XLE is consolidating after breaking below its trend line and 20-day MA; success of the next bounce determines if it resumes the uptrend or corrects further.

Exxon Mobil continues to make headlines because of crude oil and the war. So, looking at this in the short term first, it's very similar, isn't it? As you know, we have seen the beginning of the rise recently. In fact, the index crossed the 20-day moving average and remained relatively above it until Monday when it fell below it. This coincided with a similar decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to what happened here. Clearly, the upward trend since the beginning of 2026 has been more pronounced, but when the XL index fell below the upward trend line in the 20-day moving average, it led to some consolidation and then to lower lows, but it remained relatively close to the normal correction level. So, we will now see, firstly, how successful the next bounce attempt is in bringing the XL index back above this line, and perhaps even breaking above the 20-day moving average again, and, most importantly, how much correction is needed this time before demand returns. Because it's easy to see this decline further, especially if demand for large-cap growth stocks continues. We rarely see large-cap growth and technology stocks rise alongside energy. It will be important to monitor this situation as we begin the fourth quarter. Therefore, from a monthly perspective, all this activity over the past few months is just a wide potential trading range. Again, this is a back-and-forth movement that has continued for several months, as we moved from a much longer trading range that extended from 2022 to the beginning of 2026. Along this path, we are still in an uptrend, aren't we? Since the lowest levels of the COVID-19 pandemic. So, this may ultimately just be a large continuation pattern on our way to further gains. We will be watching this closely, because a return to the low fifties could turn this into a reversal pattern.