UBER's passenger transport business is vulnerable to self-driving taxis, causing a likely sharp decline in its stock price.

Uber's performance seems a bit weak today, Landon. Uber is one of the companies that has recently come under scrutiny with the rise of self-driving taxis, Waymo, and others.

I mean, demand has risen by about 11 percentage points year-on-year, which is certainly strong. We know that their bookings increased by 22% in the last quarter. They have 208 million monthly active users . Therefore, they perform their job excellently.

I think Uber's biggest achievement is in its delivery service, which has grown by 26% year-on-year. This includes Uber Eats, grocery stores, and retail stores.

Uber recently expanded its partnership with Costco, covering 47 states instead of 17, or 600 locations. So, they are on the right track.

But overall, Uber is performing excellently as a company. I believe its position is strong in terms of purchase intention and customer satisfaction. Well, as you know, Uber portrays it as a helpful factor.

I think there are those who see it as a counterproductive factor, and I will adopt this view because I strongly believe in it.

So, if we look at Uber, it focuses mainly on passenger transport, while delivery is different, and I will talk about that later . But when it comes to passenger transport, it's an application that collects requests and manages the fleet.

They hope this will give their business a real competitive advantage.

Uber does not have this social aspect. It has this large number of users because it is the most suitable for its work. If you want to take a car, you use the Uber app. But there is no real fortress around demand aggregation and fleet management.

These systems are not easy to build , but large companies are certainly capable of doing so .

Now, if you're a user, and your friends start talking about the possibility of reaching your destination for half the cost, you'll download the other app. There is nothing preventing Uber from competing.

This is a major concern. Everyone should pay attention to this .

Clearly, this is a frightening number when it comes to Uber. This applies to passenger transport services . The delivery service is different. They have a greater competitive advantage in this aspect because the last 15 meters are crucial.

For example, if you order food from a restaurant via Uber Eats, yes, you can ask the restaurant worker to put the order in a CyberCub, but what happens when the CyberCub arrives at the home or apartment complex ?

Does the homeowner have to go out to receive the order, or will there be a knock at the door? This difference is what people will pay for . They will pay for a door-to-door service instead of going out to pick up the order.

But as far as people's movement is concerned, I think the situation is critical for Uber. I think self-driving poses a major obstacle for them, especially when considering the cost of the trip.

Even when looking at the number of trips per hour in cities across the country, if we look at the number of trips per hour on Uber and Lyft, if we compare between cities where self-driving vehicles have been deployed and those where they have not, we find that they are declining more rapidly in the cities where they have been deployed.

So, people actually started moving around. It's clear they'll switch to this service if the price is halved. All you have to do is get over the strange feeling of riding in a car without a driver.

I haven't tried it personally yet, but it will be an interesting experience. But, you know, how big a leap forward is compared to the strange feeling that prevailed 10 or 15 years ago when getting into a stranger's car?

This is what Uber started with. I think people will get used to it and will be willing to try it given the big price difference .

Overall, the company is performing well in its field, but this field will face fierce competition, especially from Tesla, and possibly from Waymo as well. They have a partnership with Waymo, but they are also working on developing their own app.

Therefore, they can simply activate this feature and compete strongly.

Well, I think they will have to focus more on delivery services rather than passenger transport services, because the latter still have a competitive advantage, while passenger transport services have lost this advantage.

Elon Musk is about to introduce the cheapest fares, and this will not only affect Uber and taxis, but will also affect car purchases. This will affect how older people get around.

It will affect everything when we talk about prices this low.

I mean, Uber's stock hasn't crashed yet, but there's a sharp drop coming when all these cars hit the road. Who's going to pay $17 when they can pay $7?

This has always been the rivalry between Uber and Lyft. When we talk about numbers like these, my friend, there is no real decision to be made. Yes, of course. I agree. This is something I think investors need to understand well: I fully agree that there is a sharp decline coming, but the stock price will not necessarily wait for the revenue collapse before appreciating what is coming.

Therefore, stock prices are looking towards the future. If smart investors and hedge funds realize that this sharp drop in revenue is inevitable, it will be followed by a sharp drop in the share price because they will want to get out before it happens.

So, I think there will be some kind of fear-driven selling in Uber shares once this starts to come out, like, why pay $17 when you can only pay $7?

And you are right to talk about a radical change that will go beyond Uber, even beyond just owning a car. When you start doing the calculations, you'll wonder: How many trips do I need per month?

What is the monthly installment? Do I need to own this car, have insurance, and all that? It will be amazing.

The really interesting thing is, and I don't want to criticize Uber too much here because you have to do what's right for your business. But, you know, if we go back to the period from 2009 to 2015, they were the ones who brought about a radical change, weren't they ?

They broke the rules and then asked for forgiveness later, which I fully support. I am not a fan of all the rules and regulations related to innovation. My position is simply to let people innovate.

But, as you know, taxi companies filed lawsuits and lobbied, in a serious attempt to defend their businesses, and lost in most of them. Uber won because people were already using it.

Now, Uber, which brought about a radical change, is the one that has been affected by it . Now, Uber is very keen to push for ensuring that self-driving vehicles have operating licenses, that it is done safely, and that there is insurance and legal liability.

I mean, you know, you have to do what 's appropriate for your job, but they were on one side and now they're playing on the other.

I think they should do that. But this is a massive upheaval coming. In my opinion, it is definitely a headwind. They need to focus on delivery service because I think they will lose customers who move on.

They need to find a way to solidify their presence and increase retail sales, and increase grocery sales, because the last 50 feet is all they can own right now.

Ten years from now, you might find an electric taxi stopping in front of you and a regular taxi driver getting out to deliver your food or your order from the store. But this won't happen anytime soon.

It's in the future, but in the next year or two, I think you're going to see a massive upheaval like what happened in Austin across the country, where everyone starts thinking, 'Well , why am I paying $17 when I can just pay $7?'

This is simply something Uber cannot answer . You have to pay the person, not the person in the self-driving car. Therefore, this is an advantage that Tesla and Waymo have that Uber cannot compete with.

Therefore, they need to focus on delivery services.