AMZN值得买入；公允价值314美元对比现价261美元，意味着12-18个月内约20%的上涨空间，得益于AWS增长和利润率扩张，超过资本支出/集中度风险。
逐段跳播
我要重点强调的第一只股票是亚马逊，这是一个绝佳的买入机会。我计算出该股的合理价值为每股 314 美元，而当前市场价格为 261 美元。
the first stock I'm going to highlight as a great buying opportunity is Amazon. I've calculated a fair value for this stock at $314 per share and the current market price is $261.
鉴于这一差异，我计算出亚马逊股票在未来 12 至 18 个月内大约有 20% 的上涨空间。该公司最近结束的一个季度表现优异，其 AWS 业务增长加速，利润率扩大并接近 40%。
Given that difference, I calculate roughly 20% upside over the next 12 to 18 months for Amazon stock. The company's most recently completed quarter was excellent, reporting accelerating growth in its AWS segment with expanding margins approaching 40%.
当然，亚马逊另一个看涨因素是其营业利润率的改善，因为随着其在全球范围内网络密度增加，服务客户的成本正在降低。围绕亚马逊的两个看跌因素之一是资本支出预算的飙升。管理层将 2026 年的预算提高到 2200 亿美元，高于此前的 2000 亿美元，并且是全球所有公司中最高的。
Of course, one of the other bullish segments for Amazon is the improving operating profit margin as it's lowering its cost to serve customers as it densifies its networks worldwide. Two of the bearish factors surrounding Amazon is the soaring capital expenditure budget. Management team increased the budget to $220 billion for 2026. That was up from 200 billion previously and the highest among any company in the world.
另一个对亚马逊构成看跌压力的因素是客户集中风险，OpenAI 和 Anthropic 消耗了亚马逊出租的绝大部分计算能力。
Another factor that's a bearish weight on Amazon is its customer concentration risk with Open AI and Enthropic consuming so much of the computing power that Amazon is renting out.
尽管如此，尽管存在这些不利因素，我认为这是一个绝佳的买入机会，我的投资组合中持有亚马逊股票，并且我有兴趣增持。
Still, despite those headwinds, I think this is an excellent buying opportunity and I own Amazon stock in my portfolio and I'm interested in adding more.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。