当前不建议买入AAPL，因其估值偏高且资本配置缺乏吸引力；iPhone生态系统的长期韧性支持持有，但不支持在当前价格买入。

Yeah, I mean I feel like if you look at pretty much all of these businesses, I mean they're all pumping a lot of money into capex. I mean I think the only one that I guess you could maybe argue isn't is Apple.

it wasn't that long ago that it was a big deal when we had our first trillion dollar company and those were businesses um like Google and Apple that were generating you know tens of billions of dollars uh in revenue and and you look and and in profit too

The last two companies would be Apple and Nvidia. Um I mean for the next two companies one of them is definitely tested by time which is Apple companies one of them is definitely tested by time which is Apple and then

Um I have no problem taking Apple and putting it into A. I think um probably if I would look at it right now and again we're talking about the difference between next year and 30 years time. I think it's too expensive for me right now. Um I wouldn't want to have it in my portfolio compared to some other companies.

Apple, I don't know. Look, I mean, maybe it's my European brain thinking, but for a long time, I had an Android phone. Those are great phones, too. Now, I switched to Apple and basically everything around me right now is Apple. Um, so they are dominant for sure, but I also think it's a consumer company to me at least at their core and 30 years time. Um, that's a long time. So I would probably say A or between A to B. That's why I that's where I see it.

I Yeah, I would probably put it between A and B. I don't think it's as good as as Alphabet. Um, you know, when I look at Apple, I see a company that has a cash cow in iPhones and to a lesser extent, MacBooks.

Um, you know, the market narrative has swung pretty dramatically around um for whether uh AI, Apple's lack of capex uh into AI is the right decision or not.

Um and it is uh I think going to be a defining decision for the company for a long time going forward. Uh we're basically you know they're relying on uh other LLM providers to provide the technology that's going to power Siri and the AI integrations into their phone. Um they're not trying to build out their own their own models.

And so um I think that's not a bad not a bad move. Um, but still when I look at Apple, see a business that's way less diversified than Alphabet.

I see a business with a whole lot of cash on its balance sheet. Um, kind of reminiscent of Birkshshire where it feels like in the past they've made incredible capital allocation decisions, but then you're sitting here and thinking, what are they going to do with all this cash now? And I don't know what Apple is going to do with it.

you know, the Apple Vision Pro headset um was was really the first flop in my adult lifetime for an Apple product. I mean, I know they've had flops in the past, but from, you know, the launch of the iPhone until like 2024, it just felt like everything they did was a hit. you know, every every iPhone, you know, sold more than the last and and you know, MacBooks and iPads, like everything just, you know, kept selling and selling and selling.

Um whereas uh this is the first time with an Apple, it almost felt unfathomable to me like, oh my god, an Apple product is flawed and it's not popular and not everybody is is dropping everything they're doing to go out and buy it.

That was kind of my honest reaction to the Apple Vision uh headset, whatever it's called. Um so, you know, you don't want to make uh you don't want to make too big of a deal out of one out of one product flop. Um but I don't think, you know, I mean, Apple has never been a a culture based on pioneering technology. So, it doesn't surprise me that they're not trying to play the cutting edge of LLMs.

They're all their business has always been about turning you know maybe last year's technology into uh a very simple um you know software for the everyday person to be able to to interact with. Um so they have a huge distribution advantage um and you know because they're not really competing at the cutting edge of tech. they're more of a, you know, of like an appliance company, you almost might say, uh, or like a, you know, a hardware product company.

I I I don't feel like they're at the same risk of, uh, on a long-term horizon of being disrupted. You know, I I maybe I'm just not imaginative enough, but you know, I don't see us all just moving into a world where we don't have iPhones anymore and we're all using like Oculus headsets or like, you know, like I I I think I think the iPhone the smartphone model um I think that's going to be pretty persistent.

I'm not, you know, I'm not super bullish on, you know, Snapchat has these like uh AI, you know, augmented uh reality glasses and like they think that people are going to walk around the world, you know, like I just I'm not the technology is not there. I'm not sure the consumer fit is there.

Um and I think that actually means that, you know, Apple just continues to win because they just continue to have um you know, this incredible ecosystem uh and and these great products. So, I kind of I think it's their game to lose

and like you said, I wouldn't want to buy Apple today because I think the price is rich. Um, I haven't been inspired by their capital allocation decisions. I don't know what they're going to do with the cash on their balance sheet. Um, I want to see more about how they, you know, integrate AI into their products. So, those are some like one to twoyear question marks,

but, you know, are people going to still be buying iPhones in 30 years from now, 20 years from now? I don't know. I I think they will. I think they will. And uh if they are, you know, Apple's still going to be, you know, a tight end of of industry.

Yeah. And I'll just chime in here. I think I I completely agree with you guys. You know, I've always admired Apple, the company, Apple, the company. I have tons and tons of their their products just like you guys, but the the stock price is just it's way too expensive given given the growth of this business.

Um but I will say, you know, over the next say, call it 20 to 30 years, I mean, I I haven't been an Android user. I've used, you know, maybe like a Google box on my TV and things like that. So, I've used a little bit of it, but I honestly can't really see any anything that would replicate my iPhone. So, you know, in that sense, I like where they're probably going to go over the over the future.

I I kind of agree. I like the A between A and B I think makes sense to me because I don't think it's quite the same level as as as Google or Alphabet. But, um yeah, so I I think you know the the the I just looked it up. It was called the Vision Pro, I believe. And they've actually apparently they've discontinued um basically completely discontinued it, which is which is pretty crazy cuz like you said, I I can't remember them really ever having a flop.

So, um yeah, who knows? I mean, the phone just seems like something that's going to be a product that's probably going to be around for a very, very long period of time. Um who knows, though. I mean, maybe Apple will disrupt itself with some sort of revolutionary new thing at some point. I mean, I I don't know when that'll happen or if it'll happen,

but um yeah, I mean, me personally, can't really see myself moving away from from my phone, but um yeah, still a good business. They still make a ton of money. Um they still have pretty uh hardcore fans that are willing to pay up for their products. So, yeah, I think it's a business that's going to be around for for probably a pretty long time and continue making quite a bit of money.

And I I also like the fact that they don't have they're not spending uh you know, hundreds of billions of dollars on the whole AI buildout. Yeah, I mean, it's optionality, you know, if if you just save your money. And I think in part why we think they never do have a flaw, it's also because they usually save up money and then they only get into the business when it works out.

So even if we think now that you know the iPhone will be around for a long time. Even if you know I'm a guy I wear glasses now for 25 years. So if we should have glasses at some point that where actually can have all the you know gimmicks that Google I think just showed in one of their latest um latest glasses. I'm all for it. But I could also see in that world if it happens in 10 20 30 years time maybe Apple will dominate that again.

you know, if if they're good at one thing, it's getting new things into the ecosystem and integrating it in a way that consumers want it. So, I think whatever the base is, whether it be an iPhone, whether it be something else, um I think we shouldn't underestimate the fact that Apple will probably be there.