AMZN 在回调时买入，目标价约一年内达到 360 至 370 美元，驱动力来自 AWS 扩张与自有硬件。
逐段跳播
是时候深入分析一只科技股了，在我们的科技聚焦环节中，特别来看Amazon。我正在看Amazon Web的数据，还有你提到的一些让你觉得非常有意思的东西，因为同时有三条故事线在发生。再多讲讲。
It's time to go deep on a tech name, looking specifically at Amazon in our tech spotlight. I'm looking at Amazon Web's numbers and and some of the things that you said it's very interesting to you because there are three stories that are happening at the same time. Tell us more.
你看，AWS上一季度增长了37%，达到422亿美元。这是个很大的数字，我认为他们今晚即将公布的业绩会大幅超出预期，是的，我对此很兴奋。
Look, Am- AWS grew 37% last quarter, $42.2 billion. That's a big number and I think they're going to have a big beat, yes, coming up tonight and I'm excited about that.
在我看来，这就是AI的心跳，对吧？你得看AWS和AI基础设施，还得看广告这块的衍生。这三样东西加在一起，对AWS、具体来说对Amazon，都是一个非常大的数字。
Look, to me, this is the heartbeat of AI, right? You got to look at AWS and AI infrastructure and you got to look at ad spin. All three of those of those things actually are adding up to a very big number for AWS and for Amazon specifically.
他们身处数据领域。他们一心在打造自己的硬件，我对此很兴奋，训练和Graviton。
They're in the data world. They are all about building up their own hardware, which I'm excited about, training and Graviton.
我们明白这一点，Amazon也明白。Amazon意识到，关键全在硬件。再说一次，是硬件，是硬件那个大脑，现在关键全在芯片、云、数据中心、网络，以及正在进入AWS的那些线束。线束是我们实际运行AI的方式，我对此很兴奋，因为这是目前Amazon内部增长最大的部分。
We understand that and so does Amazon. Amazon realizes, "Look, it's all about hardware." Again, it's hardware and hardware that brain, it's now all about the chips, the cloud, the data centers, the networking and the harnesses that are going into AWS. Harnesses are how we actually work the AI and I'm excited about that because that's the biggest growth right now within Amazon.
当我们谈到这个故事中的硬件部分时，Amazon在这个领域有没有空间成为竞争者？绝对有，我认为他们会占据主导，因为他们拥有一样人人都想要的东西，那就是实际的客户。他们确实拥有这些企业，他们拥有零售商，他们拥有买方和卖方，还有所有的供应商。
他们在两端都握有客户。这就像去看一场棒球比赛，同时为两支球队打球，你不在乎谁赢，因为无论怎样你都会赢。AWS正处在这一切的最前沿，我对此很兴奋，因为他们也在打造AWS的芯片组。
他们不再只是依赖Nvidia，他们也在打造自己的芯片。
And as we talk about the hardware part of the story, is there room for Amazon to be a competitor in that space? Absolutely and I think they're going to take over because they have one thing that everybody wants and that's the actual customers. They literally have the businesses, they have the retailers and they have the people that are buying and the selling, all the vendors too as well. They've got the customers on both sides of it. It's like going to a baseball game and playing both teams, and you don't care who wins cuz you're going to win no matter what. AWS is sitting in the forefront of all of that, and I'm excited about that because they're also building the AWS chip set. They're no longer just relying on Nvidia, they're also building their own chips as well.
当我想到Amazon时，当然我们也会想到故事中的零售这一面。这两块业务是否需要在某个时候拆分成独立的公司，因为每一季你都会怎么看它的财报，比如在下一份财报中，当你有这两条并行的故事线时，你认为他们会表现如何？
When I think about Amazon, of course we also just think about the retail side of the story. Do these need to be separate companies at some point because how will you look at earnings every season, and how do you think they'll do on the next earnings report, for example, when you have these two side-by-side stories?
是的，这是个很好的问题，Nicole。我的意思是，显然，垄断始终是围绕它的一个大问题，而且你知道，FTC已经在审查他们的广告收入，而这块广告收入正以27%的速度增长。我完全理解。
不，我的意思是，Amazon是一家大公司，是他们自己把它做大的，那是他们的公司，他们知道怎么做，而且他们做得相当好。
Yeah, that's a great question, Nicole. I mean, obviously, monopoly is a big always a big question around it, and you know, the FTC is already looking at their ad revenue, and that ad revenue's growing at 27%. I totally get that. No, I mean, Amazon is a big company, they grew it themselves, that's their company, they know how to to do this, and they're doing it quite well.
所以，我是这么看的。我认为我们看Amazon，它必须是一个我所说的生态系统，而他们打造了这个生态系统。他们围绕供应商打造它，围绕买家、零售商打造它，他们围绕整个体系打造它。因此，他们拥有如何把这一切整合起来的数据点。
他们不只是做这件事，他们还在打造镐和铲，以及围绕它的一切。不，我真的不想看到Amazon拆分成三家不同的公司，我想看到Amazon打造并壮大他们的生态系统。
So, here's what I think. I think we're looking at Amazon, it has to be a what I call an ecosystem, and they built that ecosystem. They built it around vendors, they built it around buyers, retailers, they have built it around the whole system. And so, they have that data point of how to put it all together. They're not just doing it, they're also building the pickax and the shovels, all the things around it. No, I really don't want to see Amazon breaking up into three different companies, I want to see Amazon building and growing out their ecosystem.
当你谈到广告增长和我们一直看到的支出，以及他们收入的增长约为26%，还有你提到的广告信任，你怎么看？为什么这是故事的一部分？
How do you feel when you talked about the advertising growth and the spend that we've been seeing and that the growth in their revenue was about 26%, and you mentioned advertising trust. Why is that part of the story?
这是个很好的问题。FTC会就此对他们下手。还有22个州也在审查他们的广告以及他们如何投放广告。你看，我们每天都被广告轰炸，我理解这对FTC来说是个棘手的局面。但我不担心他们的诉讼。
他们大概会抖抖裤腿，把钱付掉，开张支票，这事就过去了。到那时他们就可以继续过自己的日子，也许他们还有——我真正担心的唯一一件事，是他们改变实际向我们投放广告的方式。当你看一支铅笔时，你会看到35种不同的铅笔。
你看一件T恤或一件衬衫，你会得到某种东西，你会得到不同的衬衫，而且他们知道你在看什么。他们知道你在想什么。他们知道你需要什么。他们知道你买了一加仑牛奶，当然他们还有杂货店。所以你看，他们有很多业务在运转，而且他们还进入了制药领域。
所以他们有一个庞大的生态系统。但你知道吗？对我来说，关键在于他们如何投放广告。每个人都在投放广告。所以FTC得对所有公司下手，而不只是Amazon。
That's a very good question. The FTC is going to go after them on that. 22 states also looking at their ad advertising and how they advertise. Look, we all get advertised to every single day and I understand that it's a tough situation right there for FTC. But I'm not worried about their suit. They'll probably shake out their pant leg and pay it off and write the check and it'll be gone. And at that point they can go on with their their lives and maybe they have the The one thing I'm really worried about is that they change how they actually advertise to us. When you look at a a pencil, you're going to get 35 different pencils. You look at a t-shirt or a shirt or you're going to get something, you're going to get different shirts and you're going to and you they they know what you're looking at. They know what you're thinking about. They know what you need. They know you bought a gallon of milk and of course they've got the grocery stores too as well. So look, they've got a lot going on and and they've also gotten into pharmaceuticals as well. So they've got a huge ecosystem. Um but you know what? For me it's how they advertise. Everybody's advertising. So the FTC's got to go after everybody, not just the Amazon.
所以这是一种对冲。听起来你并不特别担心FTC这起广告诉讼会带来什么结果。而如果他们真追究，Amazon钱多得是，反正也无所谓，我猜。
So so it's a push. You're not particularly worried about what comes from this FTC's advertising lawsuit, it sounds like. And if they do, Amazon has so much money it doesn't matter anyway, I guess.
当我看这只股票时，我的意思是，3年多来它从118美元涨到了287美元。所以是一波不错的上涨。这只股票有多大的上行潜力？这是你会在回调时买入的股票吗？我知道它最近从高点回落了。
When I look at the stock, I mean over 3 years it's gone from $118 up to $287. So a nice run. What kind of upside potential does this stock have? Is this a stock that you would buy on dips? I know it's pulled back from the highs recently.
完全正确。它可能在回调中回落了，而我喜欢逢跌买入，Nicole，你知道的。过去10天我一直在买Amazon，就是直接买入。我停不下来。我喜欢现在的Amazon。我认为Amazon就是未来，而我们知道这一点。
That's exactly right. It may have pulled back on dips and I love dip buying, Nicole, as you know. And I have been buying Amazon over the last 10 days, just straight buying. I can't stop buying. I love Amazon here. I think Amazon is the future and we know that.
是的，我们可能会把它压一压，但AI是关键，而他们拥有镐和铲。他们拥有数据。他们拥有供应商。他们拥有零售商。我对AWS很兴奋，我认为我们应该看向每股350、360、370美元。我会一路持有到底。
Yeah, we may tamp it down a little bit, but AI is the key and they have the pickaxes and shovels. They have the data. They have the vendors. They have the retailers. I'm excited about AWS and I think we should go about 350, 360, 370 a share. I'm going to hold it all the way through.
当你谈到广告主和支出方时，你写的东西里我觉得有意思的一点是，你说使用Amazon的那些人已经掏出了钱包，这让他们在竞争中占据优势。解释一下。
The thing that I thought was interesting that you wrote also when you talk about the advertisers and the spenders is that the folks using Amazon you said already have their wallets out and that gives them an edge on the competition. Explain.
是的，我的意思是，当你从商业角度来想，你有AWS，对吧？无论是你的网站还是你后端的数据。他们已经在花钱了，而他们想做的是为他们的AI、为Amazon的AI花更多钱。如何把它落地到他们自己的系统里，落地到他们自己产品的销售中。
比如说他们有一把锤子，想卖出更多锤子。他们会利用Amazon关于其他供应商的数据，而Amazon有数据可以卖给他们。所以他们确实拥有海量的数据，也拥有海量的用户。
Yeah, I mean when you would talk think about from business perspective you have AWS, right? Whether that's your websites or your data that the back end. They're already spending and what they want to do is spend more for their AI, for Amazon's AI. How to implement it into their own systems, into their own selling of their own products. Let's say they have a hammer and they're trying to sell more hammers. They're going to use Amazon's data on other vendors and Amazon has the data to sell to them. So they literally have the plethora of data and they have the plethora of of of users.
那你们对 Amazon 有目标价吗，还是没有？我的意思是，你会说它会从当前水平上涨 10% 吗？这样的估算你能接受吗？
And do you have a target price on Amazon or no? I mean would you say it would move up 10% from these levels? Are you comfortable with that kind of summation?
我喜欢 30%、40% 的回报，我看向 Amazon 的 360、370。我认为我们这里会有一波了不起的行情。是的，大概需要一年左右，但我认为这就是我们要去的地方。我认为，如果我们摆脱零日到期期权交易，真正考虑也许以稍长一点的期限投资这家公司，你在这里会得到了不起的回报。
但我也认为，Amazon 也在告诉你 Amazon 的下一个层次，以及他们也在关注的东西，那就是他们也在打造的 Graviton 和 Trainium。他们正在 Amazon 内部建设更新的部门，所以这种增长实际上可能是指数级的，而不只是百分比上的增长。
I like 30, 40% return and I'm looking at 360, 370 on Amazon. I think we have a heck of a run here. Yeah, probably it's going to take about a year but I think this is where we're going to go. I I think if we get away from the zero DTE trading and we actually think about maybe investing in the company a little bit longer term, you're going to get a heck of a return here. But I I also think that Amazon's also telling you the next level of Amazon and what they're also looking at and that's the graviton and the tranium that they're also building too. They're building out newer divisions within Amazon so that growth could actually be exponential and not just in percentages.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。