ASML 全部观点

Next one, ASML. Much less risk there from a business perspective. However, risk from a price perspective because we discussed ISML a year and something ago. Good risk and reward here. It was on this part of the quadrant where we'll discuss other buys. But then what happened? The stock price went from 560 to almost 1,500. The business is still the same. The P ratio was in the 30s 20s. Now it is in the 50s. That changes the risk and reward for a long-term investor.

If I look a little bit at the earnings, okay, total net sales 43 to 45 billion. If we look at their investor day here, we are already at the lower end of sales. They project the higher end of sales will be reached by 2030. And then if I look a little bit at net income as percentage of sales going up 30%, everything looks good. So let's say they reach 70 billion in revenues by 2030 times 30% that's 21 billion in profits. 21 billion in profits on a 600 billion market cap is still down the road a P ratio of what 30 a little bit less.

However, I'm investing to double my money let's say in a few years. So to double my money the market cap of ISML needs to go to 1.2 trillion still have a big P ratio like now five, six, seven years down the road. Will it hold? It might but it is too risky and I have seen ISML risky go to less risky now it's risky again if the bubble pops and it goes down we will move it somewhere here again in the quadrant and then it will be a less risky buy because a P ratio 57 is not value investing

Uber looks like a great buy but on the quadrant goes on the bet sides which is a special video that will discuss all those bets some very interesting bets next week subscribe for that

Next we get to ASML, which is just behind S&P Global. It's holding number six. It's a $124,000 position with $91,000 in gains. ASML is one of my favorite stocks ever. I really love this company. It's so cool what they're doing. But I have to set a buyin target at $1,200. If we look at how the numbers play out here, we can assume very moderate assumptions for ASML. The earnings per share growth rate of 12.5%. I'd put a PE multiple of 30 on it. When we look at that, at a $1,200 buyin price, we get a 15.2% return. So, I believe with these assumptions, at $1,200, the stock would essentially double over the next 5 years.

But I have to set a buyin target at $1,200. If we look at how the numbers play out here, we can assume very moderate assumptions for ASML. The earnings per share growth rate of 12.5%. I'd put a PE multiple of 30 on it. When we look at that, at a $1,200 buyin price, we get a 15.2% return. So, I believe with these assumptions, at $1,200, the stock would essentially double over the next 5 years.

I had trimmed ASML towards $2,000 per share and put that additional cash and it's earned a higher return so far.