AAPL 是一家优秀的公司，但当前估值偏高；由于现价下风险回报不佳，我不会买入。
逐段跳播
目前在我的关注名单上的三只股票是Apple、CrowdStrike和AbbVie。但我目前不会买入其中任何一只。原因与她的业务活动无关，完全在于它的市场估值。
The three stocks currently on my watch list are Apple, CrowdStrike, and AbbVie. But I am not buying any of them at the moment. The reason has nothing to do with her business activities. It's all about its market valuations.
第一家公司完美地说明了这一切，因为第一只股票就是Apple。我认为我不需要说服任何人Apple是一家伟大的公司。我们谈论的是有史以来最伟大的公司之一。你会想到iPhone、Mac、Mac Mini、iPad、Apple Watch、AirPods、服务、庞大的用户群、世界上最强大的品牌之一，以及一个非常难以离开的生态系统。我喜欢这项业务。我的问题在于价格。
The first company illustrates all of this perfectly, as the first stock is Apple. I don't think I need to convince anyone that Apple is a great company. We are talking about one of the greatest companies ever created.
You're thinking about iPhones, Macs, Mac Minis, iPads, Apple Watches, AirPods, services, a huge user base, one of the most powerful brands in the world, and an ecosystem that's very difficult to leave. I love this business. My problem is the price.
Apple的股票今年上涨了约25%，轻松跑赢其余“七巨头”公司，这些公司在2026年的回报较为温和。但“Edge”评分只有51，这根本不算好。这一评分最大的障碍是估值。看这里的估值，我们可以看到Apple股票的远期市盈率为36.7倍，这太疯狂了。
我们谈论的是一只明年盈利预计只有个位数百分比增长的股票。对于这样的增长乏力来说，它实在太贵了。
Apple's stock has risen by about 25% this year, easily outperforming the rest of the "Great Seven" companies, which have seen more modest returns in 2026. But the "Edge" score is only 51, which is not great at all.
The biggest obstacle to this degree is evaluation. Looking at the valuation here, we can see that Apple shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 36.7 times, which is insane.
We are talking about a stock whose earnings are projected to grow by a single digit percentage next year. It is simply too expensive for this lack of growth.
换个角度看，让我们看看远期企业价值与息税折旧摊销前利润之比（EV to EBITDA），为28倍，远高于该公司过去5年22倍的历史平均水平。这两个例子并不是我们增长快于或略高于那些平均水平的情况。我们远高于那些平均水平，而增长根本不存在。
Looking at it from another angle, let's look at the forward market value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EV to EBITDA) ratio, which is 28 times, much higher than the company's historical 5-year average of 22 times.
These two examples are not cases where we grow faster or slightly higher than those averages. We are far above those averages, and growth is simply not there.
这些是我没有兴趣买入的情况，因为风险回报比并不完全令人信服。实际上，它根本没什么吸引力。
These are situations where I am not interested in buying, because the risk-to-reward ratio is not entirely convincing. Actually, it's not interesting at all.
但回到“Stock Investor”网站，我们可以看到分析师对Apple的12个月平均目标价为342美元，与当前股票交易价格几乎相同，没有上涨空间。
But going back to the "Stock Investor" website, we can see that the average 12-month target price for Apple is $342 from analysts, which is almost the same as the current stock trading price, offering no upside.
一家伟大的企业，一只昂贵的股票，我希望你想想你现在愿意为这只股票付多少钱。在下方评论区告诉我。对我来说，如果Apple的利润增长30%、40%或更多，那么我就可以证明支付这一巨额溢价是合理的。
但Apple是一家拥有庞大资本的成熟公司。它确实是地球上最大的公司之一。这并不意味着它不能继续增长。我认为它可以。
A great business, and an expensive stock, and I want you to think about what you would be willing to pay for this stock right now. Tell me in the comments below. For me, if Apple grows its profits by 30%, 40% or more, then I can justify paying this huge premium.
But Apple is a mature company with huge capital. It is indeed one of the largest companies on the planet. This does not mean that it cannot continue to grow. I think she can.
服务业务可以增长，这实际上可能带来更高的利润率。人工智能可能创造新的更新周期。我们刚刚看到了折叠屏手机。生态系统可能变得更有价值，但说Apple能够继续增长，和说Apple值任何价格，这两者之间有很大区别。
Services can grow, which could actually lead to wider margins. Artificial intelligence may create new update cycles. We have just seen the foldable phone. The ecosystem can become more valuable, but there is a big difference between saying that Apple can continue to grow, and saying that Apple is worth any price.
在约为未来盈利的35或36倍时，我认为我们被要求为未来的成功支付很多钱。而且记住我们刚刚讨论的，无风险回报率正在上升。因此，股票所需的回报率不应同时下降。这就是矛盾的根源。
At around 35 or 36 times future earnings, I think we are required to pay a lot of money for future success. And remember what we just discussed, the risk-free rate of return is rising.
Therefore, the required rate of return on the stock should not decrease at the same time. This is the source of the tension.
所以，我不是说Apple的股票会下跌。在当前的估值下，我会说我认为风险回报比不够有吸引力，不足以让我把它加入我的投资组合。这是完全不同的一个说法。
So, I'm not saying Apple's stock will go down. At this current valuation, I would say I don't think the risk-reward ratio is compelling enough for me to add it to my portfolio. This is a completely different statement.
请再次在评论区告诉我，你认为Apple是被高估还是被低估？
And please tell me again in the comments section, do you think Apple is overvalued or undervalued?
Apple是一家市值巨大的科技公司。
Apple is a technology company with a huge market capitalization.
当我看这三家公司——Apple、CrowdStrike和AbbVie时，我整体上喜欢它们所做的工作，但我不喜欢它们当前的评级。
When I look at these three companies, Apple, CrowdStrike and AbbVie, I love their work in its entirety, but I don't like their current ratings.
Apple拥有一个了不起的生态系统，但它的远期市盈率为35倍。问题在于，它是一家成熟公司，其定价却基于对卓越业绩的预期。
Apple has an amazing ecosystem , but it trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 35 times. Well, the problem is that it's a mature company priced based on expectations of exceptional performance.
我喜欢Apple。但我现在不会买入。因为想要拥有一家企业，和愿意为它支付任何价格，这两者之间是有区别的。如果波动给了我想要的价格，我就会准备好。
I love Apple. But I won't buy it now. Because there is a difference between wanting to own a business and being willing to pay any price for it. If the fluctuations give me the price I'm looking for, I'll be ready.
知道了这一点，我可以利用一些期权策略来为自己创造更多现金流，同时等待这些股票下跌。不过，请在评论区告诉我，这三只股票中，如果只能选一只，你希望以更低的价格持有哪一只？是Apple、CrowdStrike，还是AbbVie？最重要的是，你预期的是什么价格？
Knowing this, there are option strategies I can use to my advantage to generate more cash flow while waiting for these stocks to decline. However, tell me in the comments section which of these three stocks, if you could choose just one, you would like to own at a lower price?
Is it Apple, CrowdStrike, or AbbVie? And most importantly, what price are you expecting?
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。