Uber's reliance on human drivers creates a structural disadvantage against low-cost autonomous vehicles, posing an existential threat to its business model.

everyone's favorite early-stage Uber investor is currently going through a wave of enthusiasm, sharing his opinions, ideas, perceptions, and even conspiracy theories about what might happen in the future.

Don't be surprised if Tesla, Amazon, or Google buy Uber for $300 billion to win the race to deploy self-driving vehicles.

Now, putting aside Amazon and Google for a moment, if Tesla were to buy Uber, I would retire from content creation. This is my level of confidence that this will not happen. There is a 0.0% chance that Tesla will buy Uber for $300 billion , or even for a pack of gum and some candy .

He then tells us not to be surprised if Tesla, Amazon, or Google buy Uber for around $300 billion, which, to remind you, is double its current market value , in order to win the rollout of self-driving vehicles.

Finally, don't be surprised if Dor Dash, Uber, and/or Lyft merge and then buy a car company.

In its current state, Uber is an excellent company , in terms of both product and service; it's not just about how easy it is to order a ride. I mean, if you're in the middle of a major city , you can actually open the Uber app, and within a minute or four minutes at most, someone will arrive to pick you up. It's amazing .

Then there's Uber Eats, which is the equivalent of Dash in food delivery, and it's also an excellent service. I mean, you pay a fair amount, but Uber has been very successful in expanding its services to become available in all major markets, at least in the West.

But their entire business model is based on vehicles driven by humans. With the emergence of cheap and universally available self-driving technologies, they will have no hope of competing, because they cannot compete with anyone at the cost of the human element, which is no longer required in self- driving vehicles.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Dash and Uber will actually merge.

The only thing that has actually been achieved with DoorDash and Uber is the existing network and infrastructure, application, and dynamic pricing. Returning to Sawyer's post about the 0% chance of Tesla buying Uber, Jason responded by saying: "Major mergers and acquisitions are coming to this industry."

If you don't believe me, the best thing you can do is short sell shares of Uber, DoorDash, Lyft, Rivian, and Lucid." I do not advise you to do that because within 18 months, the value of these four companies will increase by 50 to 100% and/or they will have entered into some form of merger and acquisition deal.

Why don't they do that? Amazon plus Uber plus Waymo equals player number one .

Tesla plus Uber equals player number one. He adds: "Uber plus Dordash plus Nuru plus Lucid equals the number one player by a wide margin." "Waymo plus DorDash plus Uber equals player number one."

any company, whether in food delivery, passenger transport (like Uber, Lyft, and others), or the automotive industry, if it has any sense, recognizes the existential threat posed by a safe, widespread, and low-cost public autonomous driving system.

My best guess is that Jason believes that the Uber network, the DoorDash network, and everything that entails—their existing apps, their customer base, the software, and the algorithms capable of efficiently connecting riders to rides— represent a tremendous advantage in addition to the existing brand, so that they won't disappear even if they are hampered by a huge cost deficit, because people are used to using Uber and DoorDash.

They will somehow be able to overcome the insurmountable cost disadvantages by having an existing brand and platform that people know and use. I think that even if some kind of mega-merger were to take place between a group of different companies— Uber, DoorDash, Rivian, Lucid, Volkswagen , and some emerging self-driving car companies— they would not be able, without access to several “ magic buttons,” to match Tesla’s cost, size, and overall autonomous driving capabilities.

But even if this scenario comes to pass and the company remains able to meet its financial obligations a decade later, Uber already has a platform , and it is collaborating with more than a dozen other companies, all of which provide self-driving vehicles and are trying to compete with Tesla on cost.