ASML

But let's talk about the second stock I'm going to add to my portfolio, which is ASML stock. This stock is already in my portfolio, and it has been the biggest winner in it over the past year.

I made huge investments in it last year, talked about it a lot, and it performed excellently. I profited from it by 164%, which is approximately 165% . Therefore, he is the biggest winner in my personal portfolio.

Some may be tempted to look at a stock that has risen 121% over the past year and automatically assume that we have missed the opportunity. But let's take a closer look at the price- to-earnings ratio.

How does the stock price move in relation to the company's earnings growth and future earnings growth forecasts? If we look at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the past twelve months , we find it is very high, reaching 55.

The stock seems expensive at first glance. But we must take into account future earnings growth . Look at the price-to- earnings ratio over the past three years. This is another example of a stock that is trading at a price higher than its true value, but due to its rapid earnings growth , its price-to-earnings ratio is fairly reasonable, at around 31.18 times earnings.

Now, let's talk a little about the evaluation, because things get more interesting. Moving on to sensitivity analysis and taking a look at ASML, the data will be automatically loaded thanks to Ticker Data, and here's what's interesting.

ASML’s earnings per share growth rate is expected to be slightly lower than that of Broadcom, at least through 2030. However, we noted that ASML stock is trading at a higher price than Broadcom stock based on its expected price-to-earnings ratio.

ASML’s price-to-earnings ratio exceeds 31, while Broadcom’s price-to-earnings ratio slightly exceeds 21. Therefore, ASML stock, at least based on its price-to-earnings ratio, is slightly more expensive than Broadcom stock, even though its earnings growth rate is not as high.

This makes sense, because the price-to-earnings ratio is primarily determined based on the expected rate of future earnings per share growth. However, there is another factor that greatly affects the earnings multiple, which is the predictability of future cash flows.

In other words, how strong is the company's competitive advantage that ensures the sustainability of future cash flow growth? This is where ASML stands out clearly. I recently posted a detailed video about ASML, in which I discussed this topic in detail.

In short, ASML is the only manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology. It is at the top of the semiconductor value chain in the field of artificial intelligence.

All of its capital expenditures ultimately revert to ASML. It has no competitors , and I still see some people saying, "Well, China is getting closer to ASML." This is simply not true.

Whenever such a headline appears, it is quickly refuted. We even read an article from Bloomberg a few days ago in which an ASML supplier stated that China is 15 years behind the best chip-making tools, namely ASML itself.

So, as the big technology companies continue to increase their capital expenditures, that money is coming back to ASML. However, there is another aspect of ASML business that many people completely ignore, and that is customer base management.

This is an important aspect of the work. Why? Because ASML, when its ultraviolet lithography machines are charged, requires maintenance . It needs to be updated over time. So, suddenly, the company developed a proven customer base management division , which means that as it continues to acquire more extreme UV lithography equipment, this part of the business continues to grow.

Why is this so attractive ? Because it is essentially a subscription-based sector . As the core business grows, the proven customer base management segment continues to grow, and this provides accurately predictable cash flows .

That's why I feel very confident about this company's future cash flows. Again, this is an example of how, due to rapid earnings growth, a company can experience a significant decrease in its price-to-earnings ratio while its shares continue to trade at a very fair valuation.

If the company gets even closer to what analysts expect by 2030 in terms of earnings per share, and we see a significant decline in the price-to-earnings ratio, the projected returns for 2030-2031 will still be very attractive.

Yes, this is a dividend-paying growth stock . But honestly, if the price-to-earnings ratio had fallen that much, I would have added more shares. So , these are the two stocks I plan to increase my capital in within my personal portfolio.

In fact, there is no real bubble in either stock , at least in terms of their trading price. However, what many overlook is that the real bubble, at least in the AI race, will not be in the price, but in the decline in potential earnings growth .

I have seen many people refer to this, but it is still misunderstood. However, my wallet is designed for such an event for several reasons. Firstly, the core assets in my portfolio continue to increase dividend payouts regardless of market conditions.

This means that the amount of income I receive from dividends continues to grow monthly . In some cases, this is a good thing, because it allows me to reinvest dividends at lower prices, enabling me to buy more shares and thus increase my dividend income at a faster pace.

But my portfolio is protected not only in this way, but also because it forms its main pillar, SCHD, which represents about 40% of my portfolio. When people hear this, they automatically assume that the reason SCHD is a good foothold , and an excellent diversification tool away from AI-powered, rapidly growing earnings-driven semiconductor stocks, is that SCHD doesn't focus too much on the technology sector.

This is partially true. But there is an aspect of SCHD that 90% of investors overlook, and it is perhaps one of the most important aspects to understand if you are specifically interested in SCHD to diversify your investments away from your high-growth positions.

This explains the annual revaluation of the stock. Now, what does re-evaluation mean ? Okay, let's start by clarifying some facts. We previously mentioned in

ASML has been one of the biggest winners in my personal investment portfolio over the past year. I significantly increased my investment in this stock last year in 2025, and you can now see that I have made a profit of approximately 157% on this position .

It is indeed the primary driver of much of the growth in my personal portfolio recently. But what's really interesting is that despite the stock rising by more than 127% in the past year, take a closer look at this stock's valuation.

It is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.24, which is actually lower than its 5-year average. It is actually still below its 3-year average.

Now it's memory. Now it's the EUV ASML tools to build chips.

remember and the other thing the other big thing that's hard to nail as well as is there a way of them overcoming the ASML lithography tooling with a different approach? Cuz that seems to me like the biggest and hardest thing that like if there's a monopoly on the planet them and Zeiss are it.

Next one, ASML. Much less risk there from a business perspective. However, risk from a price perspective because we discussed ISML a year and something ago. Good risk and reward here.

It was on this part of the quadrant where we'll discuss other buys. But then what happened? The stock price went from 560 to almost 1,500. The business is still the same. The P ratio was in the 30s 20s.

Now it is in the 50s. That changes the risk and reward for a long-term investor.

I know a lot on the industry but not on the specifics for ASML and TSMC. Two vitally important input makers to the semiconductor chain.

And this week's match up winner was ASML versus TSMC. But we're going to take both these companies through the simplifier seven framework and we're going to ask ourselves which of these two stocks is the better buy today.

Next we get to ASML, which is just behind S&P Global. It's holding number six. It's a $124,000 position with $91,000 in gains. ASML is one of my favorite stocks ever. I really love this company.

It's so cool what they're doing. But I have to set a buyin target at $1,200. If we look at how the numbers play out here, we can assume very moderate assumptions for ASML. The earnings per share growth rate of 12.5%.

I'd put a PE multiple of 30 on it. When we look at that, at a $1,200 buyin price, we get a 15.2% return. So, I believe with these assumptions, at $1,200, the stock would essentially double over the next 5 years.