因营收严重下滑且前景负面，已卖出TTD持仓；由于基本面恶化速度快于预期，倾向于清出剩余仓位。
逐段跳播
上周，或者一周多一点之前，我卖出了我在 Tradedesk 持股的三分之一，正如我之前提到的。我提到过，我买入这部分 Tradedesk 股票的成本约为每股 44 美元，并以每股约 13 美元卖出，亏损巨大。
我说过，我卖出是为了回收税务亏损，并且暂时保留我剩余 Tradedesk 持股的三分之二，因为这长期以来是我最令人失望的投资之一。
Last week, or a little over a week ago, I sold a third of my stake in Tradedesk shares, as I mentioned previously. I mentioned that I bought that stake in Tradedesk shares for about $44 per share , and sold it for about $13 per share at a huge loss .
I said I would sell for the purpose of recovering tax losses, and I would retain two-thirds of my remaining stake in Tradedesk for now , as this has been one of my most disappointing investments in a long time.
所以，我想讨论并解释一下这里出了什么问题，为什么我现在卖出 Tradedesk 股票，以及我对我剩余持股的计划。
So, I wanted to discuss and explain what went wrong here, why I am selling Tradedesk shares now , and what my plans are regarding my remaining stake.
因此，Tradedesk 的股价自 2026 年初以来已下跌超过 66%。这是一次大规模抛售，如果看稍长一点的时间段，情况甚至更糟。在一年时间里，该股下跌了 73%，如果再往前看一点，我们会发现它在过去五年里下跌了 83%。
这只股票曾经交易在每股 141 美元以上。自那以来它已损失了近 90% 的价值，现在交易在不到 13 美元。
As a result, Tradedesk's stock is now down more than 66% since the beginning of 2026. It's a massive sell-off, and the situation is even worse if you look at a slightly longer time period .
Over the course of one year, the stock fell by 73%, and if we look a little further back , we find that it has fallen by 83% over the past five years . This stock was once trading at over $141 per share .
It has lost nearly 90% of its value since then, and is now trading at less than $13.
当然，这次剧烈抛售很大程度上是来自 Amazon 的竞争，以及 Amazon 通过提供更低价格进入市场的方式所致，这动摇了 Tradedesk 所经营的利润丰厚行业，使人们对 Tradedesk 向采购经理收取的 15-20% 费用产生了质疑。
Of course, much of this dramatic sell-off is a result of competition from Amazon and the way Amazon entered the market by offering lower prices, which damaged the lucrative industry in which Tradedesk operated by calling into question the 15-20% fees that Tradedesk charged purchasing managers.
Tradedesk 试图声称 Amazon 存在利益冲突，因为它在出售自己的库存，而该库存的质量不如 Tradedesk 所购买的广告库存。于是 TradeDesk 管理团队一次又一次地提出这些论点，但都无济于事。
投资者并不信服，而业务正开始显示出 Amazon 正在取胜、Tradedesk 正在落后的迹象。
Tradedesk attempted to claim that Amazon was in a conflict of interest because it was selling its own inventory, and the quality of that inventory was not as good as the advertising inventory that Tradedesk was buying .
And so the TradeDesk management team continued to raise these arguments again and again, but to no avail. Investors are unconvinced, and the business is beginning to show signs that Amazon is winning and Tradedesk is falling behind.
那么，这是我最近卖出“TradeDisc”的主要原因。那就是营收以及未来几个季度预期营收的急剧下滑。在最新更新中，营收数据和预测如此糟糕，以至于它们改变了 TradeDesk 投资者的局面。
So, here's the main reason that prompted me to sell "TradeDisc" recently. It is a dramatic decline in revenue and projected revenue in future quarters. In the latest update, the revenue figures and forecasts were so disastrous that they changed the game for TradeDesk investors.
所以，到那时为止，尽管面临来自 Amazon 的竞争，该公司仍然实现了相对强劲的营收增长率。截至 2025 年 6 月的季度为 19%，截至 2025 年 9 月的季度为 17.7%，截至 2025 年 12 月的季度为 14.4%，截至 2026 年 3 月的季度为 11.8%。
所以，确实存在放缓，不是吗？正如预期的那样，也正如我参与时所预料的，我买的是一只已经处于低位的股票。当我配置第一部分投资时，该股已下跌超过 70%。因此，考虑到风险等等，我预期业务活动会放缓而不是加速，因为在那些价位买入时估值相对便宜。
所以，我们是以折价获得一项业务，并且可以预期在其特性和基本面上会看到一些缺陷。
So, up to that point, the company, despite facing competition from Amazon, was still achieving relatively strong revenue growth rates. 19% in the quarter ending June 2025, 17.7% in the quarter ending September 2025, 14.4% in the quarter ending December 2025, and 11.8% in the quarter ending March 2026.
So, there is a slowdown, is n't there? As expected, and as I anticipated when I got involved, I bought a stock that was already low . The stock was down more than 70% when I allocated the first part of my investment.
Therefore, I expect business activity to slow down rather than accelerate, given the risks and so on, because the valuation was relatively cheap when buying at those levels. So, we are getting a business at a discounted price, and we can expect to see some flaws in its features and fundamentals.
但刚刚结束的最后一个季度，营收增长从 3 月季度的 11.8% 大幅下降到截至 2026 年 6 月季度的仅 3%。所以，是从两位数大幅下降到甚至跟不上通胀的水平，对吧？按年计算，通胀高于 3%。
然后预测甚至更糟。现在，预期显示 Tradedesk 将出现大幅下滑，甚至不是增长。对于截至 9 月的季度，华尔街分析师预计营收同比下降 12%。管理层对下一季度的展望同样悲观。
随后预计 12 月季度情况会变得更糟，营收同比下降 18%。接着还有两个季度的下滑。公司预计直到 2027 年 9 月才会再次实现营收增长，而且增速仅为 2.1%。所以，Tradedesk 的近期前景看起来并不好。
But the last quarter ended represented a massive drop from revenue growth of 11.8% in the March quarter to just 3% in the quarter ending June 2026. So, a significant double-digit decline to a level that doesn't even keep pace with inflation, right ?
Inflation was above 3% on an annual basis. Then the forecasts were even worse . Now, estimates point to significant declines, not even growth, here for Tradedesk. For the quarter ending in September, Wall Street analysts expect a 12% year-over-year decline in revenue .
Management's outlook was similarly pessimistic for the next quarter. Things are then expected to get worse in the December quarter with revenues down 18% year-on-year. Then there are two more quarters of declines here.
The company does not expect to achieve revenue growth again until September 2027, and at a rate of only 2.1%. So, the outlook does not look good for Tradedesk in the near term.
这就是促使我选择卖出我持仓三分之一的主要原因，而我投资组合中持有的另外三分之二并不稳定。我更倾向于也卖出这三分之二的持仓，而不是继续持有或加仓。我投资组合中持有的这三分之二持仓，成本基础约为每股 20 美元或 19 美元。
即便股价跌到约 12 美元，它们也在产生重大亏损。因此，为了获得税务亏损，我更想卖出这些股票，而不是持有它们。
This is the main reason that prompted me to choose to sell a third of my central bank, while the other two-thirds that I hold in my portfolio are unstable. I am more inclined to sell those two-thirds of my position as well, rather than keeping them or adding more.
Those two-thirds of my positions that I hold in my portfolio have a cost basis of about $20 or $19 per share. They are generating significant losses even with the share price dropping to around $12.
Therefore, in order to reap the tax losses, I am more interested in selling those shares than holding them.
然而，估值仍然便宜得离谱。它的远期市盈率为 12.5。因此，这一估值反映了疲弱的前景。该估值考虑到了可预见未来的不利因素。当预计没有真正的长期增长时，股票就会以这种估值交易。
However, the valuation is still ridiculously cheap . It is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5. Therefore, the assessment reflects the weak prospects. The assessment takes into account the headwinds of the foreseeable future.
This is the type of valuation at which a stock is traded when there is no real long-term growth expected.
但对于 The Trade Desk，我相信在经历短期困难之后，公司能够重拾增长势头。它身处一个增长中的行业。它身处数字广告领域，该领域的增长速度比整个广告行业更快。因此，预计该行业在未来五年将以接近两位数的平均速度增长。
Trade Desk 所要做的就是保持其市场份额并跟上行业的增长速度，它就能实现 10% 的营收增长。
But for The Trade Desk, I believe that after short-term difficulties, the company can regain its growth momentum. She works in a growing sector. She works in the field of digital advertising, which is growing at a faster pace than the advertising sector as a whole.
Therefore, the sector is expected to grow at an average rate of nearly double digits over the next five years. All Trade Desk has to do is maintain its market share and keep up with the sector's growth rates , and it will achieve a 10% increase in revenue.
然而，短期内它很可能会失去相当一部分市场份额。这些是华尔街的预期。因此，股价已经反映了它将在未来三到六个季度失去相当一部分市场份额这一事实。
However, in the short term , it is likely to lose a significant market share. These are Wall Street's estimates . Therefore, the stock price already reflects the fact that it will lose a significant market share over the next three to six quarters .
出于这个原因，我继续下调对 Trade Desk 的预期，这对我来说是另一个令人担忧的迹象。我是在与你们分享我目前所看到的公司前景，不是吗？基于所收到的数据。但似乎每隔 3 个月或几个月，我就会得到新数据，而 Trade Desk 的数据都比预期更糟。
因此，我不断对负面结果感到意外，数字比预期所显示的更糟，甚至比我自己的预期所显示的还要糟。所以，对 Trade Desk 来说，情况正在变糟，而不是变好或更稳定。这对我来说也令人担忧。
For this reason, I continue to lower my estimates for Trade Desk, which is another worrying sign for me. I am sharing with you the company's prospects at the moment as I see them, aren't I?
Based on the data received. But it seems like every 3 months or a few months, I get new data, and the data comes in worse than expected for Trade Desk. Therefore, I continue to be surprised by the negative results where the numbers are worse than the estimates indicated , even worse than my own estimates suggested.
So, things are getting worse for Trade Desk, not better or more stable. This is worrying for me as well.
在当前状态下，我估计这家公司的公允价值约为 22 美元。但再次提醒你们，我几乎每个月都在不断下调这个数字。新数据不断出现，比我预期的更糟，而我也在下调我的预期。
In its current state , I estimate the fair value of this company to be approximately $22. But again , I warn you that I continue to reduce this number repeatedly and on an almost monthly basis.
New figures are showing up that are worse than I expected, and I am revising my estimates downwards.
而 Trade Desk 则恰恰相反。我不断下调我的数字，因为数据持续比预期更糟。因此，目前它看起来被低估了。但趋势路径非常糟糕。我不太有信心它能维持这些水平。事实上，我担心从现在起一两个月后，会出现新数据迫使我进一步下调这些数字。
Whereas with Trade Desk it is quite the opposite. I continue to lower my numbers because the data continues to come in worse than expected. Therefore, at the moment, it appears to be undervalued .
But the trend path is very bad. I'm not very confident that it will maintain these levels. In fact, I am concerned that in a month or two from now, new data will emerge that will force me to reduce these numbers even further.
因此，我将这只股票评为全年买入机会。这几乎是我在 2026 年所做的所有预期中表现最差的。上次我告诉投资者我持有中等程度的信心，而我已经多次下调 TradeDesk。我下调了它的评级；在 2026 年初，我曾将它列为最值得买入的股票之一。
后来我把它从该名单中移除，但我仍然非常确信它是一个很好的买入机会。在那之后，我将评级下调至中等信心，而今天我进一步下调至低信心水平。
Therefore , I have rated this stock as a year-round buying opportunity . It was almost the worst performance of all the estimates I made in 2026. The last time I told investors I had a moderate level of conviction, and I had already downgraded TradeDesk several times.
I have lowered its rating; At the beginning of 2026, I had ranked it as one of the best stocks to buy. Then I removed it from that list, but I remained very convinced that it was a good buying opportunity.
After that, I lowered my rating to moderate conviction, and today I lower it further to a low conviction level .
我卖出了该股三分之一持仓。如果再次出现比预期更糟的数据，我也不会感到意外，这可能会促使我卖出剩余三分之二的持仓。看来情况并未如预期发展，而我将利用它来节省税务亏损，并把我的资金转移到更好的投资上。
I sold a third of my stake in the stock. I wouldn't be surprised if worse-than-expected data came in again, which might prompt me to sell the remaining two-thirds of my stake. It seems that the situation did not go as expected, and I will use it to save on tax losses and transfer my capital to a better investment.
这个频道对 $TTD 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。