AAPL 具备强劲的上行潜力，动力来自新的服务器业务与 iPhone Duo，增速有望超过当前的增长预期。

Two reasons Apple stock is set to rip. One, they're now in talks to get into servers to use their own chips and essentially compete with Nvidia using Nvidia's networking hardware in Apple servers.

But anyway, we got to talk about that and what that could do to the price of Apple stock. Second, we got to talk about the Apple iPhone Duo. then we're also going to look at why a portion of Apple's business that is suffering makes the Apple Duo so primed right now for Apple stock.

The iPad segment of Apple's business is literally shrinking. It is the only sector that's uh shrinking by 6% per year. Wearables are growing at 6%. Mac is growing at 28%.

We believe they're selling that compute on M4 Mac Minis because we went to uh their website, grabbed some of their specs, and the specs on their website suggest that they are using the M4-24G, which just so happens to align perfectly with the fact that Apple sells this, the Mac Mini 2024 M4 chip, 24GB.

B of unified RAM is actually pretty good. It's nothing like the new studios they've got. The new studios are pretty incredible, which is a whole reason you're probably seeing as much growth as you are over in the Mac Studio division at 28% or the Mac division.

That's remarkable uh compared to iPhone at 21%. Really remarkable potential over here.

I think people bagging on the fact that the front camera is under display and therefore it's not going to be as high quality for your FaceTime conversations is an overblown complaint.

It's hard enough right now to get people to upgrade the iPad and therefore I think the Duo is a huge growth vertical for this business in both uh I mean it's going to be in the iPhone category but it'll absorb you know iPad will go even more negative but it'll be more than offset I think by over here with high margin iPhone sales thanks to the Duo and these will sell out for a very long time.

The data center piece is from the information and you know now it's essentially being reported uh all over the place but I find it very interesting because just a few weeks ago the information reported how companies are buying Mac hardware that uh Nvidia actually sees Apple as a big competitor in local AI because they have the DGX Spark an AI desktop computer which isn't even as good as just having a workstation with like a Blackwell 6000 or a 5090 in But most the most advanced models of Mac minis and Mac Studios, which have the chips and memory configurations most appealing to AI developers, have been out of stock for months.

But this whole information piece now introduces a whole new vertical for Apple that kind of makes them seem like a potential high margin Dell play.

Apple considers return to server market has talked to Nvidia about using network tech. Basically, Apple would use the NVLink fusion which is the same technology that ASIC uh designers like Marll or Qualcomm are using to integrate with uh uh Nvidia stacks because Nvidia is a manufacturer really of the whole data center array, the whole thing top to bottom.

But Apple now wants to compete with their CPUs, their GPUs, and then use NVLink to partner with it, which Nvidia already sees Apple as a threat uh for ondevice, but now they could even be a threat in data center.

but this is a catalyst for Apple and my estimates are probably too conservative for what this could end up doing. But this Nvidia uh sorry, this um this product is expected to hit the market in 2029, unless of course they cancel it.

The new CEO has been a backer of this project uh when it started about a year ago.

Apple's overhaul of Siri is a gamecher. You could already try the Siri AI uh beta. I think it's pretty good. Uh it's just slow. Ondevice AI processing is still slow.

That's where these Apple centric secure data center plays. We're going to be a big opportunity for Apple whether they have their own or they license from Apple authorized data center folks or people just want these Apple data centers themselves because it works and it's cost effective which sounds crazy for an Apple product.

The point is it could generate substantial sales uh in the Mac division for Apple. Now, Apple does have a big services division, so that does kind of compress some of the upside potential, but here are my thoughts.

I bet the Apple margins for this kind of product would be close to 50%. Nvidia sits at about 75%. Product margins right now are about 40%. And they are up from last year in part because of this shift towards max which are more expensive a little bit because of tariff refunds uh and I think they had a hole last year that they were comparing to but their margins are up 5.6% technically quarter compared to last year's uh same quarter.

Uh I think that right now this is very hard to value. If I value them at like 15% of Nvidia sales, this is probably like a 75 to$100 billion product. At 50% or bring it down to 30% net margins, this adds about 22 to maybe $30 billion to their bottom line in 2030.

That's about 15% higher than the current estimates from analysts. But I don't think analysts are pricing in how this changes the growth trajectory after that.

Current pricing trajectory for Apple is that their growth rate is going to average about 9%. Which actually makes them look like an expensive stock. Between servers and the iPhone Duo, I think they can easily exceed a 20% growth rate.

And if I look at a company like this and I take them at their current multiples, which is it's trading for 333, I divide them by their earnings of 883, that's trading for 37 times.

But if their growth is 25 uh% especially as they scale servers into the 2030s assuming there isn't you know some major crash obviously any stock does poorly in that but uh in that case at those sort of margins you can probably even bump Apple to like a 26 peg you could be looking at close to a $600 stock which means a company that is as big as Apple you know essentially a $5 trillion company could essentially double uh within the next maybe even three years once that gets priced in, which is pretty remarkable.

So maybe it's ludicrous, but for a $4.86 billion stock, I've got a tiny exposure, you know, to in total, we've got a tiny exposure to Apple. So it's it's not like this is like, oh, talk your book or whatever.

It's it's too small of a position. But I'll just be transparent. I I would buy more Apple uh in anticipation of their growth well exceeding 9% and their margins remaining durable.