看好苹果基本面(Mac增长),但认为当前估值过高;倾向于在折价时买入。
逐段跳播
那些折叠手机,你无法打开观看 Apple TV Plus,我认为这有点……问题是人们会买它。我认为人们对苹果的误解在于人们会买这款手机。
Well, those foldable phones phones you couldn't open up and watch Apple TV Plus, which I think is kind of And the thing is people are going to buy it. I think that's what people are missing about Apple is people are going to buy this phone.
如果你能把 iPhone Fold 放进口袋,显然你能够做到,那么你现在就有了一个更大的设备,希望你能在上面使用手写笔。
If you could put the iPhone Fold in your pocket, which obviously you will be able to, man, now you actually have a larger device that you could use hopefully, you know, the uh stylus on.
那么,让我们更深入地探讨这个问题。
Uh so, anywh who uh okay, so let's go deeper here uh into this.
天哪,他们本有潜力把这次活动办得真正精彩。这是苹果。实际上很有趣。苹果基本上在 332 美元有一条线,我们接近了但被拒绝了,差了两美元。
Man, they had so much potential to make this a real bitching event. Here's Apple. It's actually interesting. Apple's uh basically I got a line here at 332 on Apple. We got within two bucks and rejected here.
苹果。其中一些很无聊。
Apple. Some of these are boring.
哦,他们把你带到他们的网站,因为他们不想向苹果支付 30% 的费用。
Oh, they take you to their website because they don't want to pay the 30% to Apple.
苹果下跌 2%,苹果打折。
Apple down 2% and Apple discount.
我们还面临一个问题,即 Mac 现在推出了这些令人惊叹的 256 到 512 统一内存产品,这是看涨的。苹果实际上可以将其增长率从华尔街预期的 9% 大幅提升至 20%。这再次对苹果有利。
我希望苹果股票能打折,因为我看好苹果。我只是觉得现在有点贵。如果我现在要按苹果的价格支付,我觉得不如以这些估值买入网络安全股。
we also have a problem coming from the fact that Mac is now blowing out these amazing 256 to 512 unified RAM products, which is bullish. Apple honestly could totally surge their growth rates from a Wall Street expected 9% to 20%. Which again, bullish Apple. I want there to be a discount on freaking Apple stock because I'm bullish Apple. I just think it's a little pricey right now. Like if I'm going to pay the Apple pricing right now, I feel like I'm better off buying cyber security plays at at these sort of values.
显然,我是 Apple Watch 的忠实爱好者,热爱健身、跑步和去健身房锻炼。
Obviously, a big Apple Watch enthusiast, love fitness, love running, love working out in the gym.
所以,从物理上的双重论证来看,我不知道你是否能够……可能你无法在近距离和光线充足的情况下看到这个放大的画面。我认为你无法看到它。但物理上的问题是,这实际上会在你锻炼时刮到很多奥林匹克杠铃。
所以我最终不得不在你最不想摘下来的时候把它摘下来。比如你做引体向上之类的,这有点烦人。所以作为一个举重训练者,我觉得这很烦人,而且它真的被刮花了,损坏了。我想你可以选择不锈钢颜色,但我买的是黑色。
随着时间的推移,当你在健身房实际使用它时,它看起来有点糟糕,如果这是一个健康设备,那有点糟糕。
So, on the twofold physical argument, so I don't know if you'd be able to there's probably no way you're going to be able to see this zoomed in up close and with light. I don't think you're going to be able to see it. Uh, but the problem with this physically is this will actually scrape up against a lot of your Olympic weight bars when you're working out. And so I end up having to take it out off exactly when you don't want to take it off. Like if you're doing pull-ups or whatever, it's kind of annoying. So I found that to be annoying as like a, you know, somebody weight training and it's really scratched up and really damaged. You know, I guess you could get more of a stainless color, but I got the black color. it just it kind of looks like crap over time when you actually use it in the gym, which if it's a health device, that kind of sucks.
好的,第二个问题是,虽然心率变异性是这款产品和 Whoop 都能追踪而 Apple Watch 不能的,但苹果预计将在下周的苹果活动中进行革新。所以你可以等待看看那个催化剂是什么。
但他们的 Apple Watch。现在,我也是在工作时佩戴 Apple Watch 的忠实粉丝,因为你可以获得心率追踪。你可以追踪你的锻炼、健身、卡路里消耗,同时还能收到电话、短信、日历事件、闹钟等通知。
睡眠追踪。你在这上面获得了很多功能。你在这上面唯一得不到的是心率变异性追踪。如果苹果推出心率变异性功能,你就扼杀了 Aura Ring 和 Whoop 的一大优势。我认为公司知道竞争即将到来。
因此,在高峰期 IPO 是最佳时机。在我看来,这对未来的投资者来说不是好兆头。
Okay, the second uh issue with this is that while heart rate variability is something that this and the Whoop can track and the Apple Watch can't, Apple is expecting to revamp at their Apple event next week. So, you could wait to see what that catalyst is. but their Apple Watch. Now, I'm a big fan of wearing the Apple Watch as well while working out because you get heart rate tracking. You get to track your workout, your fitness, your calorie expenditures while still getting notifications for phone calls or texts, calendar events, alarms, whatever. Sleep tracking. You get a lot on this. The one thing you don't get on this is heart rate variability tracking. If Apple comes out with heart rate variability, you kill one of the big benefits of the Aura Ring and the Whoop. And I think the company knows that competition is coming. Hence, best time to IPO at peak. That's doesn't bode well for future investors in my opinion.
除了你在这里面临的竞争之外,你还有 Whoop,但这带来了这两者的第二个物理缺点。也许对某些人来说这更像是一种虚荣心的问题。很多人可能不在乎,但你总是会有佩戴更多设备带来的晒痕问题。
手表也是如此,但如果你戴着手表、Whoop 和 Aura Ring,从美观上讲,对大多数人来说不是最好的。所以,我觉得有很多人会说,呃,有个限度。我会接受数据。我得到了数据。现在,你知道吗?
我不再想要那种义务了。现在,Whoop 试图通过说你可以穿带有 Whoop 传感器的衣服(比如内衣)来扭转局面。但这必须经常更换,因为如果你穿着锻炼的衣服,它会变臭,而且你几乎每天都要洗,尤其是内衣。
所以,所有这些健康追踪器的功能用途,长期来看,最大的赢家最终将是 Apple Watch,在我看来。
Uh in addition to this uh competition that you have here, you do have Whoop, but that brings up the second physical downside of both of these. Maybe it's just more of like a vanity thing for some people. A lot of people might not care, but you're always going to kind of have like the tan line issue with the more var more uh devices that you wear. It's true of the watch, but if you're wearing a watch, a Whoop, and the Aura ring, cosmetically, it's not the best for most people. So, I feel like there are a lot of folks who are like, h, there's a limit. Like, I'll take the data. I got the data. Now, you know what? I don't want that obligation anymore. Now, Whoop has tried to flip that on its head by saying, well, you could wear like clothing that keeps the Whoop sensor in it, like underwear. But that has to be changed out a lot because if you're wearing stuff for working out, it gets smelly and you kind of got to wash it every single day, especially underwear. So, the functional purposes of like all these health trackers, the best the biggest winner long term is going to end up being in my opinion the Apple Watch.
而且你现在在 AirPods 中也面临竞争,它们正在追踪你耳朵里的脉搏,以尽量减少你必须佩戴的可穿戴设备的数量。
And you've also now got competition in the uh AirPods where they're tracking your your you know uh your pulse in your ear to try to minimize the kind the level of wearables that you have to wear.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 7 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。