苹果的个人情境AI战略与高效资本开支带来高回报和较低波动，尽管被视为落后，其定位依然有利。

You say what really matters of everything we got today is not this foldable phone, it's not the iPhone 18, it's not the watch, it's not any of that. It is the software update that is coming our way on Monday.

Because it sort of bears out this thesis that I've been putting forth, you know, in the face of much criticism for the last couple of years. And that is that this walled garden that Apple has, what they're now referring to as personal context, is the real value behind what Apple has to offer in AI moving forward.

And one of the mentions in in the event today was this idea that some of these advanced features are going to cost you a little extra money. So, Apple might end up being the most profitable purveyor of AI services over the next few years on the globe.

I mean, these events are not typically huge catalysts for Apple. Today's slightly different setup with the new CEO at the helm. But right now we're down about two tenths of a percent. Is there an argument to be made that the markets are just fully underestimating what personal context could mean overall for Apple? They just haven't caught up here.

Yeah, I think this is a failure of the verticalization of analysis. People are looking at this from the perspective of the devices and we know what what what was announced and is the new 18 Pro Max that much better and you know, everybody's got a folding phone. Does the duo really matter? What will that is that going to move the needle? They're missing the headline here. The headline here is all about personal context in AI.

Here one of my quotes is hey, they let everyone else build the highway system. They've got several billion users that are ready to now drive on this highway system. So I think people are just missing it frankly.

We've talked so much about Apple being the laggard in AI and at many points Apple has been the laggard period, but you have a comparison. $13 billion to $700 billion. The 13 of course is Apple's capex. The 700 is the capex for Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta.

When you look at it like that and you apply your thesis that they may have just because of their walled garden won this AI race because they already have the established user base, does that mean that the rest of these names massively over spent on AI infrastructure?

I would characterize it as as follows. I would say that the investment of 13 billion is going to have much higher returns than the 700 billion will across a similar time horizon. I'd say two three years out we'll be able to validate that and look back and say wow, that investment from Apple was was strategic and I think this moment with this release of iOS 27 will be seen as the beginning of their consolidation around this idea of personal context.

And let's talk about this strategy because a billion dollars about per year of what Apple's spending is in a custom model that they're basically renting a Gemini model from Google. So as you look at that, is that smart capital allocation or have they opened themselves up to a strategic vulnerability because they've relied on a competitor for the core intelligence?

Well, there's a there's a bigger question at play and the question is where does the value of AI really live and is it in the leading edge of frontier models, the most expensive models, or is it in this sort of open weight universe of models that everyone else is supporting right now? And I think the answer to your question is that is good enough always will beat perfect in the market. And so if Apple is proving out that they have rented good enough, they don't have to be as good as the frontier model perveyors. They don't have to invest as much in CapEx to build out those capabilities because what they'll deliver is good enough layered on top of personal context.

And so as we get this roll out, it's only in English to start. It's not going to be available in the EU, in China. How much does the geographic limited constraint here? Does it affect the potential opportunity because there are likely also regulatory hurdles involved in in these other two areas?

So if you're looking at this in terms of the stock symbol and and as an investor, that will definitely serve as a moderator in terms of uh how value will be unlocked. There will be things that you and I will be able to do in the US well before our compatriots in other countries will have access to them.

And Dave, let's talk about the foldable phone because obviously that's the the big headline, the foldable phone is here. Do you view this as as a real potential growth driver for Apple or is this just another premium offering that isn't really going to move the needle overall because the price point is so high?

Yeah, yeah. It It's It's cool and if you're an Apple person, you look at this like, "Oh my gosh, a folding phone. It's the first time you've ever seen one." So, it's not going to move the needle in comparison to again this personal context idea with AI. But I think I I think it's going to perform better than people expect even at the $2,000 plus price point, but I would not be looking to it as the foundation of of Apple's valuation and you know, and stock price moving forward.

And how about the Apple Watch? With this intense development in the AI and its personal context and its ability to go through your metrics and everything you have stored in your Apple ecosystem, I've had a few conversations about how the Apple Watch could really become the next big growth driver as it moves more into this health and wellness. It already has access to your metrics. Is there an untapped AI potential in the Watch in terms of offering health services here that we should be keeping an eye on?

Yeah, absolutely. And again, it goes back to personal context. In fact, the most personal of context, your health information. And so as the devices that you're wearing on your wrist become more intelligent and more accurate and as they can gather more data, that data absolutely feeds into this idea of personal context and and something that can be leveraged from a value perspective. Yeah, so that's a big big driver.

And so as you're as you're looking at at all of these releases, we finally got the AI update. You're thrilled with it. The market may not have caught on quite yet to how thrilled they should or should not be at this point. But what does John Turnus have to do next? I mean, this was his first event. We made a a big hullabaloo about his first event. We got the foldable phone, but now we've got this software. He's the hardware guy. So is the software update and the AI going to be enough to really drive if we can get the rest of the market to catch on here, or does he need to have another flashy product lineup to keep the confidence behind him?

No, in my opinion, it's all about staying the course. He's been He's been handed the tiller. As long as he doesn't steer the ship into the rocks, they're going to be just fine. And people will continue to accuse Apple of being laggards, first followers, and that's fine with the foldable device, with with the area of AI, but the reality remains they have our data and we trust them to a certain degree. Those are both huge hurdles to overcome. Those are huge barriers of entry barriers to entry for anyone who would seek to compete. And so I do see them as a less volatile um a place to park park money moving forward. But as far as the new CEO is concerned, right now it's time to just stay on a steady course. And you know, in the next 2 years, he'll have his moment where where some new development will be assigned to him personally.