AMZN 是一只强劲的长期买入标的;优秀的管理层以及 AWS(同比增长 36.7%)、广告和 AI 基础设施的增长支撑这一判断。
逐段跳播
说到电商领域的主要玩家,Neil,你的下一个选择正是这一领域的领军者。是的,我的下一个选择是一家叫 Amazon 的小公司。它……就是一家小型的家族店铺。没错,一家来自九十年代的小企业。
Well, speaking of the major players in e-commerce, your next choice, Neil, is a leader in this field. Yes, my next choice is a small company called Amazon. It's... just a small family shop. Yes, a small business from the nineties.
哦不,我把 Google 选作了我的第一选择。正如我所说,第二选择同样属于巨头这一类别,也就是 Amazon。
Oh no, I chose Google as my first choice. As I said, the second choice is also in the same category of giants, namely Amazon.
我说过,Google“Alphabet”是现存最好的互联网或科技公司之一。我认为 Amazon 整体上是这个星球上管理最好的公司之一。
I said that Google “Alphabet” is one of the best internet or technology companies out there. I think Amazon as a whole is one of the best-managed companies on the planet.
Amazon 是一家其可销售产品多年来持续不断扩张的公司,这大概也是它成为首家实现万亿美元营收的公司。我认为这预计会在 2028 财年发生。所以,距离今天并不太远。
Amazon is a company whose marketable product has continued to expand more and more over the years, and this is probably why it is the first company to achieve trillion dollars in revenue.
I think it is expected to happen in fiscal year 2028. So, not too far off from today.
如今,驱动 Amazon 业务的是 AWS,也就是 Amazon Web Services。它同比增长了 36.7%。这里的订单积压也在增长。利润率正在扩大。
Now, what drives Amazon's business today is, of course, AWS, Amazon Web Services. It has grown by 36.7% year-on-year. The backlog of orders is also growing here. Profit margins are expanding.
曾经有一段时间 AWS 经历了放缓。正因如此,Amazon 的股价受到了惩罚,人们说:“哦,他们行动不够快,等等,等等。”但我们看到业务加速,并且变得,嗯,更赚钱了。
There was a period when AWS experienced a slowdown. That's why Amazon's stock was penalized and people are saying, "Oh, they're not moving fast enough, etc. , etc." But we saw businesses accelerate and become , well, more profitable.
但这还不是全部。我们还有广告板块,它可以被视为目前现存最大的广告板块之一。我们还有订阅板块,它增长得非常快,而所有这些都是他们业务的子板块。
But that's not all. We have the advertising sector , which can be considered one of the largest advertising sectors currently in existence. We also have the subscriptions sector, which is growing very rapidly, and all of these things are just sub-sectors of their business.
是的,线上商店确实仍然占营收的很大一部分,但正如我所说,他们的总可触达市场正在增长。每两年他们就会增加更多。但 AWS 服务在本世纪初并不存在。当她起步时,人们看着她并说:“那么,你当初为什么要建立这种业务?”嗯,我认为他们今天不会再问这个问题了。
Yes, it is true that the online store still makes up a very large part of the revenue, but as I said, their total targetable market is growing. Every two years they add more and more.
But AWS service did not exist at the beginning of the century. When she started, people looked at her and said, "Well, why are you building this kind of business in the first place?"
Well, I don't think they're asking that question today.
我们看到他们提供了一种叫“物流即服务”的东西。把它想象成 AWS,但用于供应链服务。因此,他们谨慎地确保过去二十年左右所投资的一切,就像 AWS 一样,是同一个计划。我们投资自己的业务,是因为我们需要它们。
然后当我们达到理想的范围时,我们说:“好,它对我们有效,所以它肯定也会对许多其他公司有效。”
We have seen them offer something called "logistics as a service". Think of it as AWS, but for supply chain services. Thus, they are careful to ensure that everything they have invested in over the past two decades or so, just like AWS, is the same plan.
We invest in our own businesses because we need them. Then when we reach the desired range, we say, "Okay, it works for us, so it will definitely work for many other companies."
如今,他们已经扩展到医疗领域。他们正通过 Project Kuiper 投资卫星通信。他们目前在做很多事情。是的,我相信他们今年在资本支出上投资了 2000 亿美元。其中大部分用于人工智能投资,但也用于物流。这个数字明年很可能还会更高。
Now, they have expanded into the medical field. They are investing in satellite communications through Project Kuiper. They are doing many things at the moment. Yes, I believe they are investing $200 billion in capital expenditures this year.
Most of it goes towards investment in artificial intelligence, but also in logistics. This number is likely to be even higher next year.
但 Amazon 的核心业务极其赚钱。它已经为他们带来了数百亿美元。我们一次又一次看到这种情况发生。在投资周期中,自由现金流会减少并转为负值。我们在许多大型科技公司身上都看到了这一点。
但过一段时间后,他们会说:“你知道吗?我们正在大量投资。我们会继续大力投资,但这些投资的增长速度会放缓。因为它让业务更高效,它加速了某些业务板块,正如我们所看到的。在我看来,我们将看到公司的自由现金流状况重回上升,而且会非常快,比市场或者投资者可能认为的要快得多。”
But Amazon's core business is extremely profitable. It already generates tens of billions of dollars for them. We have seen this happen time and time again. During the investment cycle, free cash flow decreases and becomes negative.
We see this with many large technology companies. But after a while, they will say, "Do you know what? We are investing a lot. We will continue to invest heavily, but the pace of growth of those investments will decrease.
Because it makes business more efficient, it speeds up some business sectors, as we have seen. We will see the company's free cash flow profile return to the upside, in my opinion, very quickly, much faster than the market or perhaps investors might think.
所以,对我来说,Amazon 再次是那种公司之一。是的,这可能不会是它从这里再翻 5 倍或 10 倍的下一次。但如果你在寻找一家能保证其当前业务会持续改善、其目标市场会日益扩大的公司,那么它就是我认为不应被任何投资者组合排除在外的公司之一。是的,Amazon 对我来说是另一项长期投资。
So, for me, Amazon is once again one of those companies. Yes, this may not be the next time it multiplies 5 or 10 times from here. But if you are looking for a company that guarantees its current business will continue to improve, and its target market will expand day by day, then it is one of the companies that I don't think should be excluded from any investor's portfolio.
Yes, Amazon is another long-term investment for me.
我认为有一点很重要,当我们谈论发展人工智能基础设施时,有许多公司并没有能力承受这个时代。我把 Amazon 看作一个例子,一家花费数十亿美元来跟上需求的公司,而这确实是真实的需求。
但它也在积极努力改善其核心业务,这多年来提升了它的盈利能力。
I think it is important to point out, when we talk about developing artificial intelligence infrastructure, that there are many companies that are not equipped to withstand this era.
I see Amazon as an example of a company that spends billions to keep up with demand, which is a real demand indeed. But it is also actively working to improve its core business, which has boosted its profitability over the years.
我的意思是,看看你刚才谈到的 Amazon 云服务(AWS)业务,Neil。上一季度营收增长约 37%。那是它四年多来最快的增长速度。我们现在谈论的是这个板块约 1700 亿美元的年化营收规模。
I mean, look at the Amazon Cloud Services (AWS) business you were talking about, Neil. Revenue growth of approximately 37% in the last quarter. That was its fastest growth rate in more than 4 years.
We are now talking about an annual revenue rate of approximately $170 billion for this sector.
Andy Jassey 指出,如果 AWS 是一家独立公司,仅凭其营收就能让它在《财富》500 强榜单上排到第 24 位。
Andy Jassey pointed out that if AWS were an independent company, its revenue alone would have placed it at number 24 on the Fortune 500 list.
这是一个公司的例子,也正是为什么我们在讨论人工智能投资时如此多地谈到“七巨头”,因为它们是像 Amazon 这样已经展现出人工智能投资所带来的利润和增长的公司。
This is an example of a company, and that's why we talk so much about the "Big Seven" when discussing AI investment, because they are companies like Amazon that are already showing profits and growth resulting from their AI investments.
他们有自己的专门从事人工智能芯片的业务,比如 Graviton 和 Trinium 芯片。这些芯片现在每年带来超过 250 亿美元的营收。
They have their own businesses dedicated to artificial intelligence chips, such as Graviton and Trinium chips. These chips now generate over $25 billion in annual revenue.
他们的“Bedrock”平台让企业能够构建外部AI模型,如今已提供“OpenAI”和“Anthropic”的模型,而有报告显示,客户仅在今年第二季度在“Bedrock”上的支出,就超过了该平台自推出以来此前所有季度的总和。
Their “Bedrock” platform, which enables companies to build external AI models, now offers “OpenAI” and “Anthropic” models, and reports indicate that customers spent more on “Bedrock” in the second quarter of this year alone than they spent in all previous quarters combined since its launch.
所以,我认为人工智能以多种方式让这家公司成为一个引人注目的故事,但归根结底,你看到的是传统的Amazon在为新时代演进自己的业务,而作为一名长期股东,这一点让我觉得很有吸引力。
So, I think there are many ways artificial intelligence makes this company a compelling story, but ultimately you are looking at traditional Amazon evolving its business for a new era, and that is something I find compelling as a long-term shareholder.
在我让你们去谈最后一部分之前,正如我所说的,关于他们的定制芯片业务,Trinium和Graviton,各自达到250亿美元的规模,这意味着它们合在一起构成了世界上最大的芯片公司之一。
但这只是像Amazon这样一家公司的一个子板块。
Before I leave you to talk about the last part, as I said regarding their custom chip businesses, Trinium and Graviton, at a rate of $25 billion each, which means that together they form one of the largest chip companies in the world.
But this is just a sub-sector of a company like Amazon.
再说一次,这门生意的美妙之处在于,我觉得投资者仍然认为销售AI驱动的聊天机器人订阅是一种有价值的商业模式,但事实并非如此。情况不是这样。
Again, the beauty of this business is that I feel investors still think selling subscriptions to an AI-powered chatbot is a valuable business model, but it isn't. That's not the case.
是的,所以拥有像Amazon这样一家公司,无论哪种机器人胜出它都会胜出,因为它业务的核心非常出色。我认为这让我晚上睡得更安稳。
Yes, so having a company like Amazon will prevail regardless of which robot wins, because the core of its business is very good. I think this makes me sleep more comfortably at night.
Neil和我今天谈到了四家完全不同的公司。一方面,我们谈到了“七巨头”中的两个关键成员,Alphabet和Amazon,它们是我投资组合中长期以来的心头好。
Neil and I talked about four completely different companies today. On one hand, we had two key members of the Big Seven, Alphabet and Amazon, who are long-standing favorites in my investment portfolio.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。