AAPL 产品发布表现强劲，但市盈率已超过 38 并逼近 40，面临估值风险。

A big day for Apple as the new flagship iPhones officially arrive in stores today. Evercore ISI says the launch could push the stock even higher, raising its price target to $380.

This is an increase from its previous price of $365.

Evercore maintains its "outperforming" rating on the company's shares. The company anticipates a better-than-expected iPhone update cycle. Evercore sees potential for price increases of more than 20% thanks to higher average selling prices, the availability of more premium models, and customer demand for larger memory options.

And don't forget that today's launch does not include the foldable phone, which some analysts see as a major incentive for Apple. Before moving on to your trading examples, we want to know what each of you thinks about Apple.

Kevin, let's start with your opinion about Apple. You're right, the biggest event might be in October when the foldable phone is launched, but you can get the iPhone now.

I know that Apple Watches are being delivered today to those who pre-ordered them. So, all the new products have started to reach the markets.

The stock is not performing well, but I think this is a standout release, and ultimately the company is valued based on sales. Looking at the stock, as you know, the price-to-earnings ratio is above 38.

Once the price-to-earnings ratio approaches 40, the stock's valuation becomes somewhat high.

Therefore, it can be said that the stock has performed remarkably well here, with a significant drop after the earnings announcement, followed by a recovery to these levels. He did well, but he's not having a great day today despite this outstanding release.

But how many times, Tom and Diane, have you seen anticipation for an event followed by a drop in Apple's stock when it happens?

This happens often, so the price movement is not surprising, but whether you love or hate Apple will not be decided today. The matter will be settled when these foldable phones appear and the reviews start coming out, Diane and Tom.

Yes, I think you should start by looking at Apple's stock valuations. They are historically rich, but they have grown to keep pace with that in the last few quarters they have reported.

They've had a super-boom cycle with version 17. Now, an Evercore memo has highlighted the fact that the upgrade cycle for some of the 4,000 people surveyed will be better than we've seen in the past, and that's likely to be beneficial to them.

I don't know who is still waiting outside these stores for a phone. I don't know why they do that. This is ridiculous. Just order it online or go pick it up later. I don't know, maybe for an Instagram snapshot.

But also, there is a major event coming up on October 16 when they start taking pre-orders for the dual phone. This will be of great benefit to them. Also, the stock is down only 3% from its all-time high reached just over a month ago.

Guys, I ordered a new watch as a gift, and I clicked and ordered without leaving my office. So, yes, I think those were Apple employees who were cheering and clapping more than they were actual customers.

Anyway, I think this is definitely not negative for Apple's stock, is it? These are good versions. These are new products. A new phone is released, and a new idea emerges. So, it is certainly not a negative thing.

However, as Tom said and I mentioned, the rating has become a bit too high. So, I looked for something that would allow me to make a slight upward or profitable trade within a defined range.

So I looked at the "calendar gap", buying the October 9th issue and selling the September 25th issue, that is, with a time gap of 3 weeks, Tom and Diane, which is profitable if the price moves a little, and the execution price I chose is only 340.

That's only a few dollars higher than what's trading now. So you can say yes, it is somewhat bullish, but it is also restricted by a price range.

This profitability chart shows that it is profitable if the price stays exactly here. It will not be profitable if the price drops or experiences a significant rise or fall of $20.

What we do a lot in this program is that, given the three-week range, you can extend the period and sell until October 2nd. This reduces the net discount and also reduces the time required to reach the break-even point.

So, yes, this deal is slightly upward-leaning, but it's also confined to a price range, Tom.

Okay. Let's analyze this deal. Looking ahead to the next 21 days, we buy the October 9 weekly options, the buy contract at an execution price of 340, and sell the same contract at a price of 340 in the nearby September 25 options that expire in 7 days.

A calendar of bullish buy options with a two-week spread, in which you pay a discount of about 315. That is your risk, $315.

But as Kevin mentioned, you want the price to reach or be close to 340, which is slightly below the record levels, but you have a range that is often between $333 at the bottom and $348 at the top.

Therefore, this type of strategy is confined to a price range.

I think the key with these calendars lies in the timing of rotating that short option. Apple has multiple weekly options, where you can earn credits by rolling over a short purchase contract at $340 over the next seven days into different weekly rollovers.

This is the key to the solution. Here you can start accumulating good balances, reducing risk, and increasing potential profitability.

Therefore, there is a need to manage the deal here, but it remains a slightly bullish buy option calendar confined to a price range, giving you exposure to the uptrend. You also have the risk of being assigned to that short option within the next seven days, so keep that in mind.

Kevin, you've taken a more direct and aggressive approach, but you don't need a big move to get past the breakeven point in this deal. I looked at the October 16th monthly options.

They will not have profits at this time, so they are avoiding the risk of declaring profits altogether. I considered buying a sell contract with an execution price of 335 (slightly within the range), and against that, selling a sell contract with an execution price of 320.

So, it is a bearish vertical sell contract with an offer of $15. You pay a discount of about $5, which is its current trading price. This is your risk, $500 per spread, and this spread could widen to $15 if the price falls below 320 during the next 28 days until the expiry date.

So, this break-even point, Keif, is only about 1.3% lower than the current share price in this deal. So, when you look at this type of strategy, you have 28 days. If you get a dip where this thing starts to expand, it also gives you a bit of flexibility with regard to trading management.

So, this is a little bolder, but as I said, the breakeven point is only about 1.3% below Apple's current stock price.