$AAPL

基于蒂姆·库克成功的领导力和巨大的股东回报,说话者长期看好AAPL。

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Is Tim Cook the Greatest CEO of All Time? | WAYT?
The Compound发布 2026-09-01 · 32 段内容
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32 段内容
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上周我们谈到的一张图表,Ed Zitron 刚刚猛烈抨击过,是关于英伟达的盈利,过去 12 个月的净利润与亚马逊、苹果的比较。我说:“天哪,这太惊人了。”他说:“不,不是的。不,不是的。

这不是真的。这都是加价。”我说:“不,不是的。不是加价。”我们看了营业利润。图表完全一样。英伟达的营业利润,也就是业务实际产生的利润。

One of the charts that we spoke about last week that Ed Zitron just steamrololled over was Nvidia's earnings, net income over the last 12 months compared to Amazon, uh, compared to Apple. And I said, "Holy [ __ ] this is remarkable." And he go, "No, it's not. No, it's not. It's not real. It's all the markups." "No, it's not. It's not the markups." We looked at operating earnings. It's the exact same chart. Operating earnings for Nvidia, what the business is actually generating.

蒂姆·库克能进入史上最佳 CEO 的讨论吗?

Is Tim Cook in the conversation for best CEO of all time?

也许有人问过他关于苹果的事。哦,他做多天然气、做空苹果。还记得吗?就像那样,他们永远无法在没有史蒂夫·乔布斯的情况下延续苹果的辉煌。那很常见。那是大多数人的假设。人们卖出苹果,哦,没有史蒂夫·乔布斯,它就会变成一家设备公司,对吧?

Maybe somebody asked him about Apple. Oh, he's at buy buy natural gas short Apple. Remember that? like that like they'll never they'll never be able to continue the glory of Apple without Steve Jobs. That was very common. That's what most people's assumption was. People sold Apple, oh no Steve Jobs, it's just going to be a device company, right?

所以很多,史蒂夫·乔布斯为这家公司的成功奠定了基础,因为他有这样一个想法:所有产品都围绕一个软件生态系统,并且它们都能互操作,而且他远超前于时代地理解了这一切,比如 iCloud 等等。

So a lot and Steve Jobs set this company up for success because of this idea of having all the products surrounding a software ecosystem and they all work interoperably and um he understood all that way ahead of his time. the iCloud, etc.

苹果每股价值增长了 13 倍。想想看,在已经是当时全球最大市值或最大市值之一的基础上再增长 13 倍。

This is a 13x increase in the value of each share of Apple. Think about a 13x increase on what was already the largest market cap in the world or one of the largest market caps in the world at that time.

是 400 还是 500?是多少?2011 年。所以,不管当时是多少,都是数千亿级别。他让它增长了 13 倍。

Was it like 400 or 500? What was it? 2011. So, whatever it was, it was in the hundreds of billions. He 13xed.

他推出了手表。他推出了 AirPods。我不是说他自己坐在车间里制造它们。乔纳森·艾维在那里。显然,人才储备深得离谱,但那是在蒂姆·库克的任期内。史蒂夫·乔布斯在 AirPods 之前就去世了。

AirPods 是品类杀手。品类杀手。手表无处不在。这两样东西刚出来时没人兴奋,但他们停不下来购买。

He launched the watch. He launched the AirPods. I'm not saying he sat in a workshop and built them himself. Johnny IV was there. Obviously, it's a ridiculously deep bench of talent, but he that's under Tim Cook's watch. Steve Jobs died before the AirPods. The AirPods are a category killer. Category killer. The watch everywhere. Nobody was excited about either of these things when they came out, but they can't stop buying them.

他击退了卡尔·伊坎,卡尔·伊坎几乎做到了他的巅峰。不是现在 90 多岁的卡尔·伊坎。是 2012 年的卡尔·伊坎。

he fought off Carl Icon and Carl Icon almost did his prime. Not Carl Icon now in his 90s. Carl Icon in 2012.

但卡尔·伊坎难道没有得到他想要的吗?他想要股息和回购。

But didn't Carlon didn't didn't he get what he wanted? He wanted dividends and buybacks.

我认为他想要更多,而他满足于大规模回购。伊坎只想要向股东返还资本,卖掉一些东西。苹果没有什么可卖的,所以他只是希望他们这样做。

I think he wanted way more and he settled for a massive buyback. All the icon only wants return capital to shareholders sell things off. Apple had nothing to sell off so he just wanted them to.

卡尔是对的。那是正确的做法。那是一个有趣的时期。剔除现金。记得有一年剔除现金,苹果是在 2012 年。2012 年,该股以 12 倍市盈率出售。如果剔除现金,更接近 10 倍。

他们持有大量现金储备,在世界各地的银行和国库券中。苹果最著名的员工之一就是那个坐在内华达州一间没有窗户的办公室里管理国库头寸的人。

Carl was right. It was the right thing to do. That was an interesting time. Back out the cash. Remember that for a year back out the cash Apple was in 2012. In 2012, the stock was selling at 12 times earnings. And if you backed out the cash, it was closer to 10. They had a they had a substantial treasury of cash that they were holding tea bills in banks all over the world. And the most one of the most famous employees of Apple was the guy who sat in a windowless office in Nevada treasuries man managing the treasury position.

顺便说一句,唯一一家我见过人们说剔除现金的公司,我从未听说过其他公司被这样对待。现金太多了。总之,福特·伊坎给了一点打击,最终对股东来说效果非常好,我稍后会用图表来证明。

By the way, only company only company I've ever seen where for a year people said back out the cash. I've never heard that put on any other company. There was so much there was so much cash. Anyway, Ford Icon off gave a little whacked them off. ended up ended up working tremendously for shareholders which I will demonstrate with a chart in a minute.

在中国、印度、欧洲和世界各地的政治风向中游刃有余,比任何大型科技公司 CEO 都能做到。他们在欧洲喜欢他。他们在印度喜欢他。他们在中国喜欢他。

Um navigated the political winds in China, India, Europe and all over the world better than any large company, tech company CEO has been able to do. They like him in Europe. They like him in India. They like him in China.

与特朗普总统和习主席都交了朋友,非常好的朋友。想想看,与中国的统治者和美国的统治者,苹果两个最重要的市场,不知何故走钢丝,处理这些关系,这些关系对蒂姆·库克来说是成败攸关的。你必须搞定特朗普,否则他会用关税把你打回石器时代。

他做到了。我想他为他做了一顶王冠什么的。他给了他一个王冠。我忘了他做了什么。

made friends made friends with both President Trump and President Xi made very good friends think about this with the ruler of China and the ruler of America the two most important markets for Apple somehow walked that tightroppe navigated those relationships and those are make or break relationships if you're Tim Cook you got to get Trump right or else he's going to tariff you into the stone age he did it I think he made a crown for him or something. He gave him an eye crown. I forgot what he did.

而且完美地管理了苹果,苹果在两个层面上都很重要。它是苹果智能手机销量的第二大市场,也是所有制造的地方。不知何故,在两场独立的关税战中,能够走好这条线。他有多好,真是难以置信。

Also perfectly managed Apple and Apple is important on two levels. It's the number two market for smartphone sales for Apple and it's where all the manufacturing is being done. And somehow in the midst of two separate tariff wars was able to walk that line. It's unbelievable how good he is.

顺便说一句,那现在就是他的工作。他不再担任CEO,将出任执行董事长,而且他在告别信中明确表示,他将负责管理对苹果及其供应链至关重要的政治关系。他会继续做这件事,而很多人可能就此功成身退、安享晚年了。

And by the way, that's his job now. He's stepping back from CEO. He's going to be executive chairman and he specifically said in his farewell letter, I am going to manage the political um relationships that are important to Apple and its supply chain. Like he's going to still continue to do that, which a lot of guys would just sail off into the sunset.

公开出柜的CEO以前更常见,也更容易被接受。这是道指成分股公司的CEO。我的意思是,他公开出柜,也就是宣布自己是同性恋,但大家其实都知道他是。再说,如今这不像十年前或十二年前那样令人印象深刻了。但这是件大事,确实是件大事。

Um, openly gay CEO before this was more common and more accepted. This is the CEO of a Dow component. I mean coming I should coming out of the closet. Yes. like declaring that that he's gay, but everyone kind of knew that he was. Um, again, it's not as impressive today as it was maybe 10 or 12 years ago. It's a big deal. It's a big deal.

股东总回报率达2700%。这包括了从2011年8月到昨天他最后一天任期的股息。我不知道。你觉得有多少公司能做到这一点?有多少CEO?15年。想想他的起点。他接手时伯克希尔已经是股东,苹果也已经是全球市值最大的公司之一。而他在任期内仍然实现了2700%的总回报率。

2,700% total return for shareholders. So, that's inclusive of dividends from August of 2011 up until yesterday, his last day. Um, I don't know. How many companies do you think have been able to do that? How many CEOs? 15 years. And think about his starting point. He's already got Berkshire as a shareholder and he's already one of the largest market caps in the world. And he's still overseas a tenure of 2,700% total return.

把这张图调出来。这不是市值,这是股价,即股票价值加上股息。真是令人难以置信。我相信还有其他CEO也做过类似的事情,只是我现在一时想不起来,但能做到的肯定不多。

Put this chart up for me, guys. This is not market cap. This is the stock price, the value of the stock plus the dividends. Um, un unbelievable. I'm sure there are other CEOs who have done something like it that I'm not thinking of right now, but can't be a lot on the list.

查多夫,这个怎么样?他在任期内增加了4万亿美元的市值。除了黄仁勋,没有其他CEO做到过。没有别人。

Uh, Chardov, how about this? $4 trillion in added market cap under his tenure. No CEO other than Jensen. Nobody else.

你现在看到的是蒂姆·库克成为CEO以来苹果增加的市值。每年增加2870亿美元。就这样。每月增加240亿美元,每周、每天、每小时、每分钟、每秒都在增加。在过去15年里,他每秒增加9000美元。

What you're looking at here is Apple market cap added since Tim Cook became CEO. Per year, $287 billion per year. That's it. Per month, $24 billion a month added per week, per day, per hour, per minute, and per second. He added $9,000 every second of the last 15 years.

左边是苹果股价的变化,我们刚刚讲过。中间是市值变化,上涨了1226%。右边是流通股的变化。这就是回购。他们在15年里将流通股减少了44%。令人难以置信。

On the left, Apple share price change we just went over. In the middle, change in market cap 1,226%. And on the right, this is the change in shares outstanding. So, this is the buyback. They shrunk the float by 44% in 15 years. Unbelievable.

下一张图。苹果自2011年以来的增长。在蒂姆·库克时代,服务收入增长了1200%。iPhone增长了422%。毛利润增长了418%。净利润增长了400%。收入增长了331%。

Next chart. Apple's growth since 2011. Services 1,200% revenue growth in the in the Tim Cook era. iPhone 422% growth. Gross profits up 418%. Net income 400%. Revenue up 331%.

下一张图。这是利润率。毛利率上升了。这是一家消费科技公司。一百万年里也没人会想到这能实现。人们把它当成烤面包机那样的东西。在蒂姆·库克任期内,毛利率上升了820个基点。天哪。看看净利润率。看看营业利润率。

Next chart. These are margins. Gross margins are up. This is a consumer technology play. Nobody in a million years ever thought this would be possible. They think of this like toaster ovens. Gross margins up 820 points during Tim Cook's tenure. Holy [ __ ] Look at net margins. Look at operating margins.

下一张图。这是按产品划分的收入。红色是Mac,粉色是iPad,服务是浅蓝色,iPhone是深蓝色。

Next chart. This is um by product revenue. The red is uh the Mac. The pink is the iPad. Services light blue. iPhone dark blue.

iPad怎么做到300亿美元销售额的?这令人难以置信,因为这是一款永久性产品。你只需要更换它。再买一个,再买一个,再买一个。人们已经把它融入生活和工作中了。

How do they do $30 billion of sales in the iPad? It's unbelievable because because it's a forever product. You just you replace them. You get another one. You get another one. You get another one. People have it built into their lives, their workflows.

想想多年来人们骂苹果做的那些蠢事。有时候,你应该根据你没有做的所有事情来评判一个人。好的,这里是一份部分清单,因为时间有限:从未收购好莱坞电影公司。从未推出流媒体服务。对,从未收购流媒体平台。

从未收购电影资料库。从未收购社交媒体网络。买Snapchat,买Twitter。对,对,对。用棍子戳一下,动一动。从未做过。谢天谢地。你能想象苹果要管理社交网络上的评论吗?从未做过。

太明智了。当时这看起来太蠢了。2013年的传统观点是,你不拥有社交网络,你就什么都不是。微软收购了LinkedIn,Meta,也就是Facebook,收购了Instagram。你怎么能不做呢?但苹果就是没做。

think about all the stupid [ __ ] [ __ ] people yelled at Apple to do over the years. Sometimes you should be judged on all the things that you don't do. Okay, so here's a partial list cuz in the interest of time, never bought a Hollywood studio. Never started a streamer. Yes. Never bought a streaming platform. Never bought a film library. Never bought a social media network. Buy Snapchat. Buy Twitter. Right. Right. Right. Move through something poking with a stick. Never did it. Thank God. Can you imagine Apple having to police the comments on a social network? never did it. So smart. It seemed so dumb at the time. The conventional wisdom in 2013, you don't own a social network. You're nobody. Microsoft bought LinkedIn. Meta bought uh Facebook bought um Instagram. Like what do you mean you're not doing it? Didn't do it.

从未启动汽车部门。差点就做了。泰坦计划。他们差点和韩国人达成协议,开始造车。但没做。谢天谢地。没有追逐数据中心资本开支。从未做过。从未参与。没有大语言模型的研发。从未做过。没有灾难性的并购。

他们从Dr. Dre那里买了什么公司?他们以二三十亿美元收购了Beats,对吧?没有灾难性的并购。你无法想象这需要多大的克制。想想看,手握3000亿美元现金长达15年,却不做一笔交易。没有。想想那种克制。

never started a car division. Got close. Project Titan. They almost did a deal with the Koreans and started making cars. Didn't do it. Thank God. No data center capex chase. Never did it. Never bought in. No large language model uh R&D. Never did it. No disastrous M&A. What they buy company from Dr. Dre? They bought Beats for two three billion, right? No disastrous M&A. You have no idea the restraint that that's taken. Think about having $300 billion in cash for 15 years and not doing a deal. Not. Think about that restraint.

失败的产品很少。Vision Pro。就这一个。他们把它整理好了。对。还有U2预装,对吧?我们要把U2放到iPhone 3上。对。像这样的失败很少。少到一只手就能数得过来。

Very few flops. The Vision Pro. That's it. They they tidied it up. Yeah. The U2 preload, right? We're going to put U2 on the iPhone 3. Yeah. Like very few of those. So So few that I can count them on one hand.

为F1电影批准了院线上映。大获成功。还有《花月杀手》。我喜欢。把《足球教练》带到了世上,让我们都开心了一会儿,彼此相爱了一会儿。那部我不看的傻剧。反正,我听说了。

Green lit theatrical release for the Formula 1 movie. Massive hit. Um, Killers of the Flower Moon. I liked it. Brought Ted Lasso into the world. Made us all smile and love each other for a minute. That stupid show that I don't watch. Anyway, I listen.

蒂姆·库克的业绩记录。他做得非常出色。他做得非常出色。部分归功于蒂姆·库克。我认为他比乔布斯更胜一筹。哦,我应该披露一下,我持有苹果的多头仓位。

Tim Cook's track record. He's done he's done a great job. He's done a fantastic job. thanks in part to Tim Cook. I put him above Jobs. Oh, I should probably disclose. I'm long I'm long Apple.

我长期看好苹果。

I'm long Apple.

这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断

The Compound 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-01看涨本条
上周我们谈到的一张图表,Ed Zitron 刚刚猛烈抨击过,是关于英伟达的盈利,过去 12 个月的净利润与亚马逊、苹果的比较。我说:“天哪,这太惊人了。”他说:“不,不是的。不,不是的。这不是真的。这都是加价。”我说:“不,不是的。不是加价。”我们看了营业利润。图表完全一样。英伟达的营业利润,也就是业务实际产生的利润。
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