$AAPL

新款折叠屏 iPhone 因稀缺性在短期内销售良好,但长期大规模普及将因高昂的入门成本而推迟。

他说的是几个月内
《iPhone Duo & Siri AI Raise APPL Interest: Will it Boost Sales?》
Schwab Network发布 2026-09-12 · 6 段内容
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6 段内容
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这对 Apple 来说是新的,但如果你关注消费科技领域,就会知道折叠屏到现在已经存在了五年。所以 Samsung,尤其是在美国,一直在做这类设备。Google 做的是 Pixel。

这些设备已经面世了,只是一直没有向 Apple 用户开放。Apple 在这件事上花了些时间,但他们确实做得很好,推出的第一代产品基本上超过了 Samsung 目前第七代和第八代产品所处的水平。

It's new for Apple, but if you follow the consumer tech space, you know, foldables have been around for a half a decade at this point. So Samsung, especially United States, has been making these devices.

Google makes the Pixel. Uh so these devices have been out there. They just never been available to Apple users. And you know, Apple took their time with it, but they did a really nice job of coming out with a Gen One product that basically beats sort of where Gen 7 and Gen 8 products are currently for Samsung.

是的,我认为这会——别误会,这款设备会卖得很好。它会卖断货,但我认为部分原因也是制造这么复杂的设备会存在一些供应限制。不过我认为人们需要几代产品的时间才会接受它。它起售价是 2,000 美元,比人们习惯的手机价格高得多。

现在你可以说,嘿,我正打算换一部新 iPhone,而且我通常喜欢有一台 iPad mini,现在你基本上只要一台设备就能做所有这些事。所以对这些人来说,这确实说得通。但如果你只是从上一代 iPhone 换过来,这对很多人来说是个很高的要求。

所以我认为这会——我们会看到大幅增长。它会帮助整个折叠屏品类,但我仍然认为,普通人要接受它还需要一段时间。

Yeah, I think it's going to be um don't get me wrong, this device will sell well. It'll sell out, but that's also I think partly because there's going to be some supply constraints here on making such a complicated device.

Uh, but I think it'll take a couple generations for people to get on board. You know, it does start at $2,000, which is much higher than what people are used to with phones. Now, you can make the argument, hey, I'm in the market for a new iPhone, and I usually like having an iPad mini, you know, you can just get one device now, basically, and do all that.

So, for those people, it does make sense. But if you're just coming from the last gen iPhone, you know, this is a big ask for a lot of people. So, I think it's going to um we'll see a big increase.

It's going to help the foldable category as in as a whole, but I still think, you know, it's going to take a little while for your average person to sort of get on board with it.

我的猜测是,Apple 实际上在这里承担了大量成本,并提高了 MacBook、iPad 和其他设备的价格,而不是尽可能提高 iPhone 的价格,因为 iPhone 占其业务的 50% 以上。

所以他们并不想大幅抬高成本。我认为与其他一些公司相比,100 美元本身并不算多,但它确实是一次涨价,对吧?不过本来可能涨得多得多,或者本来可能涨 200 美元,那就会更有分量。

所以我认为他们只是在这里挪动数字。他们正试图在现有情况下尽量让 iPhone 产品线保持可负担。

My guess is that Apple is actually eating a lot of the costs here and raising the prices on its MacBooks and iPads and other devices versus trying to increase the prices as much as they can on the iPhone because the iPhone makes up over 50% of their business.

So, they don't really want to jack up the cost too much. I think $100 is not a lot per se compared to some other companies, but it is an increase, right? But it could have been a lot more. or it could have been $200 more, which would have been more significant.

So, I think they're just moving the numbers around here. They're trying to keep the iPhone line as affordable as it can considering the circumstances.

我确实相信他们正在追赶上来。我还要说,总体而言在消费市场,AI 对很多这类设备来说并没有成为很大的卖点。它不是升级的理由。我确实认为他们正在做的 AI 图像认证其实是个挺酷的想法,我认为这有助于这个话题。

我不认为这是人们会去升级的理由,除了一小群需要这类功能的非常小众的人群。但这里的 AI 我认为挺有意思,不过我不认为它是人们升级的理由。还有其他一些不错的理由去买新的 iPhone 18 Pro 和 Pro Max,比如。

I do believe they're catching up. I'll also say just in general with the consumer market, AI really hasn't been a big seller for a lot of these devices. It's not a reason to upgrade.

I do think the AI authentication of images is actually kind of a cool idea that they're doing and I think that helps uh the conversation. I don't think it's a reason why people are going necessarily upgrade outside of a very niche group of people who need that sort of functionality.

But um you know the AI here I think is interesting but I don't think it's a reason for people to upgrade. There are some other good reasons to get the new iPhone 18 uh Pro and Pro Max for instance.

是的。所以问题将在于可用性和功能性,对吧?很多时候他们展示的演示,比如有人给你发短信,然后它就会去帮你在餐厅订位,这挺巧妙的,但普通人其实并不会真的做这类事情。所以我认为这归结为,人们学会之后离不开的那种杀手级功能是什么,而到目前为止在 AI 方面,我们在消费领域确实还没看到这样的功能。

企业领域有点不同。所以我对这件事有点谨慎。我认为 Apple 在财务上处于有利位置,既能去追求 AI,因为他们不像其他一些公司投入那么多。但与此同时,我们确实还没看到那么多杀手级产品,或者因为这些功能而升级这些设备的理由。

我认为这只是值得关注的事情。几年后情况可能会改变,但现在那里还没有多少东西。

Yeah. So the question is going to be about usability and functionality, right? So a lot of times they see show demonstrations of like someone texts you and it's like oh it's going to go make a reservation for you at a restaurant and it's kind of neat but your average person actually isn't really kind of doing that kind of stuff.

So I think this comes down to what is the kind of killer feature that people learn that they can't live without and so far when it comes to AI we really haven't seen that in the consumer space.

Enterprise is a bit different. So I'm a little cautious about this. I think Apple is in a good position financially both to pursue AI because they're not as invested as some other companies are.

But at the same time, we really haven't seen that many killer uh products or reasons to upgrade to these devices for those features. And I think it's just something to watch. That may change in a couple years, but right now it's not much there right now.

Apple 对这次发布给出了不错的回应,这也是 John Turnis 作为 CEO 的首次活动。它们上涨了 2.5%。

Well, Apple having a nice response to this release and John Turnis' first event as CEO. They're up two and a half%.

这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 15 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-12本条
这对 Apple 来说是新的,但如果你关注消费科技领域,就会知道折叠屏到现在已经存在了五年。所以 Samsung,尤其是在美国,一直在做这类设备。Google 做的是 Pixel。这些设备已经面世了,只是一直没有向 Apple 用户开放。Apple 在这件事上花了些时间,但他们确实做得很好,推出的第一代产品基本上超过了 Samsung 目前第七代和第八代产品所处的水平。
2026-09-11看涨
这是一个我一直在反复提及的想法,很像Micron。它和上周重复。我的看法略有不同。这不全是iPhone的功劳,更多是那个人。对John Turnis非常兴奋,而当这些台式Mac真正上市时更是非常非常兴奋。我一直想预订一台。发货已经推迟到1月。但AI这个故事,我认为现在比iPhone更大。很多人没有意识到这一点,但公司有了新的CEO。所有这些搭载AI增强硬件的新Mac正在进入市场。而对我来说,我只是把iPhone当作额外赠品撒上去。但我很喜欢这只股票,把它当作一个AI标的。
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