AVGO基本面强劲，较公允价值约有48%的上行空间，但与台积电相比难分伯仲；若现在买入，说话者可能更倾向于选择台积电而非AVGO。
逐段跳播
博通和台积电因人工智能需求增长，销售额和利润都在大幅增长。但这两家半导体公司中，哪一只股票目前更值得买入？
Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are seeing sales and profits boom as a result of the increasing demand for artificial intelligence. But which one of these two semiconductor companies is the better stock to buy right now?
博通的销售额也大幅增长至750亿美元，而2023年约为380亿美元。当然，这也包括了收购VMware的影响。从更长期来看，这些公司的销售额自2017年以来大幅增长，当时博通的销售额约为100亿美元，如今已增长超过7倍。
Broadcom too experienced a significant increase in its sales to $75 billion. That's up from around $38 billion in 20 23. Of course, that also includes the impacts of the VMware acquisition. looking back longer term, these companies have seen their sales proliferate since 2017 where Broadcom generated roughly $10 billion in sales at that point, those sales have increased by more than 7x.
与此同时，博通不断签署新协议。尽管可能会因竞争失去一些合同，但它们仍在签署大量新协议，其积压订单已增至数百亿美元。
Broadcom, meanwhile, keeps signing new deals. Although they are potentially losing some contracts to competition, still they are signing significant amounts of new deals and their backlog has increased to several tens of billions of dollars.
也许更令人印象深刻的是，这些公司的收入大幅增长，利润率也在扩大。这表明对其产品和服务的需求强劲且有机。销售增长并非由折扣、促销或激励措施所致，而是有机需求增长的结果。
Perhaps more impressively, while these companies have seen their revenues proliferate, their profit margins expanded. And that's an indication that demand for their products and services are robust and organic. It's not a result of discounts or promotions or incentives that's causing the sales increase. It's a result of organic demand proliferating.
与此同时，博通的利润率从2017年的约4%飙升至最近12个月的44%。
Broadcom, meanwhile, has seen its profit margins soar from around 4% in 2017 to 44% in the most recent trailing 12-month period.
与此同时，博通已告知投资者，随着其从收购VMware中协同效应的逐步成熟，其营业利润率应会有所改善。然而，博通越来越多的销售额正从软件转向半导体技术，这对其盈利能力产生了相反的负面影响，因为其软件部门的利润率远高于半导体部门。
Meanwhile, Broadcom has informed investors that as it matures in developing the synergies from the VMware acquisition, its operating profit margins should improve. However, more of Broadcom's sales are shifting towards its semiconductor technology and away from its software, and that has the opposite impact of decreasing its profitability because its software segment generates significantly more profit margins than its semiconductor segment.
无论如何，这些公司拥有出色的盈利能力和利润率，预计将保持非常非常强劲，尽管可能略有下降，但总体仍预计非常非常强劲。
Regardless, these companies have excellent profitability and profit margins, which are expected to remain very, very strong even though on the margin they might move lower, overall they're still expected to remain very, very strong.
博通更偏向轻资产商业模式。它外包了大部分组件制造，因此资本投入较低，但其投入资本回报率也较低，为20%，而台积电为34%。
Broadcom is more of an asset-light business model. It outsources most of the manufacturing of its components, and so it generates lower capital investment, but it also generates a lower return on invested capital at 20% compared to 34% for TSM.
重要的是，这两家公司的ROIC都高于其加权平均资本成本，简单来说，这意味着管理层每向公司再投资一美元，都在为股东创造价值。
Importantly, these ROIC ratios for each of them is greater than their weighted average cost of capital, which in simple terms means that every dollar the management team is reinvesting into the company is adding shareholder value.
说到价值和估值，这两家公司的估值非常相似。当我用远期市盈率来衡量时，……博通的市盈率为18.95。放眼长远，与标普500指数中的平均股票或全球市场的平均股票相比，并与它们自身表现相比，这些估值对这类企业具有吸引力：收入增长超过两位数，营业利润率超过50%，投入资本回报率高于加权平均资本成本，处于蓬勃发展的行业，且具有强大的竞争优势。对两者而言，这些都是有利的估值。
Speaking of value and valuation, these two are trading at very similar valuations. When I measure them on a forward price to earnings basis, ... and Broadcom is trading at 18.95. Zooming out and comparing their valuations against the average stock in the S&P 500 or the average stock in the markets worldwide and comparing it against their own performance, these are attractive valuations for businesses that are growing revenue above double digits with profit margins operating above 50% returns on invested capital above the weighted average cost of capital in an industry that's booming with strong competitive advantages these are favorable valuations for both.
同样，我计算出博通有48%的上涨空间，比较我计算出的547美元公允价值估计和当前370美元的市场价格。
And again, very similarly, I calculated an upside of 48% for Broadcom comparing the fair value estimate I calculated at $547 and the current market price of $370.
所以，当我说这非常接近时，我并没有开玩笑。按远期市盈率衡量，它们的估值非常相似。按贴现现金流估值模型衡量，它们相对公允价值的折价也非常接近。非常非常接近，事实上，这让我很难做出决定。
这是一个艰难的选择。要判断这两者中哪一个是更好的买入股票，并非易事。
So, when I said this is very close, I wasn't kidding. When measuring on a forward price-to-earnings basis, they're trading at very similar valuations. When measuring on the discounted cash flow valuation models, they're selling at very similar discounts to fair value. Very, very close and in fact, this makes my decision very difficult. It's a close call. It's not an easy decision which one of these two is the better stock to buy.
尽管我持有博通股票，对吧？今年早些时候我买了博通股票，但当时的情况不同。如果能重来，我可能会选择台积电而不是博通。
That's even though I own Broadcom stock, right? Earlier this year, I bought Broadcom stock, but the situation was different earlier this year when I made that purchase. If I had to do it all over again, I might pick Taiwan Semiconductor instead of Broadcom.
这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。