AVGO 全部观点

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$AVGOThe Compound发布 2026-08-25
Five Reasons the Bubble Will Burst in 2027 | WAYT?
博通基本面强劲,但由于先前定价和下一升级周期的激烈竞争,其股价面临估值倍数下行压力。
看跌

这就是市盈率,这就是为什么像博通这样的巨型芯片公司会从高点深度回撤。这两家公司都刚刚报告了一些我们任何人都会看到的最伟大的消息、合同和收益,但那些已经在六个月前被定价了。

That is the that is what pe and that's why you have gigantic chip companies like Broadcom for example in deep draw downs off of a tie. Both of those companies have just been reporting some of the greatest news and contracts and earnings any of us will ever see, but that was already priced in six months prior.

Marvell正在强势崛起。博通也在强势崛起。他正在比较让我们看看Marvell。Marvell正在为客户构建定制ASIC。亚马逊是他们最大的客户。所以亚马逊正在构建Tranium芯片,这些是专用集成电路。

它们没有GPU那么广泛的使用。它们没有那么强大。它们不是以同样的方式集群。你知道,你拿一个10,000个芯片的集群放进去。不是那样做的。但亚马逊的Tranium芯片系列,Alphabet正在制造芯片,微软正在制造芯片,Meta,苹果正在制造自己的芯片。

他们正在利用专用集成电路。而为超大规模企业定制芯片制造来自Marvell。这并不意味着亚马逊不买GPU。并不意味着Gemini在没有GPU的情况下运行,但这是计算建设的新竞争。

他们为什么要使用ASIC?嗯,如果他们自己构建,他们可以针对他们认为重要的数据中心内的确切用途进行定制。好的,所以这就是Marvell正在做的。博通也在其中。

Marll is coming on very strong. Broadcom is coming on very strong. He's comp Let's take Marll. Marll is building custom AS6 for customer. Amazon's their biggest customer. So Amazon's building tranium chips which are application specific integrated circuits. They do not have as broad of a use as a GPU. They're not as powerful. They're not clustered the same way. you know, you take a take a take a cluster of 10,000 chips and and put them in. It's not the way that's being done. But Amazon its tranium line of chips, Alphabet's making chips, Microsoft is making chips, Meta, Apple is making its own chips. They're they're utilizing application specific integrated circuits. And that custom chip making for the hyperscalers is coming out of Marll. This doesn't mean Amazon's not buying GPUs. doesn't mean uh Gemini is running without GPUs, but it is new competition for the buildout of compute. Why would they want to use AS6? Well, if they build them themselves, they can customize them for exactly the uses within their data centers that they see as being important. Okay, so that's what Marll is doing. Broadcom is is in there as well.

而且很多人要么没有做足够长的时间来学到这一点,要么忘记了。但我确实认为有一种重力在压低Marvell、英伟达、博通的倍数。他们明白这些公司将进入一个阶段,在下一个升级周期中他们会互相撕咬喉咙,不是每个人都能赢,这就是为什么他们不像三年前那样以30或40倍的市盈率出售。

And a lot of people either aren't doing this long enough to have learned that or forgot about it. But I do think there's a gravity that is pushing down on the multiples of Marll, of Nvidia, of Broadcom. They understand that these companies are going to go into a phase where they rip each other's throats out for the next upgrade cycle and not everybody can win and that is why they're not selling at 30 or 40 times earnings the way that they were three years ago.

但我确实认为有一种重力在压低Marvell、英伟达、博通的倍数。他们明白,这些公司即将进入一个阶段,在下一个升级周期中互相厮杀,不是每个人都能赢,这就是为什么它们不再像三年前那样以30倍或40倍的市盈率出售。

But I do think there's a gravity that is pushing down on the multiples of Marll, of Nvidia, of Broadcom. They understand that these companies are going to go into a phase where they rip each other's throats out for the next upgrade cycle and not everybody can win and that is why they're not selling at 30 or 40 times earnings the way that they were three years ago.

$AVGOMeet Kevin发布 2026-08-25
**Prepare** Critical Nvidia Stock Earnings
博通估值具有吸引力,但资产负债表较弱;OpenAI的AS6流片是看涨催化剂。
看涨

现在,这个墨西哥辣椒芯片是与博通合作制造的。博通是一个非常有趣的标的,因为他们负债相当高。他们的资产负债表有点糟糕,但他们的估值现在非常便宜。他们的交易价格低于1倍市盈率。

Now, this jalapeno chip is made in partnership with Broadcom. Now, Broadcom is a really interesting play because they are pretty heavily indebted. Their balance sheet kind of sucks, but their valuation is dirt freaking cheap right now. Uh they are trading for under a one peg.

根据我们的股票AI,博通有95美元的目标价。问题是我们对公司的资产负债表有红旗,因为他们负债累累。所以,你的资产负债表是红旗。估值是干净的绿旗。他们在上次财报后从峰值下跌了约26%,原因是AS6交付的时间安排。

Broadcom according to our stock AI has a uh $95 price target. The issue is we have a red flag on the balance sheet for the company because they are so heavily um you know indebted. So, your your balance sheet is a red flag. valuation is just a clean green flag. They're down like 26% from their peak after their last earnings because of the timing of delivery of AS6.

那么,这与OpenAI有什么关系?嗯,他们正在为OpenAI做AS6。他们也在做谷歌的TPU。所以,OpenAI现在,嘿,我们准备流片这些,可能对博通是利好的。对整个产业链都是利好的。

So, why what does this have to do with OpenAI? Well, they're doing the AS6 for OpenAI. That's they're also doing the Google TPUs. So, OpenAI now like, hey, we're getting ready to tape these out probably bullish Broadcom. It's kind of bullish the whole stack.

但这些ASIC生产商,想想Marll和博通。博通的利润率比Marll好,但Marll的资产负债表比博通好。Marll也是一家2000亿美元的公司。它上涨了约5.6%。我持有Marll的敞口。

我没有博通的敞口,但我真的很喜欢博通。我现在真的很心动。1.7万亿美元的公司。

But these ASIC producers, so think Marll and think Broadcom. Uh Broadcom has better margins than Marll, but uh Marll has a better balance sheet than Broadcom. Marll is also a $200 11 billion company. It's up about 5.6%. I've got exposure to Marll. I don't have exposure to Broadcom, but I really like Broad. Like I'm really tempted by it right now. $1.7 trillion company.

那么这意味着什么?嗯,这意味着你可能会看到公司更倾向于博通的A6、谷歌的TPU(预计明年扩大规模)、或Marll的A6、或Nvidia的5090或6000,而不是最前沿的Vera Rubin芯片。

So what does that mean? Well, what that means is you might end up seeing companies preferring A6 from Broadcom, Google TPUs, which are expecting to scale next year, uh, or Marll A6, uh, or Nvidia 5090s or 6000s over the bleeding edge Vera Rubin chips.

$AVGOMark Roussin, CPA发布 2026-08-25
The Stock Market Is About to Get a Major JOLT
博通是AI基础设施支出和定制硅需求的受益者;若AI支出保持强劲,其前景乐观。
看涨

另一组值得考虑的公司是博通和迈威尔。事实上,迈威尔也将在本周晚些时候公布财报。这些公司更为复杂,因为博通和迈威尔受益于AI支出,但它们也代表了英伟达最大的长期威胁之一。为什么?

定制芯片。谷歌、Meta、OpenAI和其他超大规模企业越来越希望拥有专门为其工作负载设计的AI加速器。博通和迈威尔帮助实现这些芯片。所以,如果英伟达表示整体AI基础设施支出继续激增,这对博通和迈威尔都是好事。

但如果黄仁勋开始讨论定制加速器的竞争压力,这对这两家公司来说也是另一个重要的积极信号。这就是为什么我同时持有两边的敞口。我持有英伟达、AMD,以及博通和迈威尔,但它们的仓位规模都不同。

英伟达受益于通用加速计算,而博通和迈威尔则受益于超大规模企业越来越多地设计专用芯片。我不需要完美预测哪种架构会胜出。

Another set of companies to consider looking at is going to be Broadcom and Marvell. And in fact, Marvell also reports this week, later in the week. These companies are more nuanced because Broadcom and Marvell benefit from AI spending, but it also represents one of Nvidia's biggest long-term threats. Why? Custom silicon. Google, Meta, OpenAI, other hyperscalers, these companies increasingly want AI accelerators designed specifically for their own workloads. Broadcom and Marvell help enable those chips. So, if Nvidia says overall AI infrastructure spending continues exploding, that's great for both Broadcom and Marvell. But if Jensen starts discussing competitive pressures from custom accelerators, that's another important positive signal for both of these companies. This is why I own exposure to both sides of the equation. I own Nvidia, AMD, and then Broadcom and Marvell, but position sizing is different for all of them. Nvidia benefits from general-purpose accelerated computing. Broadcom and Marvell benefits as hyperscalers increasingly design specialized silicon. I don't need to perfectly predict which architecture wins.

这就是为什么我同时持有两边的敞口。我持有英伟达、AMD,以及博通和迈威尔,但它们的仓位规模都不同。英伟达受益于通用加速计算,而博通和迈威尔则受益于超大规模企业越来越多地设计专用芯片。我不需要完美预测哪种架构会胜出。

This is why I own exposure to both sides of the equation. I own Nvidia, AMD, and then Broadcom and Marvell, but position sizing is different for all of them. Nvidia benefits from general-purpose accelerated computing. Broadcom and Marvell benefits as hyperscalers increasingly design specialized silicon. I don't need to perfectly predict which architecture wins.

然后我们来看Credo。实际上,你也可以把迈威尔归入这一组。投资者需要明白一点:你不能仅仅通过增加更多GPU来构建庞大的AI集群。这些GPU必须相互通信。随着集群从数千个扩展到数万个,甚至可能数十万个加速器,网络的重要性呈指数级增长。

如果英伟达继续谈论更大的AI工厂、机架级系统和巨大集群,这对网络需求是利好。迈威尔在英伟达之后第二天公布财报,而博通则在下周公布。因此,英伟达的评论可能会为这两份财报定下基调。这就是为什么我会密切关注黄仁勋关于网络的讨论。

So, then we move on to Credo. And really, you could throw Marvell into this group as well. This is where investors need to understand something. You cannot build enormous AI clusters by simply adding more GPUs. Those GPUs have to communicate. And as clusters scale from thousands to tens of thousands to potentially hundreds of thousands of accelerators, networking becomes exponentially more important. If Nvidia continues talking about larger AI factories, rack-scale systems, and enormous clusters, that's bullish for the networking demand. Marvell reports the very next day after Nvidia, while Broadcom follows the next week. So, Nvidia's commentary could effectively set the tone for both reports. That's why I'll be listening closely to Jensen's discussion around networking.

迈威尔在英伟达之后第二天公布财报,而博通则在下周公布。因此,英伟达的评论可能会为这两份财报定下基调。这就是为什么我会密切关注黄仁勋关于网络的讨论。

Marvell reports the very next day after Nvidia, while Broadcom follows the next week. So, Nvidia's commentary could effectively set the tone for both reports. That's why I'll be listening closely to Jensen's discussion around networking.

那么,周三晚上财报公布后,实际上可能有两种情况。第一种情况,英伟达大获成功。营收超预期,每股收益超预期,毛利率保持,第三季度指引远高于1040亿美元。Rubin按计划进行,黄仁勋表示需求继续超过供应。

如果我们看到这种组合,我认为你可能会看到AI、英伟达、AMD、台积电、博通、迈威尔、Credo、美光,甚至可能AI基础设施和数据中心股票的显著反弹,因为市场得到确认,AI支出周期尚未结束。

需要明确的是,这不仅是我希望看到的情况,也是我的预期。

So, with that, there's really two scenarios that could take place after the report on Wednesday night. Scenario one, Nvidia crushes it. Revenue beats, EPS beats, margins hold, Q3 guidance comes in well above 104 billion. Ruben remains on schedule, and Jensen says demand continues exceeding supply. If we get that combination, I think you could see a significant relief rally across AI, Nvidia, AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, potentially even AI infrastructure and data center names because the market gets confirmation the AI spending cycle isn't over. And to be clear, this is the scenario I'm not only hoping for, but also it's my expectation.

所以,总而言之,英伟达将于周三公布财报,这可能是本季剩余时间中最重要的财报。我关注的是920亿美元以上的营收、每股收益2.09美元,希望更高,75%的毛利率,以及第三季度指引与约1040亿美元的对比。

对传闻中的需求有何看法?是否有任何销售进入中国?最重要的是,黄仁勋关于基础设施支出的评论。因为如果英伟达告诉我们需求仍然异常强劲,那不仅会加强我对英伟达的论点,还会加强我对AI投资组合中大部分公司的信心,包括AMD、台积电、博通、迈威尔、Credo、美光,以及可能更多公司。

但如果我们开始看到裂痕,我不会仅仅因为我看好AI就忽视它们。这就是关注财报的全部意义。我们的论点应该跟随基本面,而不是反过来。周三晚上,我们将获得全年中最重要的基本面更新之一。

So, in conclusion, Nvidia reports Wednesday, and this is probably the most important earnings report remaining in the season. I'm watching 92 plus billion in revenue, $2.09 EPS, hoping for higher, 75% gross margins, and Q3 guidance versus roughly $104 billion. What's the take on rumor demand? Is there any sales heading into China? And most importantly, Jensen Huang's commentary around infrastructure spending. Because if Nvidia tells us demand remains extraordinary, that doesn't just strengthen my Nvidia thesis, it strengthens my conviction across much of the AI investment stack. AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, and potentially many more. But if we start seeing cracks, I'm not going to ignore them simply because I'm bullish on AI. That's the entire purpose of following earnings. Our thesis should follow the fundamentals, not the other way around. And Wednesday night, we're going to get one of the most important updates of those fundamentals we receive all year.

$AVGOThe Investor Channel发布 2026-08-21
META On TRIAL!! (Full Update) | Nvidia Earnings Preview
博通并未输给Marvell的设计订单;Marvell与谷歌的交易对博通并非利空,博通已实现客户群多元化。
看涨

现在,博通经历了不寻常的一周,在 AMD 可能与谷歌达成协议的传闻中,他们继续成为头条新闻。Marvell 的交易达成,投资者迅速得出结论,认为博通一定正在被设计出局。事实完全不是这样。

Now Broadcom had an unusual week where they continued to be in the headlines on the heels of AMD potentially signing a deal with Google. This Marvell deal crossed and investors jumped to the conclusion that Broadcom must be getting designed out. That is not the case at all.

对于博通来说,他们分散了用户群,对于 Marvell 来说,他们获得了一个了不起的客户。

For Broadcom, they've diversified their user base for Marvell, they pick up an amazing client.

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