然后最后,期望回报率。各位,我总是设,我将开始设9.5%,因为我总是说9%到10%。我将开始设9.5%。因为这基本上就是历史上的市场回报率。现在,如果你要买一只个股,不要设市场回报率。
你必须设一个更高的数字。但我不这样做的原因是每个人的数字都不同,取决于你的生活状况、你对亚马逊的了解以及你的风险承受能力。所以我要设9.5%。
And then finally, desired return. Guys, I always put in I'm going to start putting in 9 and a half% because I always say 9 to 10%. I'm going to start putting in 9 and a half%. Because that's basically the market return in history. Now, if you're going to buy an individual company, don't put in the market return. You got to put a higher number in. But the reason I don't do that is everybody's number is different based on your life situation, based on your knowledge of Amazon, based on your risk tolerance. So I'm going to put in 9 and a half%.
各位,在我运行完这个之后,请继续关注,因为我要输入我的个人回报率并向你们解释。所以我点击了分析按钮。股价在260。哇,这很有趣。我的低价是160,高价是607,中间价是320。
主要是因为提高了他们的利润率。如果利润率仍然很低,那将大大改变这个数字。所以基于今天的价格,如果我的中间假设成立,我可以预期12.4%的回报率。
And guys, after I'm done running this one, stay with me because I'm going to put in my personal return and explain that to you. So I hit the analyze button. The stock's at 260. Wow, this is interesting. I have a low price of 160, high price of 607, middle price of 320. Mostly because I increased their profit margin. If that profit margin still stays low, that's going to change this number quite a bit. So based on today's price, I can expect a 12.4% return if my middle assumptions occur.
我问你的问题是,这够了吗?老保罗会说这对我来说够了。新保罗不同了。我的生活发生了很多变化,我意识到我净资产的70%到75%投资于房地产和企业。所以对我来说,去买一只个股,我想要一个非常好的回报。
我的回报要求是多少?实际上是15%。各位,这不应该是你的。我不知道对你来说正确的数字是多少。我以前用12%。现在我在那里说,听着,我只想买一家公司,如果它是一笔非常划算的交易。
所以我输入15%,保持其他所有假设不变。我点击分析按钮,对我来说,我需要一个低价。我的低价是110,高价是400,中间价是215。所以我要把它加入我的观察名单。现在它目前是,我要以230加入我的观察名单。
现在,230的原因是,尽管我的价格是215,在它可能跌到230的这段时间里,基本面可能会变得更好,然后我会坐下来重新计算数字,并卖出现金担保看跌期权,这让我能够买入这家公司,以更低的价格获得报酬来买入这家公司。
The question I have for you, is that enough? Old Paul would have said that's enough for me. New Paul is different. I really had a lot of changes in my life where I realized that 70 75% of my net worth is invested in real estate and businesses. So for me to go buy an individual stock, I want a really good return. What's my return requirement? It's actually 15% now. Now guys, that should not be yours. I don't know what the right one is for you. I used to do 12%. Now I'm sitting there saying, listen, I only want to buy a company if it's a screaming deal. So I put 15% in, kept all my other assumptions the same. I hit the analyze button, and for me, I need a low price. I have a low price of 110, high price of 400, middle price of 215. So I'm going to add it to my watch list. Now it's currently I'm going to add it to my watch list at 230. Now the reason 230 is even though my price is 215 in the time it takes maybe to fall to 230 I might the fundamentals might get better and then I'm going to sit here run the numbers again and sell cash secured puts which allows me to buy the company be paid to buy the company at a lower price.
各位,看看我们最近制作的这个短视频,我们的一位社区成员问了我一个非常非常好的问题,我很喜欢。以下是我的回答。亚马逊。我看亚马逊,我喜欢,我能说伯克希尔吗?但他们并不是真正只做一件事。
我觉得说伯克希尔不公平。如果我要说一家做得非常……我觉得我看亚马逊时会想,哦,那太难了,30年,但亚马逊他们只是……我喜欢杰夫·贝索斯的哲学,我总是试图思考什么不会改变,人们总是想要更便宜和更快。
我只是把亚马逊看作成为首选。我的意思是,看看90年代中期的沃尔玛。蒂姆,你在90年代中期上高中。就像我们都去沃尔玛,那时它占主导地位,现在仍然占主导地位。你明白我的意思吗?它是占主导地位的零售商吗?
不。亚马逊在那里,但它不是一家糟糕的公司。它仍然是一家顶级公司,就像塔吉特一样。塔吉特仍然是首选公司。只是如果你问我第一名,我仍然会押注谷歌或亚马逊。
Guys, check out this reel that we made recently where one of our community members asked me an incredible, incredible question that I loved. And here was my answer. Amazon. I look at Amazon and I love Can I say Bergkshire? But they don't really do one thing. Like I think it's unfair for it to say Bergkshire. If I'm gonna say a business that does like very kind I think I look at Amazon going oh that's so hard 30 years though but Amazon they just make I like Jeff Bezos's philosophy of I'm always trying to think about what's not going to change and people want cheaper and faster at all times. I just look at Amazon as becoming like the go-to. I mean look at Walmart in the mid '90s. Tim, you were in high school in the mid '90s. Like we all went to Walmart like and it was dominant back then and it's still dominant now. You know what I mean? Is it the dominant retailer? No. Amazon's there but it's not like it's a shitty company. It's still a top company just like Target is. Target's still a go-to company. It's just if you're asking me for the number one position, I would still bet on like Google or Amazon.