代理式商务绕过了目前为亚马逊零售业务贡献超过100%营业利润的广告驱动模式，从而威胁到亚马逊的电商地位。
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Amazon在电商领域的主导地位正面临30年来最大的威胁。公司在电商领域取胜靠的是成为需求的聚合者。它并不是购物成本最低的地方，但它是所有顾客都会去的地方，因此供应商不得不跟进。
理解这一点的简单方式是：Amazon是我们一次又一次选择用来购物的那个应用。数亿顾客被他们的Prime账户锁定。
Amazon is facing the biggest threat in 30 years to the company's dominant position in e-commerce. Company won in e-commerce by being the aggregator of demand. It wasn't the lowest cost place to shop, but it was a place that all customers went and so suppliers had to follow.
The simple way to think about this is Amazon was the app we chose to shop on over and over again. Hundreds of millions of customers getting locked in by their Prime accounts.
但现在，代理式商务（Agentic Commerce）来了。这可能会摧毁那个地位。上周末，Amazon禁止Meta的Muse抓取其应用并在Amazon上购物。
But now the Agentic Commerce is here. That could destroy that position. Over the weekend, Amazon banned Meta's Muse from scraping its app and doing shopping on Amazon.
Amazon实际上一直是对代理式商务最敌视的一家。为什么？因为Amazon并不从你购买的商品上赚钱，也不从仓储这些商品或运送它们上赚钱。它赚钱靠的是广告。公司电商利润的100%以上来自广告。而机器人不看广告。
Amazon's actually been the most hostile to Agentic Commerce. Why is that? Because Amazon doesn't make a profit on the items you buy or warehousing those profits or shipping them.
It makes its money on advertising. More than 100% of the company's e-commerce profit comes from advertising. And bots don't watch ads.
今天，我要解释为什么这是30年来对Amazon电商地位最大的威胁，以及为什么公司可能对这个威胁没有任何好的应对办法。这就是颠覆的全部含义。而在这个案例中，Amazon就是被颠覆的那家公司。
Today, I'm going to explain why this is the biggest threat in 30 years to Amazon's position in e-commerce and why the company may not have any good answers to the threat. This is what disruption is all about.
And in this case, Amazon is the company being disrupted.
市盈率大约20倍。这看起来相当便宜，但看看这个基于预期的市盈率。大约是28倍。
Priced earnings multiple about 20. That looks pretty cheap, but look at this price earnings multiple on a forward basis. It's about 28.
我会解释他们过去几年是如何取得一些短期利润的。
I'll explain how they've had some short-term profits over the past couple of years.
我要用fiscal AI深入研究的，是他们的关键绩效指标。这会告诉你是什么在驱动一门生意，并让你洞察一家公司真正是如何运作的。这对理解今天的Amazon非常关键。
And the thing I'm going to dig into using fiscal AI is their key performance indicators. This tells you what drives a business and it's going to give you insights into how a company really want runs.
This is really key to understanding Amazon today.
好，让我们深入研究Amazon的数字。我想先从一些高层次的数字开始。黄色显示的是营收。所以Amazon的增长是持续的。这一点没什么好意外的。
All right, let's dig into the numbers at Amazon. And I just wanted to start with some of the highle numbers. In yellow, what you see is revenue. So consistent growth from Amazon. Nothing to be surprised about there.
但另外两个数字，理解是什么驱动了营业利润很重要。然后紫色的是净利润。所以净利润极高。我刚才提到了那个低市盈率。那远高于他们的营业利润。原因是非营业收入的巨大跃升。本质上，这是Amazon过去投资的一些公司的持股。
尤其是Anthropic，会是这里的大名字。所以这是一项非现金收益，但他们必须把它计入利润表和资产负债表。这就是为什么你看到净利润和营业利润之间有如此大的区别。
But the other two numbers, it's important to understand what drives operating profit. And then in purple is net income. So net income is extremely high. I mentioned that low price to earnings multiple just a second ago.
That's well above their operating income. The reason for that is this huge jump in nonoperating income. Essentially, this is the stakes in some of the companies that Amazon has invested in the past.
In particular, Anthropic is going to be the big name here. So it's a non-cash gain, but they have to put it on the income statement and the balance sheet. That's why you see such a big dist distinction between net income and operating profit.
好，所以我这里要用营业利润，因为那是衡量底层业务经济性的更好指标。这里还有三大驱动因素，也就是他们报告营业利润的三种方式。分别是北美业务、国际业务。这两个是零售业务，然后是AWS。
所以AWS，你现在可以看到，占营业利润的50%以上。我今天不打算讨论它。所以我们把它拿掉。关于他们的零售业务，也就是我今天的重点，你最想看的，是北美的营业利润，337亿美元，以及国际的54亿美元。
Okay, so I'm going to use operating profit here because that's a better indicator of the economics of the underlying business. There also three major drivers, three ways that they report their operating income.
That's with North American operations, international operations. Those are going to be the two retail operations and then AWS. So AWS is, you can see now over 50% of operating income.
I'm not going to be discussing that today. So we're going to take this out right here. The big thing that you're going to want to look at with their retail business, which is my focus today, is what the operating profit is in North America, $33.7 billion, and internationally, $5.4 billion.
那么，为什么代理式购物这个近期的变化如此重要？为什么Muse极其流行、用Muse买东西非常容易这一事实，对像Amazon这样的公司如此重要？因为他们的整个生意都建立在你去Amazon应用上搜索你想要的东西之上。
这就是聚合需求。然后他们会让供应商非常容易地把商品放到Amazon上。他们会仓储这些商品。他们会替你运送。把所有那些痛点都消除掉。这就是他们如何获得一门在用户端和供应商端都非常有粘性的生意。
So, why is this recent change in aentic shopping so important? Why is the fact that Muse is extremely popular and is very easy to buy things using Muse so important for a company like Amazon?
Well, their entire business is predicated on you going to the Amazon app and then searching for the things that you want. That's aggregating demand. And then they're going to make it very easy for suppliers to put their goods on Amazon.
They're going to warehouse them. They'll ship them for you. Take all those pain points away. And that's how they get a very sticky business both from a user side and from a supplier side.
但这里有几件事我想强调，尤其是过去十年。你可以看到，十年前，零售业务基本上不赚钱。一点也不怎么赚钱。如果把国际业务加进去，实际上营业利润率是负的，但进入2020、2021、2022年时营业利润率仍然相对较低。
然后你看到过去四五年营业利润大幅跃升。这值得注意，因为这是Amazon的经营杠杆开始发挥作用。
But there's a couple of things that I want to highlight here, especially over the past decade. So you can see a decade ago, the retail business was essentially not profitable. Not very profitable at all.
If you add in the international business, it was actually negative operating margin, but still relatively low operating margin going into 2020, 2021, 2022. And then you see a big jump in operating income over the past four or 5 years.
This is notable because this is operating leverage kicking in for Amazon.
但如果你看他们所有的营收来源，看自2021年以来，公司增长了。增长了略高于50%。这是所有非AWS的营收来源。所以，它在那段时间里增长了略高于50%，但营业利润远远超过了我们在营收上看到的增长。
But if you look at all of their revenue sources, look at since 2021, the company has grown. It's grown a little bit over 50%. This is all the non AWS revenue sources. So, it's grown a little over 50% over that period of time, but the operating profit is well exceeding the growth that we've seen in revenue.
那么，这里发生的是运营层面发生的事。如果你用Amazon，你可能见过这个。我刚搜索了牛仔裤。你注意到这里，这是一条Wrangler的广告。赞助的。你可以在这里看到。这些最前面的结果，赞助、赞助、赞助、赞助。
你在第一页看到的所有东西，除了这里这一项，看起来实际上都是广告。
So, what happened here is what happened operationally. You've probably seen this if you use Amazon. I just searched for jeans. And what you notice here is this is a Wrangler ad.
Sponsored. You can see that right here. These first results, sponsored, sponsored, sponsored, sponsored. Everything that you see on this first page, except for this item right here, it looks like, is actually an advertisement.
那么现在如果我们回到结果，看看那一个看起来增长明显快于其他的营收项目。那就是广告服务营收。2019年营收126亿美元，过去一年。那是761亿美元。这不仅仅是公司零售业务营业利润的100%。它几乎是200%。
So now if we go back to results, look at the one revenue item that looks like that is growing significantly faster than the others. That is advertising service revenue. $12.6 billion in revenue in 2019 over the past year.
That's $76.1 billion. That isn't just 100% of the company's operating income for the retail business. It's almost 200%.
现在，这不会是完全100%的利润率，但估计是70%、80%、90%的利润率。如果把Amazon平台上所有这些广告都拿掉，他们就不是一门赚钱的零售生意。
Now, this isn't going to be quite a 100% margin, but figure it's 70, 80, 90% margin. If you take away all of these advertisements that are on Amazon's platform, they are not a profitable retail business.
那么，现在想想代理式商务中正在发生什么。如果你用Muse购物，你说：“嘿，我该买哪条牛仔裤最好？看看我过去所有的购买记录。这是我最喜欢的品牌。”也许你提供一点关于你在找什么的信息。
如果它现在去Amazon上，而且不看广告，那对Amazon来说就是一桩亏钱的买卖。
So, now think about what's going on in Aenta Commerce. If you're shopping with Muse and you're saying, "Hey, what's the best pair of jeans for me to buy? Look at all the purchases that I've made in the past.
This is my favorite brand." Maybe you give a little bit of information about what you're looking for. If it's now going on Amazon and it's not looking at ads, that is a money losing proposition for Amazon.
这就是为什么Amazon阻止Muse进入网站并以代理方式购物。这对Amazon来说是一个根本性问题，原因是Amazon正在被去中介化。对投资者而言，公司的整个价值主张在于它是需求的聚合者。
人们选择去Amazon购物。如果他们不再选择去Amazon购物，而只是用Muse或其他某种代理以数字化方式购物，那就意味着他们实际去的那个地点、那个网站，价值远没有那么大。他们会看看Amazon。
他们会看看一家Shopify店铺。他们会直接去零售商那里。谁给他们最好的价格、最好的运送时间，无论顾客在找什么，那就是那个代理会去购买的东西。这是我们过去购物方式的一次根本性转变。它把权力从Amazon手中拿走了。
This is why Amazon has blocked Muse from going onto the site and shopping agentically. This is a fundamental problem for Amazon and the reason is Amazon is being disintermediated.
The entire value proposition for the company for investors is that this was the aggregator of demand. People were choosing to go to Amazon to do their shopping. If they're not choosing to go to Amazon to do their shopping and they're just using Muse or other some other sort of agent to do their shopping digitally, that means that the actual location, the website that they're going doesn't have nearly as much value.
They're going to look at Amazon. They're going to look at a Shopify shop. They're going to go directly to the retailer. Whoever is going to give them the best price, the best time for shipping, whatever the customer is looking for, that's what that agent is going to be purchasing.
That is a fundamental shift in the way that we've shopped in the past. It takes the power away from Amazon.
真正关键的数字是Amazon从每一笔购买中产生的广告收入。这一过程历经数年，但他们几乎把广告塞进了Amazon网站的每一个角落。正是这一点推动了公司盈利能力的提升。并不是他们随着规模扩大而变得更高效，而是他们通过增加平台上的广告，提高了对供应商的抽成率。
这对Amazon上的供应商来说是一个持续的挑战，因为这会夺走他们的利润，但这正是Amazon赚钱的方式。
And the number that is really critical is the advertising revenue that Amazon generates from every purchase. It's happened over the course of years, but they have stuck advertising almost everywhere on the Amazon site.
And that is what has driven the company's increased profitability. It's not that they're getting more efficient with scale. It's that they've increased their take rate from their suppliers by increasing advertising that's on the platform.
This is a constant challenge for the suppliers on Amazon because this takes margin away from them, but it's the way that Amazon makes money.
代理对Amazon构成如此巨大威胁的原因在于，代理不看广告。这是一种根本不同的商业模式，而Amazon按今天的架构并不是为此而建的，尤其是在零售领域。
The reason that agents are such a big threat to Amazon is because agents don't watch ads. This is a fundamentally different business model and Amazon as it currently is constructed today is not built for this, especially in the retail space.
所以，这将是投资者需要关注的事情。我认为所有这些大公司最终都会弄清楚这是怎么运作的。但如果Amazon从凭借作为需求聚合者而处于强势地位，转变为更像一个普通商品供应商，而如今也许更好的做法是在Shopify上搭建你的店铺，并使用他们提供的代理工具。
实际上就是顺应这样一个事实：Muse可能在做大量购物，或者其他代理在做大量购物。你不必支付那笔Amazon税。这门生意建立的基础，就是Amazon是顾客前去完成购买的地方。如果我们未来的购物方式不再是那样，那对这门生意就是巨大的威胁。
So, this is going to be something for investors to watch. I think all of these big companies are eventually going to figure out how this works. But if Amazon goes from being in a power position because they are the aggregator of demand to being more of a commodity supplier and now maybe it's better to build your shop on with Shopify and use the agentic tools that they have.
Actually lean into the fact that Muse is maybe doing a lot of shopping or other agents are doing a lot of shopping. You don't have to pay that Amazon tax. That's what the business was built on is Amazon being the place that customers went to make their purchases.
If that's not how we're going to be shopping in the future, huge threat to the business.
观察点
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。