XLE在跌破趋势线和20日均线后进入盘整，下一次反弹能否成功将决定其是重启升势还是进一步回调。
逐段跳播
埃克森美孚继续因原油和战争而成为头条新闻。所以，先从短期来看，情况非常相似，不是吗？如你所知，我们最近看到了上涨的开始。事实上，该指数上穿了20日移动均线，并相对维持在其上方，直到周一跌破该线。
这与相对强弱指数（RSI）出现与此处类似的下降同时发生。显然，自2026年初以来的上升趋势更为明显，但当XL指数在20日移动均线处跌破上升趋势线时，它导致了一些盘整，随后创出更低的低点，但仍相对接近正常回调水平。
所以，我们现在将首先观察下一次反弹尝试能否成功将XL指数带回该线上方，甚至可能再次突破20日移动均线，而最重要的是，这次在需求回归之前需要多大的回调。因为很容易看到这轮下跌进一步延续，尤其是如果对大盘成长股的需求持续的话。
我们很少看到大盘成长股和科技股与能源股一同上涨。随着我们进入第四季度，密切监测这一情况将很重要。因此，从月度角度来看，过去几个月的所有这些活动只是一个宽幅的潜在交易区间。再次强调，这是已经持续数月的来回波动，因为我们从一个从2022年延续到2026年初的更长交易区间中走出来。
沿着这条路径，我们仍处于上升趋势中，不是吗？自新冠疫情的最低水平以来。所以，这最终可能只是我们在通往进一步上涨途中的一个大型持续形态。我们将密切关注这一点，因为回落至五十出头可能将其转变为一个反转形态。
Exxon Mobil continues to make headlines because of crude oil and the war. So, looking at this in the short term first, it's very similar, isn't it? As you know, we have seen the beginning of the rise recently.
In fact, the index crossed the 20-day moving average and remained relatively above it until Monday when it fell below it. This coincided with a similar decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to what happened here.
Clearly, the upward trend since the beginning of 2026 has been more pronounced, but when the XL index fell below the upward trend line in the 20-day moving average, it led to some consolidation and then to lower lows, but it remained relatively close to the normal correction level.
So, we will now see, firstly, how successful the next bounce attempt is in bringing the XL index back above this line, and perhaps even breaking above the 20-day moving average again, and, most importantly, how much correction is needed this time before demand returns.
Because it's easy to see this decline further, especially if demand for large-cap growth stocks continues. We rarely see large-cap growth and technology stocks rise alongside energy.
It will be important to monitor this situation as we begin the fourth quarter. Therefore, from a monthly perspective, all this activity over the past few months is just a wide potential trading range.
Again, this is a back-and-forth movement that has continued for several months, as we moved from a much longer trading range that extended from 2022 to the beginning of 2026. Along this path, we are still in an uptrend, aren't we?
Since the lowest levels of the COVID-19 pandemic. So, this may ultimately just be a large continuation pattern on our way to further gains. We will be watching this closely, because a return to the low fifties could turn this into a reversal pattern.
观察点
这个频道对 $XLE 的历次判断
StockCharts TV 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。