$AVGO

博通是一个被低估的投资机会,得益于强劲的AI需求和预期的营收增长,尽管存在客户集中风险。

看涨他说的是几年内
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The Motley Fool发布 2026-09-05 · 20 段内容
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我首先推荐的是博通,股票代码为 AVGO。博通本周早些时候公布了财报。我记得是在周三公布的,数据非常惊人。本季度营收达到 296 亿美元,同比增长 86%。AI 半导体收入目前占总营收的 56%,该领域单独增长了 221%。

至于明年的预测,他们将其上调至 348 亿美元。这意味着总营收同比增长 93%,而 AI 芯片板块预计将再同比增长 236%。

The first name I will put forward is Broadcom, and the stock symbol is AVGO. Broadcom announced its earnings earlier this week. I think it was announced on Wednesday and the numbers were fantastical. Revenue reached $29.6 billion for the quarter, an increase of 86 % year-over-year. With AI semiconductor revenues now accounting for 56% of total revenues, this sector alone has grown by 221%. As for next year's projections, they raised them to $34.8 billion . This represents a 93% year- on-year increase in total revenue, and the AI chips segment is expected to rise by another 236% year-on-year.

所以,需求已经存在。他们与许多优秀的参与者合作。对于那些不了解情况的人来说,博通帮助其他大型企业设计他们自己的 AI 芯片。他们拥有像谷歌这样的大客户,例如谷歌的张量处理单元(TPU)。

So, the request already exists. They work with lots and lots of great players. For those who are unaware, Broadcom helps other big players design their own AI chips. They have large customers like Google with Tensor Processing Units (TPUs).

目前,TPU V7 正在大量出货。V8 产品的出货始于第三季度,预计下个季度将达到可观的数量。Meta 预计将在下个季度开始出货其产品。名为“Halabino”的芯片,一种有前景的人工智能芯片,也已进入最终设计阶段,这是量产前的最后一步。

Currently, the TPU V7 is being shipped in large quantities. Shipments of the V8 product began in the third quarter, with expectations of reaching significant volume in the next quarter. Meta is expected to begin shipping its products in the next quarter. The " Halabino" chip, a promising artificial intelligence chip, has also reached the final design stage, the step that precedes mass production.

所以,他们有大客户,Anthropic 从博通和谷歌购买大量 TPU,而且人们对这一趋势热情高涨。现在,该股经历了一些下跌。我提到过,该股不幸受到了负面影响。上次我们录制时,以及现在我们录制时,股价都在三百多美元,大约是 350 美元或 340 美元。

So, they have big customers, and Anthropic buys a lot of TPUs from Broadcom and Google, and there is a lot of enthusiasm for this trend. Now, the stock has experienced some decline. I mentioned that the stock was unfortunately negatively affected. The last time we recorded, and as we record now, the stock price is in the middle of three hundred, that is, approximately $350 or $340.

市场对几件事持谨慎态度。其中之一是,Lip-Bo Tan 提到,他们的大部分需求来自主要的人工智能公司。你指的是“OpenAI”和“Anthropic”。而且我认为,Rachel,市场对于这类客户成为订单簿的主要部分并不十分满意。

The market is wary of a few things here. One of these things is that Lip-Bo Tan mentioned that a large part of their demand comes from major artificial intelligence companies. You are talking about "Open AI" and "Anthropic". And I think now, Rachel, that the market is not very happy to have this type of customer as a major part of the order book.

难道不是吗?如果 OpenAI 失败了会怎样?如果“Anthropic”失败了会怎样?我相信,如果它们中任何一个失败,另一个大型参与者将会站出来满足对计算能力的需求。我只是相信,计算能力将转移到其他手中,转移到那些提供最佳人工智能技术的公司手中。所以,我并不担心这一点,但我理解市场为何担忧。

Isn't that so? What would happen if OpenAI failed? What if " Anthropic" fails? I believe that if either of them fails, another big player will step up to meet that demand for computing power. I simply believe that computing will pass into other hands, and to whoever offers the best artificial intelligence technologies. So, I'm not worried about that, but I understand why the market is worried.

第二件事,在我把话题交给你之前,Rachel,我觉得有趣的是,博通提到限制其增长的因素之一是供应链。而供应链的一部分是激光。对激光的需求远远超过供应。其他问题是土地、能源和基础设施。

在建设多吉瓦级数据中心时,必须确保有土地和电力来运行图形处理单元或人工智能计算技术。因为你最不希望看到的是我所说的“破碎计算”——即计算能力确实存在但无法运作。因此,他们表示,未来几年一些增长的主要问题之一是:这些芯片能否真正被运行?

担忧在于,如果无法激活,这是否会导致许多这些参与者库存过剩,并是否会减缓或强化一些人谈论的“AI 泡沫”假说?

The second thing, which I found interesting before passing the conversation on to you, Rachel, is that Broadcom mentioned that one of the factors limiting its growth is its supply chain. And part of that supply chain is the laser. The demand for lasers far exceeds the supply . The other issues are land, energy, and infrastructure. When building multi- gigawatt data centers, it is essential to ensure the availability of land and power to operate graphics processing units or AI computing technologies. Because the last thing you want is what I consider "broken computing"—computing that actually exists but is not working. Therefore, they stated that one of the major issues for some future growth in the coming years is : Can these chips actually be operated? The concern is that if it cannot be activated, will this lead to an oversupply of inventory for many of these players, and will this slow down or reinforce the "AI bubble" hypothesis that some are talking about ?

但无论如何,我认为博通现在代表着一个巨大的机会。他们有许多出色的举措。但风险始终存在。人工智能市场的竞争和供应限制确实存在,但需求是存在的,并且从三位数的同比增长率中可以清楚地看到。

But regardless, I think Broadcom represents a great opportunity right now . They have many excellent steps. But the risks always remain. Competition in the artificial intelligence market and supply constraints exist, but demand is present and clearly seen in the triple- digit year-on-year growth rates.

在财报电话会议上,有一件事真正引起了我的注意,我认为它也引起了许多投资者的注意,那就是博通现在有了一个清晰的愿景,正如他们所描述的,在 2027 财年从 AI 半导体中产生 1150 亿美元的收入,然后在 2028 财年达到 2300 亿美元。也就是说,它实际上是翻倍,然后再翻倍。

One thing that really caught my attention on the earnings call, and I think it caught the attention of many investors, is that Broadcom now has a clear vision, as they described it, of generating $115 billion in revenue from AI semiconductors in fiscal year 2027, and then $230 billion in fiscal year 2028. That is, it's effectively doubling and then doubling again.

另一件事,如你所知,首席执行官 Hock Tan 表示,Entropic 有望在 2027 年超越谷歌,成为博通定制 AI 芯片的最大客户。因此,谷歌将退居第二位。

Another thing, as you know, CEO Hock Tan said that Entropic is on track to overtake Google in 2027 to become Broadcom's largest customer for custom AI chips. Google will therefore move to second place there.

正如我之前提到的,与 Nvidia 的通用图形处理单元不同,博通专门为特定的 AI 实验室设计定制 AI 加速器。它是专门为主要云服务提供商设计的。所以,当你审视博通时,更多是关于投资于他们长期偏好的设计合作伙伴,而不仅仅是关注谁制造了最好的芯片。

我认为这是一个重要的区别。但是,是的,这些订单目标,这些定制芯片订单,确实来自少数云服务提供商和 AI 实验室。

As I mentioned earlier, unlike Nvidia's general-purpose graphics processing units, Broadcom designs custom AI accelerators specifically for particular AI labs. It is specifically designed for major cloud computing service providers. So, when you look at Broadcom, it's more about investing in who their preferred design partners are in the long run, rather than just focusing on who makes the best chip. I believe this is an important distinction. But yes, these order targets, these custom chip orders, are indeed coming from a handful of cloud service providers and AI labs.

我相信你提到的客户集中度显然构成了真正的风险。但这些主要客户也是地球上财务状况最稳健的公司之一。而且我认为你也可以看到,是的,你只有少数客户,但他们是我们在见证的人工智能革命中的领导者。

这些公司正在构建我们所知的人工智能基础设施。博通确实是其中的直接受益者。

I believe that the concentration of customers you referred to clearly poses a real risk. But these major clients are also among the most financially secure companies on Earth . And I think you can see too , yes, you have a small number of customers, but these are the leaders in the AI revolution we are witnessing. These are the companies that are building the artificial intelligence infrastructure as we know it. Broadcom is really a direct beneficiary of that.

关于估值:博通股价目前较 52 周高点下跌约 30%。我相信这代表了一个投资机会。我并不是说它估值偏低,但我相信与同行相比,它代表了一个被低估的机会。

Note on valuation: Broadcom shares are currently trading about 30% below their 52- week high. I believe this represents an investment opportunity. I'm not necessarily saying it's trading at a low valuation, but I believe it represents an undervalued opportunity compared to its peers.

我认为它有很大的增长空间,当你看到一家公司预计在下一个财年将其 AI 收入翻倍,然后在接下来的财年再次翻倍时。其股价远低于历史最高水平。我认为这是风险与回报的有趣结合。我认为这是一家真正管理良好的公司。

如你所知,他们正在关注极其庞大且不断增长的 AI 半导体收入市场。所以,是的,当我们进入 21 世纪时,他们能否保持这种增长率?我认为这仍有待时间检验,但他们不必保持这种增长率 5 年或 10 年才能成为一家卓越的公司。

因此,如果你希望利用我们正在看到的这些推动因素,我认为这只股票有很多值得钦佩的地方。

I think it has a lot of room for growth, and when you look at a company that expects to double its AI revenue in the next fiscal year and then double it again the following year. Its shares are trading far below their record levels. I think it's an interesting combination of risk and reward. I think this is a really well-run company . As you know, they are looking at incredibly large and growing markets for their AI semiconductor revenues. So, yes, as we enter the 21st century, will they be able to maintain this rate of growth ? I think that's still a matter of time , but they do n't have to maintain that rate for 5 or 10 years to become an exceptional company. Therefore, I think there is a lot to admire about this stock if you are looking to take advantage of these enabling factors that we are seeing.

是的,当然。在我们转向第二个要点之前,我想补充一点,关于明年 1150 亿美元的人工智能收入,他们说过他们的估计是保守的,不是吗?实际需求要高得多,但他们必须考虑我们之前谈到的许多供应问题。

Yes, of course. Just to add something quick before we move on to the second arrow, the $ 115 billion in revenue from artificial intelligence next year, they said they were conservative in their estimates, weren't they ? Actual demand is much higher, but they have to take into account many of the supply problems we talked about earlier.

另外,另一件我可能低估的事情。另一件事是,正如我提到的,对吧?关于 Anthropic 和 OpenAI,我想说这取决于你和谁交谈。这可能是一个正面或负面的指标。我能理解为什么市场可能会惩罚这家公司;我不介意谷歌作为你的第一个客户,因为我知道谷歌有能力支付。

但 Anthropic 是第一个客户这一事实,也许是让我对潜在收入增长感到有些犹豫的方面。

Also, the other thing that I may be underestimating . The other thing is, as I mentioned, right? Regarding Anthropic and OpenAI, I would say it depends on who you talk to. This could be a positive or negative indicator. I can understand why the market might penalize the company; I didn't mind having Google as your first customer because I know Google is capable of paying. But the fact that Anthropic is the first client is perhaps the aspect that makes me feel somewhat hesitant about potential revenue growth.

与博通类似,它公布了利润,市场对其进行了惩罚,而且理应如此,不是吗?我认为,以博通为例,惩罚它的理由是合乎逻辑的。我不会对该股过于悲观,但我能理解市场为何惩罚它。

Much like Broadcom, it announced its profits and the market punished it, and rightly so , wasn't it? I think that for Broadcom, for example, the reason for penalizing it is logical. I wouldn't be too pessimistic about the stock, but I can understand why the market is punishing it.

不幸的是,正如我们在泛林集团和博通身上看到的那样,只有有限数量的客户需要并购买Credo及所有这些半导体公司提供的产品。

Unfortunately, as we saw with Lam Research, and as we saw with Broadcom, only a limited number of customers need and purchase the products offered by Credo and all these semiconductor companies.

你有像博通、Marvell和Astera Labs这样的竞争对手,它们都涉及这项业务的一部分或某个环节。

You have competitors like Broadcom, Marvell, and Astera Labs, all of whom touch on a part or section of this business.

其中许多(但并非全部)是盈利且受到良好保护的公司,它们正在推动这一需求,并且正是它们从Credo、博通和泛林集团等公司购买这种产能。这造成了一种客户集中的动态,但这些也是该领域的大玩家。

所以,如果你要把资金投入这类企业,我认为你应该对此感到安心。博通受益于对更多定制芯片的需求。

Many, but not all, of them are profitable and well-protected companies that are driving this demand, and they are the ones buying this capacity from companies like Credo, Broadcom and Lam. This creates a dynamic where there is a concentration of customers, but these are also the big players in the field. So, this is something I think you should be comfortable with if you're putting money into these types of businesses. I mean , you know, Broadcom benefits from the demand for more custom chips.

他说在等什么

在2027财年实现1150亿美元AI收入目标
达到或超过1150亿美元的预测
2027财年财报
若实现则支持看涨论点;若因供应限制或需求变化而未能实现,则削弱论点

这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断

The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-05看涨本条
我首先推荐的是博通,股票代码为 AVGO。
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