing is everything in the markets, but it's somehow Elon's timing and planning are uncanny. Very uncanny. We have FSD version 15 coming. Terrafab construction has begun.
We had record Q2 deliveries and revenue. And Q3 is looking like it's going to be completely gang busters as well. I mean, everybody's now buying a Tesla. I think half of all cars in the half of all EVs in the US are now Tesla.
所以，人人都想要FSD。没人再买笨车了。他们都想要能自动驾驶的车。而且每天都有上百万条Tik Tok视频在发生。
So, everybody wants FSD. Nobody's buying a dumb car anymore. They all want a car that drives themselves. And there's a million Tik Tok videos every single day happening.
这就是从这里开始上涨的季节性。如果平均季节性回报重演，Tesla从现在到年底应该上涨30%。你可以把价格加上去。比如说460乘以1.3。抱歉，360乘以1.3会带你到涅槃、瓦尔哈拉，随便什么。都挺好。
This is the seasonality of the run from here. If the average seasonality return repeats, Tesla should go up 30% between now and year end. You can add the price. Say 460 multiply by 1.3.
Sorry, 360 * 1.3 will get you to Nirvana, Valhalla, whatever. All good.
先想清楚。你是想从一个可能即将爆发的东西——不保证会爆发，尽管现在所有疯狂的催化剂同时袭来——转向那种正处于解锁地狱的SpaceX，还是等待，这也取决于你。
identify. Do you want to go from something that's about to pop potentially, not guaranteed that it will with all the the crazy catalysts that are hitting right now at once and move to kind of SpaceX that's in unlock hell or wait, that's up to you, too.
就像我们之前展示的Tesla股票一样，房地产也非常重要的是要明白你处在季节的哪个位置。
Just like Tesla stock we showed earlier, real estate very important to understand where you are in the season.
如果Raymond James的Brian Gwal说得对，Tesla SpaceX一年内涨到800美元，你就能赚到——你可以把那30万美元变成504万美元，多出17倍的钱。
if Brian Gwal is correct from Raymond James and Tesla SpaceX goes to 800 bucks in a year, you could make that [snorts] you can turn that $300,000 into $5.04 million, 17 extra money.
当Tesla和SpaceX合并时，Tesla和SpaceX的合成多头会怎样？情况是，合并后实际期权价格会被指数化，我在Twitter和Patreon上已经讲过很多次了。想象一下，合并前后有一个股票比例会应用到你的LEAP合约上。
所以每份合约你拿到的不是100股，而是按某个其他比例拿到那些股票，不管那个比例是多少。举个例子，一份100股的Tesla看涨期权变成一份交付对价的合约。可能是1.7、3.7，不管是什么，那也是那里的调整系数。
所以别担心，外面有很多人胡说，说你的LEAP在合并后就消失了。不，不，这事我经历过太多次了。我持有过被收购公司的LEAP，你只会拿到更多。就像股票拆分一样。这就像一笔意外之财，发生的时候确实如此。
What happens to the synthetic longs on Tesla and SpaceX when they merge? So the what happens is after a merger the actual options price gets indexed and I've covered this on Twitter and Patreon a bunch of times.
So imagine there is a ratio of shares before and after that is applied to your LE contract. So instead of getting 100 say shares per contract you get a certain other ratio of those shares per contract uh whatever that may be.
So for example 100 share Tesla call becomes a contract delivering consideration. It could be 1.7 3.7 whatever it is and that is the modifier there as well. So don't worry you a lot of f out there people saying oh your leaps disappear after measures.
No no and I've been through this so many times. I've had leaps on companies that were acquired and you just you get even more. It's like a stock split. It's it's a great windfall uh when it does happen as well.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
InvestAnswers 在这只股票上共 10 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。