Tesla's valuation reflects a 'massive startup' model; current price allocates ~$131/share to legacy business and ~$250/share to future projects (Optimus, CyberCab, Semi), which are now ramping production.

Well, information is flowing in abundance about Tesla's "Optimus" robot , and I am personally very excited. I am very excited about what is happening at Tesla regarding the Optimus robot , which is somewhat strange as our excitement is increasingly building up.

This is already reflected in Tesla's valuation, which we will discuss shortly, Now the Optimus robot has begun to ramp up production in a way we previously thought would take years.

You have the semi-truck in the Nevada facility increasing its production rate. We also have a "Cyber Truck" that is increasing its production.

It's really strange, because all these things have been in development for years, and people have been waiting patiently for them. But at the same time, they are all now moving into larger production modes , which is really exciting for Tesla.

Firstly, we already know that the biggest factor right now for the Cybertruck is determining when we will get rid of the one-year period required to train the vehicle. CyberTrack operates in Austin, Texas.

It took one year to map its edges. I call it edge mapping. How long will it take to map the edges of Dallas, Houston, parts of Florida, Seattle, and anywhere else Cybertrucks are located?

Perhaps they can all be mapped at once. Good. But we still have work to do. I'm eager to see how quickly they can achieve it. If you can start mapping the edges of cities in 3 months , and cover 100 cities at a time, Cybertrucks can move very quickly .

So things are moving very quickly for CyberTrack. We know that.

We talked about "Cyber Truck" and "Semi" ( half-ton pickup) the other day, and I hope I didn't say "Cyber Truck" instead of " truck". We talked about the pickup truck the other day, and it's really exciting, especially with the tax breaks available in California, which I think will become even more beneficial.

These "Cyber Trucks" will be sold exclusively in left-leaning states. California is a huge shipping state. Therefore, these trucks will quickly run out in California. I expect this state to be where Tesla's fast charging networks will first see widespread adoption.

As you know, you won't see it in central Ohio. not yet.

And now we have this news about Tesla's "Optimus" robot. There is something that makes me very excited about Optimus that I hadn't previously considered.

Tesla manufactures its own chips. Therefore, they are competitors to Nvidia in this sense. I've been using autopilot since 2017. That's why I started buying Tesla stock. I was saying, this is amazing.

That was back in the days of autopilot on highways, you know, you couldn't use it inside cities. And when you could start using it inside cities, it would run red lights, wouldn't it?

He didn't stop at red lights. But , as early users , we knew what its limitations were. So, she wasn't going to do stupid things with it . Well, most people wouldn't do stupid things using it.

Anyway, in 2017, for this system to be really good , I think I would choose version 14. Do you know when version 14 was released? Perhaps that was in 2025? Somewhere in 2025? Anyway, what are you looking at ? 3 + 5, this is an 8- year timetable.

They say Tesla has increased production of the humanoid robot " Optimus" tenfold. This appears to mean going from around 200 robots to a few dozen or several hundred per week. So, they went from, let's say, 20 to 200 for example.

They may have gone from 30 to 300. That's actually really unbelievable. Because if you calculate the annual rate, say 200 per week multiplied by 52, that equals 10,400 robots per year.

Elon will suddenly have an army of 10,000 robots if they continue at this rate, and that is truly unbelievable. Especially since they appear to be manually manufacturing some of the components of this robot, which they plan to rent out, "Optimus V3".

So, they initially planned to sell or rent these robots to commercial clients, but here they say one of the problems they face is adjusting the robot's hands and joints. The parts are much smaller and contain 100 screws and small components that currently require manual assembly by humans.

The Information complains that Tesla has struggled to maintain quality and consistency. It is clear that Chinese robots will be a competitor to something that might resemble a premium Tesla robot .

But I believe that Tesla's robot could actually be built with Chinese components through Tesla's supply chains in China . Therefore, I am less concerned about competition from Chinese robots because I believe Tesla will achieve really good profit margins , especially since they also have manufacturing in China for these robots.

Of course, The Information goes on to say that artificial intelligence is not yet capable of doing some things reliably. It doesn't matter. Personally, I don't find this as negative as "The Information" portrays it.

In fact, I think this expansion in Optimus production is happening much earlier than expected.

What is impressive about this strategy is that they say here that Tesla has over 500,000 hours of training data. But they say that by using a strategy of having humans wear glasses, they collect that much Tesla data every two and a half hours.

This is very remarkable, because it not only means that Figure collects a lot of data, but it also means that Tesla can collect it very quickly, by providing a group of people with glasses or helmets, or whatever, and paying them to wear them.

People want to make money, so they end up wearing them. So, I think this is a very positive sign .

I don't even feel the need to talk about a "roadster" car. If we actually get a roadster for sale, that would be great, but I feel like it's more like fulfilling a promise and getting a job done .

But if we look at Tesla's balance sheet , we find they have about $15 billion in free cash. Looking at the profit margins of the automotive sector, they amount to approximately 17% as gross margins including tax exemptions, and 21% for the energy sector.

These margins have decreased. So, these margins have decreased. These margins have shrunk. The older part of Tesla has shrunk considerably. The financial situation is not very good .

There is a 47% increase in operating expenses against these margins. This means, in a way, that the company operates like a very large startup.

I think that when looking at the valuation of this company, if we take Wall Street’s forecast of 47% earnings per share growth over the next four years on average, which is good, the stock is still trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about five times.

And you know, Tesla is here at 4.89. Tesla, as you know, trades like cybersecurity companies at around 5. Cybersecurity stocks trade at very high prices. But it also boasts extremely high profit margins with a business model based on recurring annual revenues.

Thus, in light of the artificial intelligence boom, cybersecurity is becoming more important day by day, even minute by minute. Another $350 million cryptocurrency hack has just occurred.

In any case, this means in my opinion that you are paying around $131 per share for the automotive and energy business here. This represents approximately $500 of the company's value.

That's all. $131 per share, that's a fairly generous offer for the automotive and energy businesses. What you're really paying for is about $250 per share for the Semi truck, CyberCab, and Optimus Project.

If Tesla's stock drops to $131, you will get the Semi truck, CyberCab, and Optimus for free. At the moment, the market seems to be saying: Hmm, no. We will not give those things away for free.

We will sell them at a price of $250 per share. The current value of these futures options is equivalent to $250 according to today's market. So, you are actually paying upfront for some of this excitement.

But I would say that we have seen a state of euphoria, or the market in general has been historically more optimistic about Tesla . Not all of these productions had started to increase as they have now.

This is very exciting, because if you go back to 2024 when the stock reached high levels in the $400 range . Or I went back to the $400 range here, i.e. $414, was that in 2021?

Or about $500 at the end of last year during the Trump election, Elon's entry, and all that kind of nonsense. You were not at the production level for any of these things; "Cyber Cab," or "Optimus," or the "Simi" truck.

While you are now at that level, you are trading at much lower levels than those high levels. Therefore, it makes the stock interesting to follow based on those available options.

I view it almost as a startup company. This is the right way to think about it. It's like a big startup company . Essentially, a massive startup worth $1.5 trillion.

We can even draw some technical breakthrough points here. This is on the weekly chart here. You can see that we are somewhat stuck below this trend line. We will just place it as a small gray line here.

But I believe , and I wouldn't be surprised if we reach an agreement with Iran, that Tesla's stock will likely revalue to above $414. We should probably trade above previous highs based on how much manufacturing expands at this stage.

I know this still sounds crazy based on the price- to-earnings growth ratio, but it's possible that Wall Street doesn't fully appreciate the potential of these three innovations together.

This may be what makes Tesla seem expensive today.

For this reason, if we look at Tesla from a different perspective and review the 2030 figures and start working backwards. So, instead of looking to the future, we look back . So, if you look at what I call Project 2030 , you know, it's kind of like Project 2025.

Haha. I'm just trying to borrow something that represents a hot political issue for people. Anything to be annoying, I think. Well, if you look at Tesla's paper and work on it in reverse. 4 million vehicles were listed .

That's " CyberCap". Or, um, regular vehicle sales. As you know, sell them to fleet operators or whatever . Look for higher profit margins. Hmm, margins of 30% for those vehicles due to the "Cyber Cab" margin.

So, I am already very generous in that regard. Operating income for semi-trucks. I've raised that to 4.2 billion by 2030. Especially if the Democrats win. 200,000 robot sales transactions.

Frankly, at the moment that might be realistic. This will bring us to about one and a half billion dollars. You will still be in a very early stage of the lease period. Ah, this is the potential for Tesla's fees.

We added $1 billion as a potential fee if they also operate their own fleets . This is in addition to the compounds mentioned here. Therefore, there is some risk of duplication in the accounting if we assume that 90% of these vehicles are mass-produced and sold to fleets, but they keep some of the operations themselves.

So , you know, we've put a bit of "Uber" in here. Honestly, I'm going to delete this part. I'll just say, um, removing revenue in the "Uber" style and assuming only fleet sales, okay?

And then of course we get an increase in Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions from $775 million to about $2.5 billion. So, I think we are already relatively generous with some of these figures.

If you put all that together and assume that their future growth can continue to maintain a 30% growth rate thereafter, you can justify a valuation of $824 per share, which means that trading at the current price of $380 gives you an internal rate of return (IRR) of 20%, which is very good. It's a very good internal rate of return.

So, this indicates that Wall Street's expectations today are very low, and that they are not taking into account some of these hopes, because this already includes the mass sale of fleets, the " cybercab", the sale of pickup trucks, and achieving 200,000 robot sales annually by the end of 2030.

This gives us the years 2027, 28, 29, 30. This gives us 4 years. This gives us a full presidential term. Therefore, I find that very useful and interesting. And frankly, this excites me about Tesla, because for me it means that today’s valuation, if I wanted to reduce it by a discount rate of, say, 8%, then today’s valuation would probably have to be around $500.

No, 575. Yes, 575. Let's go with 575, which will be consistent with my technical analysis. Therefore, at 575, for the price to be considered fair, there would be a 30% growth and a price-to- earnings-to-growth (PEG ) ratio of 2.25.

How will I get there? For the year 2030? Well, it depends on... I mean, I think we can use today's earnings per share to justify it. Okay, let's start from here. Today's earnings per share are 1.65.

So, what is the PEG ratio today if we assume this level of growth? Let's see. Let's see. Because that will show us the difference from what the market is not currently pricing Tesla at, essentially.

If we want to reach 575, then 575 should represent 2. A PEG ratio of 2.3, I think that's what I said. So, in order to achieve that, the growth we need to show at $1.65 will be... let's see here.

2.3 at 1.65, we should be at around 125? close. A little more. 125 , 1.2, we should be at a growth rate of 150%. 2.3 at 1.65, yes, that gets me to 270 . This is very close. So, to achieve a fair value here , where was it?

The future value was $824. To achieve $824 per share, we need growth over the next four years averaging 120, yes, about 100. Is that what we had? Yes, about that . whatever. Approximately 120 to 140% annually for the next four years.

This will justify these figures. So, obviously this sounds crazy. This seems ridiculous. But, with three entirely new profitable sectors, it is possible. This shows you the difference in how this is not priced by the market. I think this is very interesting.

Overall, the human training data on " Optimus," this pessimistic report from " The Information" which I think is nonsense, their critical position is good. You know, there will be a slight downward adjustment to their investment in SpaceX.

But they will get a slight adjustment with the rise in " Bitcoin". Therefore, it will not matter for other income. But, you are introducing three new areas here that I think will be very valuable.

We've also just started up our Tesla Powerwall units, which is really cool. So now I have it in the app, and it provides backup power during expensive peak times , right ?