Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 对 $ON 的判断变化

2026-09-22看涨
《Why On Holding Just Surged 10% (And What’s Next)》
ON 是强劲的长期买入标的,得益于乐观的 2029 年指引(20% 复合年增长率、更高利润率)以及 10 亿美元的大规模回购减少股份。

持仓股在2026年开局表现不佳,昨日收盘时下跌40%,但今天股价上涨10%,原因是管理层给出了非常乐观的前景展望,不仅针对今年余下的时间,也针对本十年末。

Holding shares had a rough start to 2026, down 40% at the close of trading yesterday , but today the share price is up 10% after management gave a very optimistic outlook not only for the rest of this year, but also for the end of the decade.

他们给出了中期指引,这类指引每3年发布一次,因此将一直有效到2029年底。他们预计复合年增长率约为20%。在过去3年期间,他们的实际表现超过了自身指引,所以这一次可能会略高于那个水平,而且他们预计利润率将继续上升。

60%的利润率已经不够了。现在他们设定的目标利润率为65%。

They have given medium-term guidance, which they give every 3 years, so it will be in effect until the end of 2029. They are expecting a compound annual growth rate of about 20 %.

They have outperformed their guidance over the past 3-year period , so this time it could be a little higher than that and they are expecting the profit margin to continue to increase.

A 60% profit rate is no longer enough. Now they have set a target profit rate of 65%.