博通因估值偏低（下跌29%，远期市盈率19.6倍）以及随着客户逐步减少对英伟达的依赖、定制ASIC具备强劲增长潜力，而成为具吸引力的买入标的。
逐段跳播
我会直接看AI市场。我会谈Broadcom。目前Broadcom的估值为1.6万亿美元，所以它已经不再是一家小公司了。它无疑是一只从这轮AI扩张中大幅受益的股票。
Well, I'd go straight to the AI market . I'd talk about Broadcom. Right now, Broadcom is valued at $1.6 trillion , so it's not a small company anymore. It's definitely a stock that has benefited a lot from this expansion in AI.
你可以称Broadcom——我不会把它称为Nvidia的竞争对手，因为Nvidia生产GPU，而Broadcom除其他业务外，专攻定制芯片，即专用集成电路（ASIC）。所以，它们服务于Meta、OpenAI、Anthropic这样的公司，或者例如Google的张量处理器。
You could call Broadcom—and I wouldn't call it Nvidia's competitor because Nvidia makes GPUs, while Broadcom, among other things, specializes in custom silicon, i.e., application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs).
So, they serve companies like Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google's Tensor Processors, for example .
而根据JPMorgan的说法，从2027年开始，专用集成电路（ASIC）预计将跑赢GPU。这当然很有意思，尤其是考虑到Nvidia在可预见的未来很可能继续快速增长，尽管它的一些最大客户已经或可能成为竞争对手。
And according to JPMorgan , starting in 2027, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) are expected to outperform GPUs. This is certainly interesting , especially considering that Nvidia is likely to continue growing at a rapid pace for the foreseeable future, even though some of its biggest customers have become, or may become, competitors.
但你可能认为Broadcom的股价今年会大幅上涨，实际上它相当低。目前它下跌了约29%。按远期盈利倍数来看，这只股票并不贵。它的远期市盈率为19.6倍，市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG）为0.5。所以，它绝对不是一只定价过高的股票。
But you might think Broadcom's stock is going to rise significantly this year, but it's actually quite low. It's down about 29% right now. The stock isn't expensive based on its forward earnings multiples.
It's at 19.6 times forward earnings, with a price-to-earnings- to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.5. So, it's definitely not an overpriced stock .
他们还给了我们一些中期目标。2026财年，他们预计AI收入约为580亿美元。2027年，该收入预计将跃升至1150亿美元。而2028财年，预计将再次翻倍以上，达到2300亿美元。
到那时，他们预计非GAAP每股收益约为30美元。
They've also given us some medium- term targets. For fiscal year 2026, they expect AI revenue of around $58 billion. For 2027, that revenue is expected to jump to $115 billion.
And for fiscal year 2028, it's expected to more than double again to $230 billion . By then, they expect non-GAAP earnings per share of around $30.
所以，它不是市场上最便宜的股票，但他们给我们的不只是一年的预测，而是两年的预测。如果他们能兑现，那当然就不算太贵，对吧？我们说的是一家预计明年收入翻倍、然后第二年再翻倍的公司。
So, it's It's not the cheapest stock on the market, but they're not just giving us a one-year forecast , they're giving us a two-year forecast. And if they deliver , it's certainly not too expensive, is it?
We're talking about a company that's projected to double its revenue next year, and then double that revenue again the following year.
当然，如果AI基础设施的开发和支出出现显著放缓，他们可能无法实现这一点，但鉴于他们的过往记录，他们提供这些中期预测这一事实意味着他们至少能看到2028年之前自己业务将发生什么。
而且，看，如果他们能在2028年实现100%的增长，我不认为到2029年增长会降到10%。所以，到本十年末仍有大量增长可期，而有些人一想到2030年就觉得那还很遥远。我认为在我们现在所处的世界里，2030年一点也不遥远。
这是一个非常有意思的名字，现在它在我关注名单上的位置很高。
Of course, if there's a significant slowdown in AI infrastructure development and spending, they might not achieve that, but given their track record, the fact that they're providing these medium- term forecasts means they see what's going to happen in their business at least until 2028.
And look, if they can achieve 100% growth in 2028, I don't expect growth to drop to 10% by 2029. So, there's still a lot of growth to be expected through to the end of this decade, which some people see as a long way off when they think about 2030.
I think in the world we live in now, 2030 isn't far off at all. It's a very interesting name, and it's now high up my list of interests.
这是不是那种可以作为[公司名称]反向押注的公司之一？Nvidia？我的意思是，你知道，它们有相同的推动因素。但如果我们进入一个我们在频道上讨论过很多次的世界；回到五年前ChatGPT推出时的世界，那是Nvidia的世界，那家什么都做的公司。
除了落在Alphabet旗下的部分，所有训练和启发式方法都是他们做的。现在，当然，你有Alphabet及其张量处理单元（TPU）。顺便说一句，Anthropic正在TPU上训练。
你有OpenAI，它正在以“Halabino”之名开发自己的芯片。你知道，似乎每个人都在开发自己的芯片，而这些公司如此之大，他们不想被Jensen Huang控制。他们不想向Nvidia支付80%的加价。
所以，将其内部化的方式就是设计这些专用集成电路（ASIC），而这实际上对Broadcom有利。看起来这是一个可能持续很长时间的推动因素，即使Nvidia的业务放缓，这对他们来说也是一种有意思的局面。
Is this one of those companies that would be a counter-bet to [Company Name]? Nvidia? I mean, you know, they have the same enablers. But if we move to a world we've talked about a lot on the channel; where it was five years ago, when ChatGPT launched, the world of Nvidia, the company that did everything.
They did all the training and heuristics, except for what fell under the Alphabet umbrella. Now, of course, you have Alphabet with its tensor processing units (TPUs). By the way, Anthropic is training on TPUs.
You have OpenAI, which is developing its own chips under the name " Halabino." You know, it seems like everyone is developing their own chips, and these companies are so big they do n't want to be controlled by Jensen Huang.
They don't want to pay an 80% markup to Nvidia. So, the way to move that in internally is to design these application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and that's actually in Broadcom's favor.
It seems like this is an enabler that could last a long time, even if Nvidia's business slows down, which is an interesting situation for them.
是的，我认为这也是我们看到这种增长的原因。大局是，我们正处于这轮扩张的第三年。但同样，如果你看Nvidia，它是一家5万亿美元的公司，同时还在以……多少？90%的速度增长。所以，他们能赢，Nvidia能赢，但他们看起来有望实现更多增长，不仅因为他们的收入基数更小，还因为他们最大的客户是地球上一些最大的公司。
Yes, I think that's also why we're seeing this growth. The big picture is that we're in the third year of this expansion. But again, if you look at Nvidia, it's a $5 trillion company that's also growing at ...how much?
90%. So, they can win, Nvidia can win, but they look poised to achieve even more, not just because their revenue base is smaller, but because their biggest customers are some of the biggest companies on the planet.
现在，这些公司中的大多数将这些芯片用于内部用途。它们也都采购Nvidia的GPU，因为可以说，生态系统的大部分是围绕Nvidia的基础设施建立的。所以，对于外部公司来说，他们仍然希望继续在Nvidia的基础设施上运作。
但对我来说，可以说这是一个你仍在寻求大量增长的选项，我认为这也是很多投资者关注AMD的原因，因为AMD也终于看到了这种增长加速，因为他们有一款好产品，可以与Nvidia提供的东西竞争。
Now, these companies, most of them, use these chips for internal use. They also all source Nvidia GPUs, because the majority of the ecosystem, let's say, has been built around Nvidia's infrastructure.
So, for external companies, they still want to continue working on Nvidia's infrastructure. But, for me, let's say it's an option where you're still looking for a lot of growth, I think that's also why a lot of investors are looking at AMD, because AMD is also finally seeing that growth acceleration , because they have a good product that can compete with what Nvidia offers.
所以，是的，我认为你说得对，如果，比如说，Nvidia的业务放缓——目前没有任何迹象表明会发生这种情况——那么……目前，Broadcom可能会看到增长显著加速。是的，我喜欢它们所处的位置。
我喜欢那些有规模和实力在Nvidia之外建立替代方案的公司。
So, yes, I think you're right that if, let's say, Nvidia's business slows down, which there are no indications of happening, then... Right now, Broadcom could see a significant acceleration in growth .
Yes, I like where they're positioned . I like companies that have the size and power to, you know, build an alternative outside of Nvidia.
这个频道对 $AVGO 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。