FTC诉讼对AMZN的影响微乎其微，在财报后跳空缺口水平，该股是买入候选。
逐段跳播
让我们关注亚马逊的一年期图表。自8月4日创下历史新高以来，该股已下跌约10%。这显然与其面临的一些新挑战有关。
Let's focus on the one-year chart for Amazon. The stock is down around 10% since hitting its all-time [music] high on August the 4th. This obviously has [music] to do with some of the new challenges it's facing.
显然，我们正在关注联邦贸易委员会以及两党州检察长联盟，他们显然将矛头指向这里。我们看到亚马逊股价下跌的反应，与昨天收盘时这一消息首次传出时的反应类似。
And obviously, we're watching the FTC alongside bipartisan coalition of state attorneys obviously taking aim here. I mean, we're seeing a reaction to the downside for Amazon similar to the reaction we saw yesterday near the close when this information first broke that this lawsuit would be being filed.
昨天收盘时我们下跌了约2%。今天早上又下跌了2%。
We went down about 2% to close yesterday. We're down another 2% already this morning.
联邦贸易委员会与22个州对亚马逊提起诉讼。他们表示，该公司从事欺骗性和不公平的做法，秘密抬高了其在线搜索广告拍卖中的价格。
The Federal Trade Commission along with 22 states filed suit against Amazon. They say the company engaged in deceptive and unfair practices that secretly inflated prices in its online search advertising auctions.
诉状称，在超过7年的时间里，超过100万广告商支付的费用超过了他们意识到的金额，因为亚马逊在未经他们知晓的情况下提高了投放广告的最低价格。
The complaint says that for a period of more than 7 years, more than 1 million advertisers paid more than they realized they were paying because Amazon raised the minimum price to place ads without them knowing.
因此，诉状随后指控亚马逊的计划可能已从这些客户身上榨取了数百亿美元。亚马逊使用拍卖系统设定其广告价格，公司在该系统中对不同类型的广告及其展示位置进行竞价。
As a result, the complaint then alleges that Amazon's scheme has likely extracted tens of billions of dollars from these customers. Amazon sets its advertising prices using an auction system in which companies bid on different types of ads and where they will appear.
但诉讼称，2018年，亚马逊开始秘密操纵其拍卖结果以提高这些广告价格，并收取这些额外费用。
But, the lawsuit says that in 2018, Amazon began secretly manipulating its auction results to increase those ad prices and collecting those extra dollars.
对于此类隐藏附加费和设置人为出价的行为，联邦贸易委员会表示，亚马逊可能非法从120万客户那里榨取了超过200亿美元，其中近一半是中小型企业。
In action such as this hidden surcharge and placing those artificial bids, the FTC says that Amazon likely illegally extracted what they're saying is more than $20 billion from 1.2 million customers, almost half of whom were small or medium-sized businesses.
联邦贸易委员会还声称，这些更高的成本最终由企业转嫁给了亚马逊的购物者。亚马逊表示，它强烈不同意这起所谓的误导性诉讼，并称：“联邦贸易委员会想让公众相信这是一起关于消费者价格上涨的案件。
事实并非如此。亚马逊的定价方式与任何消费者受到损害的暗示相矛盾。我们每天以最广泛的产品选择为客户提供最低价格。”
The FTC claims also that these higher costs were eventually then passed on to Amazon shoppers by the businesses. Amazon says it strongly disagrees with what it calls the misguided lawsuit, saying, quote, "The FTC wants the public to believe this is a case about higher prices for consumers. It is not. Amazon's approach to pricing contradicts any suggestion of consumer harm. We provide customers the lowest prices every day across the widest selection of products."
他们还接着说，在亚马逊，客户去年平均每年节省超过230美元。他们还表示，联邦贸易委员会的说法从根本上误解了广告商的运作方式。他们说，广告商根据实际表现调整出价，而不是根据拍卖机制的描述。
They also go on to say that at Amazon, customers saved an over $230 a year on average last year. They also say that the FTC's claim fundamentally misunderstands how advertisers operate. They say advertisers adjust bids based on real-world performance, not descriptions of auction mechanics.
即使接受联邦贸易委员会关于广告商不调整出价的错误前提，我们估计，由于亚马逊优先考虑广告相关性而非仅根据出价选择广告，他们在2021年至2025年间节省了超过80亿美元。
Even accepting the FTC's flawed premise that advertisers do not adjust bids, we estimate they saved more than $8 billion between 2021 and 2025 as a result of Amazon prioritizing ad relevancy over selecting ads on bid price alone.
亚马逊继续表示，它已多次与联邦贸易委员会分享其数据，并称：“联邦贸易委员会对接触事实表现出很少的兴趣，似乎更专注于试图获得某种金钱上的胜利。”
Amazon continues to go on saying that it has shared its data with the FTC on multiple occasions and says, quote, "The FTC has shown little interest in engaging with the facts and appear more focused on trying to secure some sort of monetary victory."
该公司还表示，即使转换率增长，其数字广告收费经通胀调整后仍保持平稳。
The company also said that the chart it costs it charged for digital ads remains flat when they were adjusted for inflation even as conversion rates grew.
亚马逊似乎一开始就非常强硬地表示自己没有不当行为。他们是否会为了消除不确定性而和解并承认没有不当行为，还有待观察，因为正如我们在Meta身上看到的那样，法律不确定性肯定会对股价产生负面影响。
Amazon seems to be coming out of the gate pretty strong here that they haven't had any wrongdoing. It will remain to be seen whether or not they will settle without wrongdoing to remove the uncertainty here because as we've seen with meta that legal uncertainty can certainly have a negative impact on your share price.
显然，我们知道这只是刚刚提交的。我们已经看到亚马逊进行了反击。
I mean, obviously we know this has just been filed. We've seen Amazon pushing back.
是的，正如你提到的，Sam，这对较小的客户来说可能是个大问题，亚马逊据称在这些客户的收入上有所夸大。我们拭目以待。
Yeah, and as you alluded to, Sam, it could be a big deal for the smaller customers certainly that Amazon uh was supposedly kind of inflating the revenues on. We shall see on that.
但对亚马逊本身而言，我认为总体影响将微乎其微，尤其是考虑到该股已经出现的回调。对亚马逊来说，涉及的金额不会太大。
But for Amazon itself, the overall effect I think will be minimal especially given the pullback we've already seen in the stock here. The dollar amount for Amazon won't be that great.
当然，该股会面临一些压力，但考虑到过去几天股价大幅下跌，且目前远低于高点，我倾向于在股价再次跌至上次财报中出现的跳空缺口（当时业绩表现非常好）时买入。
Certainly there'll be an overhang in the stock here, but I think overall given the fact the stock's come down hard over the past couple days and now hard off the highs here. I kind of like attacking that gap from the last earnings report where they had a very nice beat to be a buyer if it drops down there again.
所以我打算采用传统的10月期权策略，卖出230看跌期权，买入225看跌期权，净收入约80美分。我喜欢这种约20%的风险回报比。此外，从当前股价到陷入麻烦还有约10%的缓冲空间，这相当于从高点下跌超过10%。那将使其进入确认的熊市区域。
So I'm just going out to the traditional October options selling the 230 put buying the 225 collecting about 80 cents net credit or so on the trade. I like that kind of return on risk of about 20%. I also have additional you know about 10% cushion on the stock price from where it's at now till I get in trouble on that following an over 10% drop from the high. So that would put it in confirmed bare territory.
所以我认为亚马逊总体上可能不得不在未来几周或几个月内艰难应对，但从大局来看，我认为这对亚马逊来说可能只是小伤。
So I think overall Amazon will probably have to muddle through this over the next several weeks or months, but in the big picture realm of things, I think this will be a maybe a mere flesh wound for Amazon.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。