AAPL 全部观点

Now, let's look at a couple other stocks. We'll look at Apple. It's been trading in a range.

Let's look at some Apple. Why? You know, it's just like random. That's just like what's on my mind. Apple. Uh haven't traded here in a while. We're at 309.

Uh, you know, we're past earnings, which occurred here July 30th. We saw a gap down. We looked at this earlier. It's trading near the middle of its bowlinger bands. We're kind of in a consolidation zone.

middle of its bowlinger bands. We're kind of in a consolidation zone. This is where I might look for uh just a sideways trade. Now, the IV is not going to be super high on on uh Apple. The IV rank right now is 56, which puts it in the 41st percentile of uh of where it typically would be. So, this is what I would consider a low IV. And I'm going to look for low IV trades on Apple. This is where I might look for uh just a sideways trade.

Now, the IV is not going to be super high on on uh Apple. The IV rank right now is 56, which puts it in the 41st percentile of uh of where it typically would be. So, this is what I would consider a low IV.

And I'm going to look for low IV trades on Apple. So, how do we build that? Let's look at at something that I could build that might be like considered an income stream so to speak. So if I looked out 52 days and actually that's too long. Let's do on 30-day cycle here. Let's look at September 25th and just sell an at the money or just slightly below the money put. So I would collect 445 for that order.

Now if I went double the time frame, if I went out to 60 days, so let's go to October 16th about 52 days later. What is the cost of buying that 300 put? Well, this cost me $200.

Now, we know from before this calendar spread, so I'm going to have $200 in total risk to the to either side or whatever it is the debit paid. So, I've got a max loss of 274, but I have a max profit of making up to $461.

Now, I don't have to own the stock to do this. I can just buy this position. It's got a probability profit of 40, and we've got break evens around that 314 2.88 at this first expiration, which is September 5th, 31 days away.

Okay, so we could go to the chart and we could take a look at that and say, you know, where is 314 on this on this uh chart? It's relatively here. And then uh where was the option chain on the side or the the break even on the other side is 288. So we could go down here and we could look at this and say, wow, that's a pretty nice little range.

Basically, as long as the stock stays, let me get my right drawing tool here. Not had this for two weeks. As long as the the stock stays in this range, this this could make up to double my my money.

Uh there's a good good chance that we could see this happen over the next little while. Apple has not had a huge amount of strength coming uh into this year. We saw we saw a large rise up and then earnings pushing that down.

So would be very very easy for me to assume that that's what might happen over the course of the next little while.

These are the type of trades that I love to put on. Now, how do I potentially get some more upside? If I think, oh, Apple's going to have a great year. Um, I want to have uh some long-term um positions in Apple, well, that's where I go to leaps.

I can go out, you know, past the 388 days, this September of next year, and I can just purchase a LEAP, and I can do that above

And I have this nice profit tent. Basically, as long as Apple stays below 29 or above 297, there's potential of this making money. I have this one long call has unlimited upside potential in here. So, the max profit is unlimited. It's got a 70% probability of making money because if the stock drops down a little bit, then I I've got this nice profit tent. I still have a max loss. This is a $3,200 trade. And this is why how people can get in trouble. They can overlever their account. They can say, "Wow, I, you know, I bought this and I bought this and I bought this." And then the whole market goes down and they just lose uh a ton of money on this. But I don't need to buy the shares to get some exposure to the upside. In this case, this can be a very very easy way to do this. We can we can set this up where I have a calendar which is protecting my long uh put and it's creating basically a a zero theta trade. It's giving me that max profit that's unlimited. Probability of profit 70% over the next couple of of weeks. Now the IV, if the IV was to increase, if the stock was to drop and the IV increase slightly, this would actually drive my break even down further. So, uh, if there was a bit of a sell off and an increased IV, which we're we should be very aware of in this market environment, then the expiration P&L could be quite good.

Uh we looked at a potentially bullish trade idea on Apple that is lowrisk.

Now, why does 34% on gross margin matter for the full year? Well, because that's really similar to Apple, which is kind of exciting because, you know, Apple's a pretty high margin business. We know their stuff isn't exactly the cheap for a pretty penny. But if you go to any Apple financial statements, you'll see that their products also sell for about a 37% gross margin. Now, the thing that's different about Apple that gives Apple a big premium is they sell services at about a 70 to 75% gross margin that Bloom Energy doesn't. So, the Apple products that are selling for about 37% margin, so you know, you sell $100 worth of stuff, $37 goes into the business that they can then spend on research and G&A or advertising or whatever. Then they pay taxes on it, then they get their net, right? They got $37 $37 out of a hundred left. That is great because it doesn't just give you the $37. It leads more people to sign up for subscriptions to iCloud or, you know, whatever the the life software that they have for music or the subscriptions for any of their other products. Or just included. That's a big W for Apple because it's really high margin.

See, Apple's growth isn't that high, but it's stable. Apple's growth is like 9% stable. And that means they're trading for about a 3.7 PEG right now. In my opinion, Apple's actually about 40% overvalued right now because I like to combine, you know, a 35 PE ratio divided by the growth and go I don't want to pay that much for that growth. Now, there's hope that the CEO is going to help transition the company to more products and more AI revenues, but a lot of that hope is already priced in, all right?

So, Apple is very interesting because I calculated before I looked before I looked at the stock AI tab, I calculated um how much do I think Apple is worth? And I run their PEG at what I think a reasonable PEG is, like a 2422, somewhere in there. And I think Apple is overvalued to the tune of 40% was the estimate I came up with. My stock AI tool, and makeevin.com, shows me at a 45% downside for Apple. So, not really excited here just because so much hope is priced in. Maybe that growth rate will skyrocket, though. And if the growth rate for Apple skyrockets on new products and foldable phone, then you could justify a higher fair value, a higher terminal fair value for this company. But, we're really relying on growth and we're already we're not getting Apple for a discount to justify uh you know, hedging against that growth right now.

I mean, see, they make great margins. Actually, honestly, you could kind of compare Apple to Bloom. Uh, but Apple probably brings down from memory closer to 35%. So, Apple justifies a higher peg than these guys do. Uh, I will verify that in just a moment. So, let's see here. Apple. Okay. Well, I'm still grabbing some of these screenies here. Okay. Let's go. That's the Oracle doc. We saw the Oracle note from them. Deposits, the upfront deposits, upfront deposits coming in as deferred revenues. People always end up seeing that in their cash flow statement and then they're like, "Look at all this cash flow." But, you know, that's less than they're going to get up front because they're deposits. That's the whole point. That's all right. Bloom Energy. So, the big thing was bullish TAM. Just finish screening these bullish TAM. Let's grab this. This was their guidance. This was their operating guidance. So, gross margin, net margin, margin swings all over the place, and the talk about backlogs. Okay, perfect. So, let's put all that together and come up with some bottom lines. And Apple's becoming more of a service business, too. And those margins are very high.

And Apple's becoming more of a service business, too. And those margins are very high.

Therefore, uh justifies a lower peg than say an apple. What about let's see here. Let me pull Apple really quick. I think that'll this would be a useful time to do that. Investor relations. Apple. Come on. Uh oh, it's frozen. Come on, Apple. It's not that hard to load your SEC filings. Apparently, it is. Stupid thing's frozen. Can't do anything on it. Okay, fine. Restart the Google Chrome. That's a bummer. But it's okay. That's technology for you. Time to time to buy a Dell. All right, let's try again. Apple. I can't believe trying to load Apple's investor relations ended up crashing Google Chrome. Okay, here. So, net sales, I've got gross margin. Yeah, see, look at that gross margin. 54.7 divided by 109.4, but that's heavily because of software. That's 50%. So their net income is their net is 27. So actually you're getting closer to Apple. Theirs is really propped up though by services because Apple's products 47.1 divided by 78.6 cost them 60%. So I got a 40% gross margin. Okay. So, 40% gross margin versus like 35. You're getting there. You're getting there. Okay. All right. I think that's a fair comparison. So, I would almost call him like the Apple of AI infrastructure to some extent minus the the software part. So I got to rewrite this. Uh Bloom Energy BE uh gross margins on products are approaching Apple. Apple last Q gross margins are uh 40%. on products. Bloom uh gross margins are on products 593 divided by 935 63.4 36.5 36.5% on a product. So it's actually similar to Apple uh benefit for Apple uh so call it a PEG booster is the extra services revenue

So, net sales, I've got gross margin. Yeah, see, look at that gross margin. 54.7 divided by 109.4, but that's heavily because of software. That's 50%. So their net income is their net is 27. So actually you're getting closer to Apple. Theirs is really propped up though by services because Apple's products 47.1 divided by 78.6 cost them 60%. So I got a 40% gross margin.

Huh. Okay. We might do like a little summary on that. But I want to look at Apple for a moment. How is See in Apple. Think about Apple. I mean Bloom's growth is insane. Apple's growth is significantly slower, but that's already factored into the EPS growth level because just for comparison, let's put Apple in as a comparison. Uh, APL, Apple valuation, you know, just to compare. So, Apple's trading for like 310, call it 310 stock. Uh, a Ford EPS. I'm cutting this off. Ford EPS for Apple is Let's find out. See what their forecast is. Let's change that to APL. Okay. Uh, $8. $8.80. Okay, so $8.80 for Apple's EPS. $8.80 forward growth. Yeah, it's only like 10%. 8.61 1121 8.55 9.62 / 4 9.5%. Uh projected EPS growth. So that puts Apple at a $310 stock. These are a totally different parts of the growth cur growth curve. 35x PE. And if I divide that by 9.5% growth, dude, this is trading for a 3.7 peg, Apple uh is, you know, fundamentally overvalued at this level. I mean, I hate to say it, but you know, Apple could probably be trading for closer. I mean, with the services biz, what are their net margins fundamentally? Uh 29 30. Yeah, they're bringing down a lot more to the net. 29 because Bloom's not going to get to these levels divided by 109.4 with the ser 27% net fundamentally uh going to drive more net income than Bloom uh due to services. Maybe maybe that justifies a you know two two peg something like that right that really suggests Apple is over. So if I go 22 divided by 3.7, that's 40% 40% uh over fair value at Apple. Uh where be is closer to fair and and a lot of that I think is probably just hype on the CEO transition. Uh so CEO transition hype maybe, but you know, you got to execute. So, this is a little bit of work to do there.

Okay. So, gross margin, let's see. Yeah, se Apple I know is okay. That's about a 75% gross margin on the services. And that's the thing that Bloom doesn't have because the more products Apple sells, the more that becomes a sales pitch for the services. So, you're really much more concentrated on the manufacturing side that creates some risk and that's probably why Apple is pricing so much stronger. Uh, right. So Apple's pricing uh reflects that ARR the products enable you know in my opinion.

Now why does 34% on gross margin matter for the full year? Well, because that's really similar to Apple, which is kind of exciting because you know Apple's a pretty high margin business. We know their stuff isn't exactly the cheap for a pretty penny, but if you go to the Apple financial statements, you'll see that their products also sell for about a 37% gross margin. Now, the thing

See, Apple's growth isn't that high, but it's stable. Apple's growth is like 9% stable. And that means they're trading for about a 3.7 peg right now. In my opinion, Apple's actually about 40% overvalued right now because I like to combine, you know, 35 PE ratio divided by the growth and go, I don't want to pay that much for that growth. Now, there's hope that the CEO is going to help transition the company to more products and more AI revenues, but a lot of that hope is already priced in now, right?

So, Apple is very interesting because I calculated before I looked before I looked at the stock AI tab, I calculated um how much do I think Apple is worth and I run their peg at what I think a reasonable peg is like a 2 4 22 somewhere in there and I think Apple is overvalued to the tune of 40% was the estimate I came up with. My stock AI tool at mekevin.com shows me at a 45% downside for Apple. So, not really excited here just because so much hope is priced in. Maybe that growth rate will skyrocket though. And if the growth rate for Apple skyrockets on new products and foldable phone, then you could justify a higher fair value, a higher terminal fair value for this company. But we're really relying on growth and we're already we're not getting Apple for a discount to justify uh you know hedging against that growth right now.

There's Apple as bearish, and you know, Apple's been under a lot of pressure as you can see there.