ASML的EUV垄断地位和服务收入增长支撑其估值,该股票仍是可靠的长期持有标的。
逐段跳播
但让我们谈谈我打算加入投资组合的第二只股票,即 ASML 股票。这只股票已经在我的投资组合中,并且是过去一年中表现最好的。去年我对其进行了大量投资,多次提及,它表现出色。我从中获利 164%,大约 165%。
因此,它是我个人投资组合中最大的赢家。有些人可能会看到一只过去一年上涨 121% 的股票,就自动认为我们错过了机会。但让我们仔细看看市盈率。股价相对于公司的盈利增长和未来盈利增长预测是如何变动的?
如果我们看过去十二个月的市盈率,会发现它非常高,达到 55。乍一看,这只股票似乎很贵。但我们必须考虑未来的盈利增长。看看过去三年的市盈率。这是另一只交易价格高于其真实价值的股票,但由于其快速的盈利增长,其市盈率相当合理,约为 31.18 倍。
现在,让我们谈谈估值,因为事情变得更有趣。进行敏感性分析并查看 ASML,数据将自动加载,感谢 Ticker Data,这是有趣的地方。ASML 的每股收益增长率预计将略低于博通,至少到 2030 年。
然而,我们注意到,基于预期市盈率,ASML 股票的交易价格高于博通股票。ASML 的市盈率超过 31,而博通的市盈率略高于 21。因此,ASML 股票,至少基于其市盈率,比博通股票略贵,尽管其盈利增长率并不那么高。
这是有道理的,因为市盈率主要基于未来每股收益增长的预期率来确定。然而,还有另一个因素极大地影响盈利倍数,即未来现金流的可预测性。换句话说,公司的竞争优势有多强,以确保未来现金流增长的可持续性?
这正是 ASML 脱颖而出的地方。我最近发布了一个关于 ASML 的详细视频,在其中详细讨论了这一话题。简而言之,ASML 是极紫外(EUV)光刻技术的唯一制造商。它处于人工智能领域半导体价值链的顶端。
其所有资本支出最终都回流到 ASML。它没有竞争对手,我仍然看到有人说,“嗯,中国正在接近 ASML。”这根本不是真的。每当这样的头条出现,很快就会被驳斥。我们甚至几天前读到彭博社的一篇文章,其中一位 ASML 供应商表示,中国落后于最好的芯片制造工具(即 ASML 本身)15 年。
因此,随着大型科技公司继续增加资本支出,这些资金正在回流到 ASML。然而,ASML 业务还有另一个方面,许多人完全忽视,那就是客户群管理。这是工作的重要方面。为什么?因为 ASML,当其紫外光刻机收费时,需要维护。
它需要随着时间的推移进行更新。因此,突然间,公司发展了一个经过验证的客户群管理部门,这意味着随着它继续获得更多的极紫外光刻设备,这部分业务持续增长。为什么这如此有吸引力?因为它本质上是一个基于订阅的部门。
随着核心业务的增长,经过验证的客户群管理部门持续增长,这提供了准确可预测的现金流。这就是为什么我对这家公司未来的现金流感到非常自信。再次,这是一个例子,说明由于快速的盈利增长,公司的市盈率可以显著下降,而其股票继续以非常公平的估值交易。
如果到 2030 年,公司在每股收益方面更接近分析师的预期,并且我们看到市盈率显著下降,那么 2030-2031 年的预期回报仍将非常有吸引力。是的,这是一只支付股息的成长股。
但老实说,如果市盈率下降那么多,我会增加更多股份。所以,这就是我计划在我的个人投资组合中增加资本的两只股票。事实上,这两只股票都没有真正的泡沫,至少在它们的交易价格方面。然而,许多人忽视的是,真正的泡沫,至少在人工智能竞赛中,不会在价格上,而是在潜在盈利增长的下降中。
我看到很多人提到这一点,但仍然被误解。然而,我的钱包是为这种事件设计的,原因有几个。首先,我投资组合中的核心资产无论市场状况如何都继续增加股息支付。这意味着我从股息中获得的收入继续每月增长。
在某些情况下,这是好事,因为它允许我以较低的价格再投资股息,使我能够购买更多股份,从而以更快的速度增加我的股息收入。但我的投资组合不仅以这种方式受到保护,还因为它形成了其主要支柱,SCHD,约占我投资组合的 40%。
当人们听到这个,他们自动认为 SCHD 是一个好的立足点,并且是一个极好的多元化工具,远离由人工智能驱动的、快速增长盈利驱动的半导体股票,原因是 SCHD 不太关注科技行业。这在一定程度上是正确的。
但 SCHD 有一个方面,90% 的投资者忽视了,它可能是如果你特别感兴趣于 SCHD 以分散你的高增长头寸,需要理解的最重要的方面之一。这解释了股票的年度重估。现在,重估是什么意思?好的,让我们先澄清一些事实。我们之前提到过
But let's talk about the second stock I'm going to add to my portfolio, which is ASML stock. This stock is already in my portfolio, and it has been the biggest winner in it over the past year. I made huge investments in it last year, talked about it a lot, and it performed excellently. I profited from it by 164%, which is approximately 165% . Therefore, he is the biggest winner in my personal portfolio. Some may be tempted to look at a stock that has risen 121% over the past year and automatically assume that we have missed the opportunity. But let's take a closer look at the price- to-earnings ratio. How does the stock price move in relation to the company's earnings growth and future earnings growth forecasts? If we look at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the past twelve months , we find it is very high, reaching 55. The stock seems expensive at first glance. But we must take into account future earnings growth . Look at the price-to- earnings ratio over the past three years. This is another example of a stock that is trading at a price higher than its true value, but due to its rapid earnings growth , its price-to-earnings ratio is fairly reasonable, at around 31.18 times earnings. Now, let's talk a little about the evaluation, because things get more interesting. Moving on to sensitivity analysis and taking a look at ASML, the data will be automatically loaded thanks to Ticker Data, and here's what's interesting. ASML’s earnings per share growth rate is expected to be slightly lower than that of Broadcom, at least through 2030. However, we noted that ASML stock is trading at a higher price than Broadcom stock based on its expected price-to-earnings ratio. ASML’s price-to-earnings ratio exceeds 31, while Broadcom’s price-to-earnings ratio slightly exceeds 21. Therefore, ASML stock, at least based on its price-to-earnings ratio, is slightly more expensive than Broadcom stock, even though its earnings growth rate is not as high. This makes sense, because the price-to-earnings ratio is primarily determined based on the expected rate of future earnings per share growth. However, there is another factor that greatly affects the earnings multiple, which is the predictability of future cash flows. In other words, how strong is the company's competitive advantage that ensures the sustainability of future cash flow growth? This is where ASML stands out clearly. I recently posted a detailed video about ASML, in which I discussed this topic in detail. In short, ASML is the only manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology. It is at the top of the semiconductor value chain in the field of artificial intelligence. All of its capital expenditures ultimately revert to ASML. It has no competitors , and I still see some people saying, "Well, China is getting closer to ASML." This is simply not true. Whenever such a headline appears, it is quickly refuted. We even read an article from Bloomberg a few days ago in which an ASML supplier stated that China is 15 years behind the best chip-making tools, namely ASML itself. So, as the big technology companies continue to increase their capital expenditures, that money is coming back to ASML. However, there is another aspect of ASML business that many people completely ignore, and that is customer base management. This is an important aspect of the work. Why? Because ASML, when its ultraviolet lithography machines are charged, requires maintenance . It needs to be updated over time. So, suddenly, the company developed a proven customer base management division , which means that as it continues to acquire more extreme UV lithography equipment, this part of the business continues to grow. Why is this so attractive ? Because it is essentially a subscription-based sector . As the core business grows, the proven customer base management segment continues to grow, and this provides accurately predictable cash flows . That's why I feel very confident about this company's future cash flows. Again, this is an example of how, due to rapid earnings growth, a company can experience a significant decrease in its price-to-earnings ratio while its shares continue to trade at a very fair valuation. If the company gets even closer to what analysts expect by 2030 in terms of earnings per share, and we see a significant decline in the price-to-earnings ratio, the projected returns for 2030-2031 will still be very attractive. Yes, this is a dividend-paying growth stock . But honestly, if the price-to-earnings ratio had fallen that much, I would have added more shares. So , these are the two stocks I plan to increase my capital in within my personal portfolio. In fact, there is no real bubble in either stock , at least in terms of their trading price. However, what many overlook is that the real bubble, at least in the AI race, will not be in the price, but in the decline in potential earnings growth . I have seen many people refer to this, but it is still misunderstood. However, my wallet is designed for such an event for several reasons. Firstly, the core assets in my portfolio continue to increase dividend payouts regardless of market conditions. This means that the amount of income I receive from dividends continues to grow monthly . In some cases, this is a good thing, because it allows me to reinvest dividends at lower prices, enabling me to buy more shares and thus increase my dividend income at a faster pace. But my portfolio is protected not only in this way, but also because it forms its main pillar, SCHD, which represents about 40% of my portfolio. When people hear this, they automatically assume that the reason SCHD is a good foothold , and an excellent diversification tool away from AI-powered, rapidly growing earnings-driven semiconductor stocks, is that SCHD doesn't focus too much on the technology sector. This is partially true. But there is an aspect of SCHD that 90% of investors overlook, and it is perhaps one of the most important aspects to understand if you are specifically interested in SCHD to diversify your investments away from your high-growth positions. This explains the annual revaluation of the stock. Now, what does re-evaluation mean ? Okay, let's start by clarifying some facts. We previously mentioned in
与博通和 ASML 一样,人们倾向于看 SCHD,并注意到其总股本回报率在过去一年中增加了约 27% 至 28%,并且自年初以来,它也增加了大致相似的百分比。
As with Broadcom and ASML, one tends to look at SCHD and note that its total return on equity has increased by approximately 27% to 28% over the past year, and also since the beginning of the year, where it has increased by roughly a similar percentage .
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $ASML 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。