TSMC is a long-term hold due to its dominant position in advanced chip manufacturing and excess demand for nodes below 3nm, despite risks from high capex and AI cycle dependence.

Every leading chipmaker, and we're talking about TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix and Intel, relies on ASML machines with no alternative suppliers to switch to.

So, I'm going to talk about TSMC. TSMC, for those who are not familiar with it, is a manufacturing company and the largest manufacturer of semiconductor products. Nvidia, for example, only designs chips.

They do not manufacture them. They create a design or plan and send it to TSMC, and TSMC implements and builds it. The best thing about this is that TSMC is the undisputed leader, holding the largest market share in AI accelerators.

This is mainly because TSMC does not design its own chips. It is not a competitor. The only other manufacturing companies capable of producing these types of products are actually competing in one way or another with some other industry, aren't they?

TSMC is the only specialist option in this field. They are clearly the pioneers and the most advanced in the field of chip manufacturing. They also have the largest manufacturing infrastructure footprint at the moment.

TSMC’s current market capitalization is just under $1 trillion (as recorded), and in the last quarter revenue was around $23.5 billion, up 36 % year-over-year and 12% compared to the previous quarter, driven by demand for advanced artificial intelligence and strong growth in high-performance computing.

That's the story of artificial intelligence, isn't it? We are seeing net income rise and we continue to see demand for accelerating artificial intelligence. The growth story here, outside of the numbers, is that management pointed to artificial intelligence agents and central processing units (CPUs).

But right now, this is a major incentive that goes beyond just artificial intelligence accelerators. They stated that the demand for nodes 3 nanometers and below, which are the advanced chips being manufactured so far, far exceeds the supply.

Therefore, this ends up being very closely related to Rachel's favorite stock, ASML; Because if there is a shortage of supplies with very high demand, TSMC will purchase more products from ASML and see how much ASML can produce.

For the whole of 2026, they expect revenues to increase by slightly more than 40% year-on-year. At the beginning of this year, specifically at the very beginning, they were expecting a percentage closer to 30%.

Therefore, as demand for artificial intelligence continues to grow, they continue to raise their annual growth forecasts to higher and higher levels.

Now, one of the risks here is certainly the amount of money they spend on capital expenditures. TSMC notes that it expects to invest approximately $100 billion more in Arizona, bringing total capital expenditures and chip manufacturing in Arizona alone to nearly $265 billion over the next five years.

They are also building many factories around the world, from Taiwan to Japan and Germany, and the list goes on and on. Therefore, this is definitely dangerous.

Another risk is that this is very much linked to the artificial intelligence cycle. Therefore, if there is even a slight slowdown in the artificial intelligence industry, TSMC will be among the companies affected.

But for me, the real story is that technology and innovation are driven by semiconductor products. So, whatever comes next, whatever comes after artificial intelligence or whether it is a subset of it, and whatever drives new technology, TSMC will be a major player in that as well.

So, even if this cycle eventually abates, there will likely be a new cycle in which TSMC will continue to leverage its strength in chip manufacturing.