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How Joseph Carlson After Hours’s view on $MSFT changed

Channel profile →This channel has 2 credited speakers: Michael Burry, Wall Street Journal article2 entries
2026-08-26Bearish
“Meta Wins A Massive Strategic Victory”Wall Street Journal article
MSFT's opaque reporting on Azure growth and costs is a major flaw; investors are left guessing about the primary growth engine despite detailed disclosures on minor businesses.

This article from the Wall Street Journal details how Microsoft is making it difficult for investors to understand what they're actually doing, what their CapEx costs are, what their financing costs are.

This one is from The Wall Street Journal. They say that Microsoft is leaving investors flying blind on its AI business across three critical drivers of the AI future, cloud computing, capital expenditures, and its relationship with OpenAI.

The company disclosures fall well short of what investors need.

Watch the source00:51
Direction flip
2026-08-24Bullish
“I’m Buying $10,000 Of This Company Next”
Microsoft is a buy at $400 per share, with a 16.8% CAGR over 5 years based on 12.4% EPS growth and a 28x multiple, outperforming the market.

Now, after that, we have Microsoft. Microsoft is number eight. It's a $104,000 position. $50,000 of that being gains, and it's a 7% weighted position. For Microsoft to get that $10,000, I will need it to drop down to $400 per share from the $490 that it currently trades at.

After the last earnings report, Microsoft shot up around 25%. It went up like crazy. And before that, it was at $400 per share. So, if Microsoft simply gives up the gains of its last earnings report bump, then this will be the one that gets that $10,000.

We can assume a modest 12.4% EPS growth rate over the next 5 years. With that, I believe that Microsoft's appropriate EPS multiple quite high given the moat and the structure of the company, I think it should trade at a 28.

And with those assumptions, buying it at $400 per share gives us a compounded annual growth rate of 16.8% over the next 5 years, which I believe would soundly outperform the market.

Watch the source15:44
KolSays