ASML 处于垄断地位，需求强劲且订单储备充足，但面临半导体资本开支周期和中国出口限制的风险。
逐段跳播
今天我要谈的第一只股票是 ASML。这不是一个大众熟知的名字。这是一家总部位于荷兰的公司，于1984年从飞利浦分拆出来。
The first stock I will talk about today is ASML. This is not a name known to the general public. This is a Netherlands-based company that spun out of Philips in 1984.
ASML 是做什么的？他们制造用于生产世界上最先进计算机芯片的机器。这些是极紫外光刻系统，也称为 EUV 系统。它使用一种极难产生的光波长，将电路图案蚀刻到硅芯片上，其精细程度足以用于高端芯片。
因此，仅仅制造一台这样的系统，就需要用激光以每秒约5万次的频率轰击熔融锡液滴，然后让这束光经过以极高精度设计的镜面反射，使镜面上最大的缺陷仍然小于一毫米。
What does ASML do? They make the machines used to manufacture the most advanced computer chips in the world. These are extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, also known as EUV systems.
It uses a wavelength of light that is extremely difficult to produce to etch circuit patterns onto silicon chips that are small enough for high-end chips. Therefore, building just one of these systems requires bombarding droplets of molten tin with a laser about 50,000 times per second, then reflecting that light through mirrors designed with extreme precision so that the largest defect in them is still smaller than a millimeter.
除了 ASML，地球上没有其他公司能制造出可商业化应用的 EUV 机器。Nikon 和 Canon 等公司曾试图模仿，但都失败了。
No other company on Earth manufactures a commercially viable EUV machine other than ASML. Companies like Nikon and Canon have tried to imitate it but have failed.
其下一代机器中的一台，每台售价超过3.5亿欧元。它们用大约40个集装箱运输，然后由 ASML 自己的工程师在现场组装。因此，该公司的角色不仅在于制造和销售这些机器，还在于为其芯片制造客户在现场组装这些机器。
One of its next-generation machines costs more than 350 million euros per machine. They are shipped in approximately 40 containers, and then assembled on-site by ASML engineers themselves.
Therefore, the company's role is essential not only in manufacturing and selling these machines, but also in assembling them on-site for their chip-manufacturing clients.
ASML 通过两种方式赚钱。第一种是销售新系统，也就是这些大额的一次性交易；第二种是管理已安装的设备基础。这包括为已在运行的机器提供持续服务、升级和备件。这基本上意味着芯片制造商要让这些机器运行15到20年甚至更久，而 ASML 通过提供帮助这些机器持续运转的服务，获得经常性收入。
这类似于订阅费或年薪，并且随着装机基础的扩大而自动增长，与任何一年新机器的订单无关。
ASML makes money in two ways. The first is through sales of new systems, i.e., these large, one-time transactions, and the second is through management of the installed database.
This includes ongoing services, upgrades, and spare parts for machines already in service. This basically means that chip manufacturers operate these machines for 15 to 20 years or more, and ASML generates recurring revenue from the services it provides to help keep those machines running.
It is similar to a subscription or annual salary, and it grows automatically as the installation base expands, regardless of new machine orders in any given year.
因此，建设人工智能基础设施已使 ASML 的订单量超出其当前的供应能力。该公司 CEO 在第二季度财报电话会议上说过，我引用一下：“在可预见的未来，供应将无法满足需求。”而且存储客户已经预订了我们2026年的全部产能。
因此，该公司的订单积压在今年年初达到约500亿美元。
Therefore, building AI infrastructure has pushed ASML's order book beyond its current supply capacity. The company's CEO said on the second-quarter earnings call, and I quote: "Supply will not meet demand in the foreseeable future."
And that memory customers have already booked our entire production capacity for 2026. Therefore, the company's backlog of orders reached approximately $50 billion at the beginning of this year.
管理层今年已经两次上调了全年指引。他们已经在考虑向2027年和2028年之后扩张。今年第二季度，他们公布总净销售额为93亿欧元，净利润约为30亿欧元。他们计划仅在2026年就实现高达450亿欧元的收入。
The administration has already raised its guidance for the entire year twice. They are already looking to expand beyond 2027 and 2028. In the second quarter of this year, they announced total net sales of €9.3 billion and net income of around €3 billion.
They are looking to generate up to 45 billion euros in revenue in 2026 alone.
同样值得注意的是，这是全球第五大芯片相关公司，市值超过6000亿。这是一家非常有意思的公司。其最新一代机器，即下一代极紫外（EUV）机器，仍处于早期采用阶段。大多数工厂仍在运行上一代设备，因此未来数年将有一个漫长的升级周期。
值得注意的是，仅来自装机基础的收入预计将在2026年增长超过30%。
It is also worth noting that this is the fifth largest chip-related company in the world with a market value exceeding 600 billion. You know, it's a really interesting company.
Its latest generation of machines, the next-generation extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines, are still in the early adoption phase. Most factories are still operating the previous generation, so there is a long upgrade cycle for several years to come.
It is worth noting that the revenue from the installation base alone is expected to grow by more than 30% in 2026.
所以，这是一家实际上垄断了市场的公司，整个芯片行业离开它就无法运转。目前需求超过供应。很明显，ASML 仍然与半导体的资本支出周期绑定。从历史上看，这些周期一直波动很大。因此，如果芯片制造商的支出放缓，无论是与人工智能相关还是其他原因，都会影响 ASML。
So, this is a company that effectively monopolizes the market and the entire chip industry cannot function without it. Demand currently exceeds supply. It is clear that ASML is still tied to the capital expenditure cycles of semiconductors.
Historically, those cycles have been volatile. Therefore, if there is a slowdown in spending by chip manufacturers, whether related to artificial intelligence or otherwise, it will affect ASML.
中国也是一个真正的变量因素。在出口限制收紧之前，中国客户去年占销售额的比例一度达到42%，而这些收入预计将在2026年之前持续下降。不过，这项业务处于真正独特的竞争地位，堪称名副其实的垄断供应商。
代价是同时暴露于半导体资本支出周期和地缘政治决策之下。这两件事在很大程度上都超出 ASML 的控制范围。
China is also a real variable factor. Chinese customers peaked at 42% of sales last year before export restrictions were tightened, and those revenues are expected to decline through 2026.
However, this business is in a truly unique competitive position, as a veritable monopoly supplier. The trade-off is exposure to both the semiconductor capital spending cycle and geopolitical decisions.
Both of these things are largely outside of ASML's control.
因此，这最终与 Rachel 最喜欢的股票 ASML 密切相关；因为如果供应短缺而需求极高，TSMC 就会向 ASML 购买更多产品，并看看 ASML 能生产多少。
Therefore, this ends up being very closely related to Rachel's favorite stock, ASML; Because if there is a shortage of supplies with very high demand, TSMC will purchase more products from ASML and see how much ASML can produce.
这个频道对 $ASML 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。