AAPL 当前估值缺乏吸引力：约 10% 的增速对应 29-34 倍市盈率，若要实现两位数回报，需要更快的增长或大规模回购。

So, we'll give you a very good example of one of the most beautiful business models ever, which is Apple, right? Apple, a fantastic growth company over the past 20 or 25 years, no argument there, right?

Think about it. Steve Jobs returned to Apple in the late 1990s and stabilized the balance sheet. He was already a proven and competent CEO , wasn't he? Now, they have also stabilized their computer business, gotten rid of some bad businesses and products, and launched the iPod and iTunes store.

And then , things started to go wild around 2003, didn't they ? Thus, at that moment, they already had a very stable business model.

Listen, with a company like Apple, which has a proven CEO and a stable business model at this point in time, right? This is now a company you can bet on because you can say this won't be the only time they innovate.

They will come up with other game-changing products . They have this guy, Steve Jobs, leading the company. He has proven time and again his ability to create products that take off and start selling like crazy, hasn't he ?

And so it would be a period of time in which you could bet on the company.

Listen, if you had bet on Apple in 2003, the stock had already risen considerably from what it had been a few years prior. But that's okay . You won't get the price at the very bottom.

You know, if you bet on Apple in 1998, that was a very risky time to bet on Apple . The business model and balance sheet were not in good shape. Betting on Apple in 2003, 2004 and 2005 was much easier when they had stability, okay ?

Much easier. There may not have been much money to be earned, but guess what? If you bet on Apple in these years, you have made life-changing profits.

Then Apple comes along and unveils the iPhone in 2007. A new market opportunity , isn't it? This is a great opportunity to look back at Apple in those days , isn't it? And this was before I entered the market, wasn't it?

I haven't entered the market until about this stage. But this was a great opportunity as Apple grew into a new field. They are growing in a new space, aren't they? You can still bet on Apple and you can see how they will be able to grow this business.

Then they release and showcase the iPad in 2010. Well, they're moving more towards mobile devices, are n't they? Then, around this time, they release AirPods and Apple Watch, right?

Their next generation of game-changing products. Thus, you can see how this company can continue to grow and expand into new markets. It wasn't just, you know, you could look at it at the time and think it was confined to computers only.

Then the iPod appeared, and the reaction was, "Okay, we get it." Then came the iPhone and the iPad, and what happened in the era of Steve Jobs and Jony Ive was legendary, of course, wasn't it?

Thus, you can see how this company can continue to grow and expand into new markets. It wasn't just, you know, you could look at it at the time and think it was confined to computers only.

Then the iPod appeared, and the reaction was, " Okay, we get it." Then came the iPhone and the iPad, and what happened in the era of Steve Jobs and Jony Ive was legendary, of course, wasn't it?

Therefore, the way you view Apple today is completely different from how you viewed Apple during that era. Listen, if you're considering investing in a company like Apple these days, okay?

It is closer to being a value stock. So, what do you need to look at regarding value stock? A stock that pays dividends. Well, you need to consider things like competitive advantage.

Like how strong the company's competitive advantage is to stand up to competitors, right ? So, I would be thinking about Apple's ecosystem these days if I were looking at a stock like Apple.

I'm not really going to think about what's next, whether they'll release the next iPhone? No, they're not going to release a revolutionary new iPhone, okay? They will simply continue to develop and improve their existing products a little over time, and that's all there is to it, right ?

So, it's not as if they need to introduce a new, game-changing product that no one has ever seen before, is it? They just need to keep improving their existing products little by little over time, right?

So, they have a good competitive advantage around their business thanks to the software side, right ? I think about a company like Apple in terms of the price-to-earnings ratio I pay per share compared to the expected future growth rates of that particular company.

This should guide me in some way to determine whether Apple is a good buying opportunity or not, right?

Okay, here are my predictions for Apple over the next few years, right ? I believe Apple will achieve revenue growth of approximately 10% on average. I believe it will achieve similar growth in net income on average, don't you think ?

Now, for a company like Apple that has such a strong competitive advantage and is achieving such growth rates, I can't possibly value it at a price-to- earnings ratio of between 29 and 34 , can I?

Under this optimistic scenario, Apple's compound annual growth rate would be roughly in line with the S&P 500, wouldn't it? So, for Apple to be a very sensible investment, they must first repurchase a large quantity of shares over time, right?

Because that will help raise earnings per share more quickly, so if you can increase net income by an average of 12% per year, right? Assuming this optimistic scenario, if you repurchase a lot of shares, your earnings per share could increase by 14% or so , making the compound annual growth rate you would get from the stock higher than what is shown here , right?

Or you need Apple to grow at a faster pace than 10% per year on average over the coming years. If it can do either or both of those things , Apple is likely to achieve double- digit returns over the next four or five years .

But if they can't do that, then Apple isn't actually a very attractive stock to buy right now, is it? Therefore, based on my numbers, Apple is not a very attractive stock to buy.

It's not a bad stock. Simply put, there are far better opportunities in the market in my opinion over the next four or five years compared to a company like Apple, right?