How Brian Feroldi’s view on $AAPL changed

2026-09-05Bearish
“Warren Buffett: How To Calculate Intrinsic Value”
Apple is high quality but low growth; current valuation of 37x earnings is too expensive, requiring a drop to ~$240/share to be a buy.

Here we find "cash cow" companies such as Apple, Nvidia and Costco.

Now that we know the complete five-step process, let's take a company like Apple, which was once one of Buffett's stocks, and apply this list and process to it to see when it would be a good buy.

The first question that should be asked is: Are Apple's revenues predictable? Well, if you look at the graph of Apple's long-term revenue, you will see that its revenue has been steadily increasing for two decades.

This makes the company's revenues highly predictable. Therefore, we put a "check" mark on this point. The next question is: At what stage of the business cycle does Apple fall?

Specifically, is it in the capital recovery phase? Well, if we input Apple's data into the tool I designed, it becomes quite clear that it is already in the capital recovery phase.

Since we know that it is in the capital recovery phase, it is safe to conduct a complications analysis on Apple. Now, when I look at Apple, the price-to-earnings ratio is highlighted because the company is working at full capacity to generate profits, and therefore this metric is appropriate.