You've presumably made a lot of money on gold and gold investments in the last year and a half given how far gold has run up. Would you take some profits and move it into something else?
All right, let's go into some gold action here. Gold today, early in the day when yields were down and the dollar was at its lows, gold was at its highs, traded as high as 4,400.
By the end of the day, it gave back half of that gain. In fact, more than half, just up about 6%. This is all I care about on gold. This trend line at 4,300, that has to hold next week.
You still have your head and shoulders pattern here, which is a very, very important bearish pattern formation. Only bearish if it triggers with a daily close below the neckline of 4,300. Watch that closely next week.
Uh gold is back up over the 50. It's under the 200. It's got some work to do to get up this 429, but it's gold and we're in an inflationary environment. There's this all this stuff going on with Japan and um I think there's going to be a reset to the to the currency soon.
Don't know when. Uh probably after the midterms and uh and gold I think will catch a bid at that point or we you know, we'll see. Uh but right now the action is a little bit short-term constructive and a and shorter term a little bit weak on gold.
Uh but the the nice thing is there hasn't been a huge amount of selling on high volume.
Gold fits in my stock puppet category. It's highly correlated. The 100 day correlation with the S&P 500 reached almost such a multi-deade high recently.
Its volatility versus the S&P 500 is two times. That's hard the highest in 20 years. Could easily get back down to 3,000 before at some point it stays above 5,000.
Gold Gold I sold all my gold. >> [snorts] >> Um I did not I was almost ready to rebuy it back, to be honest. And I just didn't do it yesterday. I was too caught up in other things, but you know, if you remember we were buying the 385s and then I rolled up options all the way and I got rid of my GLD um 410s, you know, into this strength and I'd like to be able to buy the 430s for maybe September 18th.
I just didn't quite do it yesterday. What's it doing this morning? Gold closed up a little bit. Um Actually, it's not. So, I'm going to probably buy a set of September, you know, 18 calls.
I'd love to see this go into the eight day and then buy the 430s and roll them up one more time. Um hopefully you've already bought the 385s and made money on those, the 400s and 410s.
We did three different sets of gold calls. They were awesome. We even had a power play for GLD. So, gold's been a really nice sequence. You catch a sequence like this, that could make you month, it make you quarter.
As far as gold is concerned, again, gold I I don't think has a strong potential for a lower low. Still within the realm of a reasonable possibility more so than I would prefer.
And I'm leaving that on the chart, but I think it's a bit more likely that gold just gets a retracement rather than a lower low. Now, I'm going to warn you I still have no indication that gold has even topped.
I need to take out the 4600 support for gold to make it more likely that we are in that pullback. And as you can see, I mean it's looking like we are getting a corrective pullback so far.
Could this be a one two to the downside? It could be, but I'm not I'm not I'm not jumping on that. Not just yet. I want to see how we get below support before I make any further determinations of bigger downside. For now, this is what I'm looking for.
gold traded with that not with actual inflation. So it was when investors expected inflation that they bought gold, not so much when inflation actually occurred. As the inflation actually occurred, it reinforced the investor's view that yes, they should be owning gold, but gold tends to uh anticipate inflation, but you don't have to be a genius to have anticipated inflation over the last 18 months.
Next up into gold, guys. Gold has been um uh the inflow of capital has seen a ton of inflow of capital, mainly because of the currency debasement trade with percent, basically um artificially saving the yield curve.
And in doing so, what that is what that what happens with that is that folks fear that they're going to have their fiat currencies, thus the US dollar, devalued with this sort of maneuvering to artificially maintain and and lower that yield curve.
So, that's what's really kick-started some interest in gold last week, pushing gold up through these previous levels of resistance, which are now support isolated on your screen.
And now we're starting to settle out right on top of $4,575.
