ASML基本面强劲(营收翻倍、高ROIC、低股权激励),但库存上升是一个警示信号。
逐段跳播
让我们看看 ASML。嗯,我之前做过一个关于这家公司的视频,
Let's take a look at ASML. Uh, I talked I made a video about this company a while ago,
无论如何,ASML 这些人制造制造这些半导体光刻机的设备,你可以看到营收绝对持续增长。所以我在蓝线这里。2017 年 110 亿。然后我们到了 17,然后 2022 年 200 亿。
那是翻倍。然后他们刚刚在 2026 年跨过了 400 亿或接近 400 亿。所以又一次翻倍。股票市场,股票在过去一年里大幅上涨。市值是 2600 亿。现在是 6880 亿。自由现金流在爆发。
很高兴看到。这与 EBITDA 完全一致。他们去年赚了 140 亿利润。嗯,让我们看看,基于股票的运营资本。股票薪酬仍然相对较小。我喜欢他们不是一家科技公司。他们没有向任何员工随意发放股票。
他们实际上在为股东赚钱。杠杆是负的。他们有更多现金,没有债务。很高兴看到。库存正在攀升。那很有趣。没想到,但也许他们预计未来需求强劲。所以,他们正在填满。那是一个警示。嗯,他们继续回购股票。
很高兴看到。看看 ROIC。看看投入资本回报率。30% 到 40%。嗯,那里的故事总是,给我看一家公司的 ROIC,我就会告诉你他们的长期回报会是什么。
anyways as ASML these guys make the equipment that makes these semiconductor doctors and you can see the the revenue is absolutely continued to to grow. So I'm at blue line here. Uh 11 billion in 17. Then we got 17 then 20 billion in 22. That's a doubling. And then they just crossed the 40 bill or almost the 40 billion in 26. So another another doubling. Stock market stock has gone up tremendously uh over the last year. market cap was 260 billion. Uh it's now 688 billion. Free cash flows exploding. Good to see. That's right in line with the EBITDA. They made 14 billion profit last year. Uh and let's see, stockbased uh operating capital. Stockbased comp remains relatively small. I I like that they're they're not a tech company. They're not they're not giving shares out the window here to anybody um who who's employed. They're actually making money for the shareholders. Leverage is negative. They have more cash with uh with no debt. That's great to see. Inventory is climbing. That's interesting. Not expect that, but maybe they expect future demand to be strong. So, they're filling up. That's one cautionary tale right there. Uh shares that they're buying back. They continued to buy back shares. Excellent to see. And the look at the ROIC. Look at the return on invested capital. 30 40%. Um the the story there is always show me the ROIC on a company and I will show you what their long-term return will be.
这个频道对 $ASML 的历次判断
Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。