AMZN 是一项具吸引力的长期投资；当前因高额 AI 资本开支而出现的折价，是市场恐慌导致的过度定价，因为 AWS 的转型将改善 ROIC 与利润率。
逐段跳播
我全年都在说想增持Amazon股票，而我也得以在具有吸引力的价格上做到了这一点。我已将Amazon股票的持仓翻倍。它目前约占我整个投资组合的6%，这正是我此前设定的目标。
I've been talking all year about wanting to increase my stake in Amazon shares, and I've been able to do so at an attractive price . I have doubled my stake in Amazon stock. It now constitutes about 6% of my total investment portfolio, which is what I was aiming for.
还记得我上次给你做持仓更新时，Amazon大约占其中的3%，我当时就说希望它能接近6%到8%。由于我把持仓翻倍，它现在约占我投资组合的6%。
Remember when I gave you my last wallet update, Amazon was making up about 3% of it, and I said then that I wanted it to get closer to 6 to 8%. Since I doubled my stake, it now represents about 6% of my portfolio.
所以，我想和你分享一些促使我果断买入Amazon股票的原因，以及为什么我全年都想继续加仓。其中一个原因当然是估值。Amazon是我会归类为全球“名人堂”级别的公司之一，而这类公司往往不会以公允价格交易，一旦以公允价格交易，我就觉得它对长期投资者而言是一项有吸引力的投资。
当你能够以公允价格买入一家“名人堂”公司时，我认为这对投资者来说是一个极好的机会。因此，对于Amazon，我不仅以公允价值买到，还以折价买到。
So , I wanted to share with you some of the reasons that prompted me to go ahead and buy Amazon stock, and why I wanted to add more to it throughout the year. Well, one of the reasons is of course the evaluation.
Amazon is a company I would classify as one of the world's "Hall of Fame" companies, and this type of company often does not trade at fair prices, and when it does, I feel it is an attractive investment for long-term investors .
When you can acquire a " Hall of Fame" company at a fair price, I believe it's an excellent opportunity for investors. Thus, with Amazon, I not only get it at a fair value, but I also get it at a discounted price .
我为自己测算的其公允价值为每股306美元，而当前市场价格为258美元，我实际买入的价格接近250美元。因此，我预计未来12到18个月约有20%的上涨空间，再加上这是一家我通过折价买入便有信心长期持有的优秀公司。
I calculated its fair value for myself at $306 per share, while the current market price is $258, and I actually bought it at a price close to $250. Therefore, I expect an increase of approximately 20% over the next 12 to 18 months, plus it is a great company that I feel confident about holding onto in the long term by buying it at a discounted price.
当然，Amazon股票以及其他几家公司之所以以折价交易，最大的原因是资本开支的大幅增加。我的意思是，资本开支增加之多，我怎么强调都不为过。以至于我估计Amazon今年将产生400亿美元的自由现金流为负。
这意味着，在公司产生的全部经营现金流——将接近1250亿甚至1500亿美元——之后，自由现金流仍将为负，因为他们将在资本开支上花费超过2000亿、甚至可能2200亿美元来建设这套AI基础设施。
Of course, the biggest reason why Amazon shares and a few other companies are trading at discounted prices is the massive increase in capital expenditures. I mean, I can't overemphasize how much capital expenditures have increased .
To the point that I estimate Amazon will generate a negative free cash flow of $40 billion this year . This means that after all the operating cash flows the company generates, which will approach $125 or perhaps $150 billion, the free cash flow will still be negative because they will spend more than $200 billion, and possibly $220 billion, on capital expenditures to build this AI infrastructure.
因此，你可以以低于市场的价格买入像Amazon股票这样的折价股，原因是这些投资所投入资本的潜在回报伴随着高风险，市场参与者担心Amazon的回报不足以证明这些成本是合理的。
Therefore , you can buy discounted stocks like Amazon stock at prices lower than market prices because of the high risks associated with the potential return on capital invested in those investments, as market participants are concerned that Amazon's returns will not be sufficient to justify the cost.
但我认为投资者对这些风险非常担忧。我并不是说这不是风险，但我认为投资者对此过度担忧了。我持这一看法的依据是，业务表现确实很好。管理团队在资本配置上相对高效。而且这一点一直在稳步改善。
你可以看到Amazon的投资资本回报率。2017年时约为8%，最近跃升至22%以上。所以，他们很擅长配置资本。
But I think investors are very concerned about these risks. I'm not saying it's not a risk, but I think investors are over-concerned about it. My justification for this belief is that the business performance was really good.
The management team has been relatively effective in allocating capital. And that has been steadily improving. You can see the return on invested capital for Amazon. In 2017, it was around 8%, and recently it jumped to more than 22%. So, they were good at allocating capital.
事实上，他们所做的其中一些投资，如果我们看2023年或2022年之前，这些投资的大部分流向了配送网络、仓库、物流、运营、汽车、卡车和飞机。所有这些都是为了支持电商业务。那就是投资的大部分。
如果你看看他们拥有的资产，你知道，他们拥有超过数千亿美元的业务资产。回顾2023年之前，这些资产的绝大多数都配置在电商业务上。传统上，他们的电商业务盈利能力较低，营业利润率不到10%。
因此，他们资产的大部分集中在一个营业利润率不到10%的类别上。
Some of those investments they made, in fact, if we look at before 2023 or 2022, the bulk of those investments went towards the delivery network, warehouses, logistics, operations, cars, trucks, and aircraft.
All of this is to support e-commerce businesses . That was the bulk of the investments. If you look at what they have, you know, they have business assets that exceed hundreds of billions of dollars.
Looking prior to 2023, the vast majority of those assets were allocated to e-commerce businesses. Traditionally, their e-commerce businesses were less profitable, with operating profit margins of less than 10%.
Thus, the bulk of their assets were concentrated in a category that was generating operating profit margins of less than 10%.
如今，自2023年以来，他们资产投资的大部分，以及资本开支的大部分，都流向了云服务板块，即AWS。这是一个历史上营业利润率超过30%、最近接近40%的类别。所以现在，考虑到他们在AI和AWS板块的投入规模，你拥有的是一个近乎均衡的业务，而到今年年底和明年，他们总资产中很可能有超过50%、甚至可能60%或75%将配置到AWS板块，而该板块历史上的盈利能力至少是电商业务的三倍。
因此，鉴于其投资的大部分都流向了盈利能力更强的类别，我有理由认为，他们在这类资产投资上的利润率和投资资本回报率将好于Amazon历史上的水平。
Now, since 2023, the bulk of their asset investments, and the bulk of their capital expenditures, have gone towards the cloud services sector, AWS. This is a category that has historically achieved operating profit margins of over 30% and is recently approaching 40%.
So now you have a nearly balanced business given the amount they have spent in the AI and AWS sectors, and by the end of this year and next year, it is likely that more than 50%, and possibly even 60% or 75% of their total assets will be allocated to the AWS sector, which has historically been at least three times more profitable than e-commerce businesses .
Therefore, given that the bulk of its investments are directed towards a more profitable category, it is reasonable for me to assume that their profit margins and returns on invested capital will be better in this category of asset investments than they have historically been for Amazon.
鉴于未来几年需求将超过供给，这些行业动态正在推动公司的盈利能力。这些资产只针对未来几年。这些资产不是为未来20年、30年或40年准备的。其中约三分之一是长期资产；想到数据中心时，外部结构和建筑被视为长期资产。
这一结构可能持续20年、30年、40年甚至50年。至于数据中心内部的组件，它们属于短期资产，最多可能需要在4年、5年、6年或7年内更换，前提是他们能够充分利用其计算组件，而他们已经成功做到了这一点。
所以，三分之一的资产是结构，三分之二是组件。因此，这些资产几乎全部是为未来几年预订的。所以，就这些组件的整个使用寿命而言，它们已被完全预订。今年、明年和后年，已经有客户排队等着使用他们正在建设的东西。
然后他们剩下那个结构，从中受益，并可以根据客户需求用更新的组件进行更新，同时继续从这一规模中受益。
These industry dynamics are driving the company's profitability, given that demand will outstrip supply over the next few years. These assets are intended for the next few years only.
These assets are not intended for the next 20, 30 or 40 years . About one-third of them are long-term; When thinking about a data center, the external structure and building are considered long-term assets.
This structure may last for 20, 30, 40 or even 50 years. As for the components within the data center, they are short-term assets that may need to be replaced within 4, 5, 6 or 7 years at most, if they manage to make the most of their computing components , which they have already succeeded in doing .
So, one-third of the assets are the structure, and two-thirds are the components. Thus, these assets are almost entirely booked for the next few years. Therefore, for the entire shelf life of these ingredients, they are fully reserved.
They already have customers waiting in line this year, next year, and the year after, to take advantage of what they are building. Then they are left with that structure which they benefit from, and which they can renew with newer components as per customer demand, while continuing to benefit from this size.
因此，我有相当的理由相信，Amazon过去几年所有AI投资所投入的资本回报率将超过、且显著高于其加权平均资本成本。基于我在这里与你分享的一些细节，我对此相对有信心。
Therefore, I am reasonably confident that Amazon will achieve a return on capital invested in all of its AI investments over the past years that exceeds, and is significantly higher than, its weighted average cost of capital .
I am relatively confident of that based on some of the details I have shared with you here.
即使你以25倍的远期市盈率来看Amazon的估值，它看起来也相对便宜。所以，Amazon的整体估值——它比Walmart和Costco更赚钱——在我看来非常有吸引力。因此，基于所有这些以及更多原因，我想持有更多Amazon股票，我也很感激自己能够以这些具有吸引力的估值增持并将Amazon股票的持仓翻倍。
Even if you look at Amazon's valuation based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25, it looks relatively cheap. So, the overall valuation of Amazon—which is more profitable than Walmart and Costco—seems very attractive to me.
So, for all these reasons and more, I wanted to own more Amazon shares, and I am grateful that I was able to increase and double my financial position in Amazon shares at these attractive valuations.
观察点
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。