How Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium’s view on $ON changed

2026-09-22Bullish
“Why On Holding Just Surged 10% (And What’s Next)”
ON is a strong long-term buy due to optimistic 2029 guidance (20% CAGR, higher margins) and a significant $1B buyback reducing shares.

Holding shares had a rough start to 2026, down 40% at the close of trading yesterday , but today the share price is up 10% after management gave a very optimistic outlook not only for the rest of this year, but also for the end of the decade.

They have given medium-term guidance, which they give every 3 years, so it will be in effect until the end of 2029. They are expecting a compound annual growth rate of about 20 %.

They have outperformed their guidance over the past 3-year period , so this time it could be a little higher than that and they are expecting the profit margin to continue to increase.

A 60% profit rate is no longer enough. Now they have set a target profit rate of 65%.