Sold TTD position due to severe revenue decline and negative outlook; inclined to exit remainder as fundamentals deteriorate faster than expected.

Last week, or a little over a week ago, I sold a third of my stake in Tradedesk shares, as I mentioned previously. I mentioned that I bought that stake in Tradedesk shares for about $44 per share , and sold it for about $13 per share at a huge loss .

I said I would sell for the purpose of recovering tax losses, and I would retain two-thirds of my remaining stake in Tradedesk for now , as this has been one of my most disappointing investments in a long time.

So, I wanted to discuss and explain what went wrong here, why I am selling Tradedesk shares now , and what my plans are regarding my remaining stake.

As a result, Tradedesk's stock is now down more than 66% since the beginning of 2026. It's a massive sell-off, and the situation is even worse if you look at a slightly longer time period .

Over the course of one year, the stock fell by 73%, and if we look a little further back , we find that it has fallen by 83% over the past five years . This stock was once trading at over $141 per share .

It has lost nearly 90% of its value since then, and is now trading at less than $13.

Of course, much of this dramatic sell-off is a result of competition from Amazon and the way Amazon entered the market by offering lower prices, which damaged the lucrative industry in which Tradedesk operated by calling into question the 15-20% fees that Tradedesk charged purchasing managers.

Tradedesk attempted to claim that Amazon was in a conflict of interest because it was selling its own inventory, and the quality of that inventory was not as good as the advertising inventory that Tradedesk was buying .

And so the TradeDesk management team continued to raise these arguments again and again, but to no avail. Investors are unconvinced, and the business is beginning to show signs that Amazon is winning and Tradedesk is falling behind.

So, here's the main reason that prompted me to sell "TradeDisc" recently. It is a dramatic decline in revenue and projected revenue in future quarters. In the latest update, the revenue figures and forecasts were so disastrous that they changed the game for TradeDesk investors.

So, up to that point, the company, despite facing competition from Amazon, was still achieving relatively strong revenue growth rates. 19% in the quarter ending June 2025, 17.7% in the quarter ending September 2025, 14.4% in the quarter ending December 2025, and 11.8% in the quarter ending March 2026.

So, there is a slowdown, is n't there? As expected, and as I anticipated when I got involved, I bought a stock that was already low . The stock was down more than 70% when I allocated the first part of my investment.

Therefore, I expect business activity to slow down rather than accelerate, given the risks and so on, because the valuation was relatively cheap when buying at those levels. So, we are getting a business at a discounted price, and we can expect to see some flaws in its features and fundamentals.

But the last quarter ended represented a massive drop from revenue growth of 11.8% in the March quarter to just 3% in the quarter ending June 2026. So, a significant double-digit decline to a level that doesn't even keep pace with inflation, right ?

Inflation was above 3% on an annual basis. Then the forecasts were even worse . Now, estimates point to significant declines, not even growth, here for Tradedesk. For the quarter ending in September, Wall Street analysts expect a 12% year-over-year decline in revenue .

Management's outlook was similarly pessimistic for the next quarter. Things are then expected to get worse in the December quarter with revenues down 18% year-on-year. Then there are two more quarters of declines here.

The company does not expect to achieve revenue growth again until September 2027, and at a rate of only 2.1%. So, the outlook does not look good for Tradedesk in the near term.

This is the main reason that prompted me to choose to sell a third of my central bank, while the other two-thirds that I hold in my portfolio are unstable. I am more inclined to sell those two-thirds of my position as well, rather than keeping them or adding more.

Those two-thirds of my positions that I hold in my portfolio have a cost basis of about $20 or $19 per share. They are generating significant losses even with the share price dropping to around $12.

Therefore, in order to reap the tax losses, I am more interested in selling those shares than holding them.

However, the valuation is still ridiculously cheap . It is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5. Therefore, the assessment reflects the weak prospects. The assessment takes into account the headwinds of the foreseeable future.

This is the type of valuation at which a stock is traded when there is no real long-term growth expected.

But for The Trade Desk, I believe that after short-term difficulties, the company can regain its growth momentum. She works in a growing sector. She works in the field of digital advertising, which is growing at a faster pace than the advertising sector as a whole.

Therefore, the sector is expected to grow at an average rate of nearly double digits over the next five years. All Trade Desk has to do is maintain its market share and keep up with the sector's growth rates , and it will achieve a 10% increase in revenue.

However, in the short term , it is likely to lose a significant market share. These are Wall Street's estimates . Therefore, the stock price already reflects the fact that it will lose a significant market share over the next three to six quarters .

For this reason, I continue to lower my estimates for Trade Desk, which is another worrying sign for me. I am sharing with you the company's prospects at the moment as I see them, aren't I?

Based on the data received. But it seems like every 3 months or a few months, I get new data, and the data comes in worse than expected for Trade Desk. Therefore, I continue to be surprised by the negative results where the numbers are worse than the estimates indicated , even worse than my own estimates suggested.

So, things are getting worse for Trade Desk, not better or more stable. This is worrying for me as well.

In its current state , I estimate the fair value of this company to be approximately $22. But again , I warn you that I continue to reduce this number repeatedly and on an almost monthly basis.

New figures are showing up that are worse than I expected, and I am revising my estimates downwards.

Whereas with Trade Desk it is quite the opposite. I continue to lower my numbers because the data continues to come in worse than expected. Therefore, at the moment, it appears to be undervalued .

But the trend path is very bad. I'm not very confident that it will maintain these levels. In fact, I am concerned that in a month or two from now, new data will emerge that will force me to reduce these numbers even further.

Therefore , I have rated this stock as a year-round buying opportunity . It was almost the worst performance of all the estimates I made in 2026. The last time I told investors I had a moderate level of conviction, and I had already downgraded TradeDesk several times.

I have lowered its rating; At the beginning of 2026, I had ranked it as one of the best stocks to buy. Then I removed it from that list, but I remained very convinced that it was a good buying opportunity.

After that, I lowered my rating to moderate conviction, and today I lower it further to a low conviction level .

I sold a third of my stake in the stock. I wouldn't be surprised if worse-than-expected data came in again, which might prompt me to sell the remaining two-thirds of my stake. It seems that the situation did not go as expected, and I will use it to save on tax losses and transfer my capital to a better investment.